Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series: Billy Crudup vs. ‘Succession’ Round 2

Last Year’s Winner: Tobias Menzies, “The Crown”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: “The Morning Show” star Billy Crudup is the most recent Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series winner eligible this year, after taking the same off year many of his past fellow nominees took due to pandemic delays.
Notable Ineligible Series: O-T Fagbenle, Bradley Whitford, and Max Minghella, “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Season 6 is not eligible); Jeffrey Wright, “Westworld” (Season 4 is not eligible); Giancarlo Esposito, “The Mandalorian” (Season 3 was not eligible); John Lithgow, “Perry Mason” (Season 2 is not eligible)

This article will be updated throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2022 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting took place from June 16 to June 27, with the official Emmy nominations announced on Tuesday, July 12. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will be given out over two consecutive nights on Saturday, September 3 and Sunday, September 4, with an edited presentation on the ceremonies to be broadcast on Saturday, Sept. 10, at 8:00 p.m. ET on FXX. Finally, the 74rd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, September 12, and air live on NBC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

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The State of the Race

It has been almost two years since Billy Crudup won an Emmy for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series for the first season of “The Morning Show” in an upset, beating the multiple “Succession” nominees who had finally made the cut after Season 1 was completely shut out of any acting nominations.

With the popularity of the HBO drama still growing, and the popularity of the expensive Apple TV+ series waning, it does seem like this is the year the TV Academy will make good on awarding one of the supporting actors from “Succession.” It still feels like they are playing catch-up though.

Most critics would argue that, after the explosive, revelatory finale, Matthew Macfadyen as Tom Wambsgans was the Season 3 MVP. However, Kieran Culkin, who was the one projected to win in 2020, has been the one that is more on the campaign trail, recently appearing on “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.” It’s also not like he just sat on his thumbs the entire Season 3, he did have that unfortunate nude photo moment that was so memorable it even became a meme. Again, given how Season 3 ended, there is sure to be more great material for Macfadyen and his young partner-in-crime Nicholas Braun come Season 4 (which is currently filming), but 2022 feels like Culkin’s year at the Emmys.

That is, unless Crudup wins in another upset, which is entirely possible. Looking at the Emmy nominations this year, there is clearly still a fervent “The Morning Show” fanbase within the TV Academy, and Crudup is the star that best understands his assignment. His vicious TV producer character Cory Ellison would even be one of the few able to go toe-to-toe against the media moguls of “Succession.” Factor in co-star Reese Witherspoon’s surprise nomination for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series, and how his character was involved in a love triangle with her’s in Season 2, and Crudup emerges even more as an Emmy contender. Voters certainly had their eyes on him.

Meanwhile pretty much everyone in the world had their eyes on “Squid Game” last year, and in another time Oh Yeong-soo’s Golden Globe win would have boosted him to more of a frontrunner status, but it just does not seem like he and co-star Park Hae-soo (who’s nomination here was a welcome surprise) will end up with the award. The language barrier has not seemed to be much of an issue for the cast of the blockbuster Netflix series, which is encouraging, but it is hard to be based in South Korea, and have to fly all the way to Los Angeles to campaign for the award. Maybe both of their characters’ arcs coming to an end in Season 1, while other nominees are still going on their shows, will be the element that convinces voters that they should award “Squid Game” in this category as well.

Finally, rounding out the nominees is another pair who actually play a couple on “Severance,” Apple TV+’s freshman hit drama. Emmy winner John Turturro and Oscar winner Christopher Walken are no strangers to award shows, but with many viewers still getting a feel for the story “Severance” is telling, a win this year for either of the veteran actors feels a little premature.

Power Rankings:

1. Kieran Culkin, “Succession” (HBO)

2. Matthew Macfadyen, “Succession” (HBO)

3. Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)

4. Oh Yeong-soo, “Squid Game” (Netflix)

5. John Tuturro, “Severance” (Apple TV+)

6. Nicholas Braun, “Succession” (HBO)

7. Christopher Walken, “Severance” (Apple TV+)

8. Park Hae-soo, “Squid Game” (Netflix)

Will Win: Kieran Culkin, “Succession”
Could Win: Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
Should Win: Matthew Macfadyen, “Succession”

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