Encouraging: How 10 QBs whose rookie seasons were comparable to Tua’s played in Year 2

So what’s realistic to expect from Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in his second season, now that the front office has augmented his support cast?

Here’s the good news from a Miami Herald analysis: Of the 10 quarterbacks this century who started at least six games as a rookie and whose rookie season performances were closest to Tagovailoa’s, nine of them produced better numbers, including a higher pass rating in Year 2.

Seven of those nine saw their passer ratings jump significantly (anywhere from 7 to 29 points) in Year 2.

And the only quarterback of those 10 who performed worse in Year 2 — Matt Ryan — took a jump in Year 3 and has gone on to enjoy an outstanding career.

So if this historical perspective is taken into account — combined with his skill set coupled with the Dolphins’ bolstered cast of offensive weapons — there’s every reason to be encouraged about Tagovailoa, who had an 87.1 passer rating as a rookie and a 6-3 record, with 11 touchdowns, 5 interceptions and 181.4 passing yards per game.

For perspective, here’s a look at those 10 QBs whose rookie seasons were closest to Tagovailoa’s in quality and how they did in Year 2:

▪ Derek Carr: His passer rating was far worse than Tagovailoa’s as a rookie (76.6), though he made the cut in our comparison study because of his decent 21-to-12 TD-to-INT ratio as a rookie.

Before his second season, the Raiders added center Rodney Hudson (who became an immediate Pro Bowler) and receiver Michael Crabtree (who caught 85 passes for 922 yards that next season), and Carr made a huge jump in Year 2, with his passer rating soaring to 91.1, with 32 TDs and 13 picks. He threw for 249 yards per game, a big jump from 204.4 as a rookie.

▪ Carson Wentz: His numbers were worse than Tagovailoa’s as a rookie, both in passer rating (79.3), TDs to interceptions (16-14) and record (7-9).

Then Philadelphia signed receivers Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith and running back LaGarrett Blount (766 yards, 4.4 per carry) after Wentz’s rookie season, and Wentz took off, boosting his passer rating in Year 2 to 101.9, with 33 TDs, 7 interceptions and an 11-2 record.

▪ Andrew Luck: Even without any hugely impactful offensive additions (besides right tackle Gosder Cherilus) after his first NFL season, Luck had second-year jumps in passer rating (76.5 as a rookie to 87) and made fewer mistakes (19 TDs, 12 picks in year two compared with 21, 17 in Year 1).

▪ Lamar Jackson: The Ravens added several key offensive players after Jackson’s first year — including first-round receiver Marquise Brown and running back Mark Ingram — and Jackson’s passer rating rose from 84.5 as a rookie to 113.2 in Year 2, with his TDs-to-INTs improving dramatically from 6-to-3 to 36-to-6.

This obviously isn’t the ideal comparison to Tagovailoa because of Jackson’s elite skills as a runner and the difference in their skill sets. But the enormous jump in his passer rating with better weapons resonates.

▪ Kyler Murray: The Cardinals added All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins before Murray’s second season, and Murray jumped from 87.4 to 94.3 in passer rating, 20-12 TDs-to-INTS to 26-to-12, 232.6 passing yards per game to 248 and from 5-10-1 to 8-8. Hopkins caught 115 for 1,407.

A similar jump — if not better — should be expected from Tagovailoa, who had a nearly identical passer rating and has been given two new excellent receivers with Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle.

▪ Others who improved their passer ratings in Year 2 after offensive additions: Joe Flacco (from 80.3 passer rating to 88.9) after the Ravens added center Matt Birk; Andy Dalton (80.4 to 87.4) after the Bengals added all-rookie guard Kevin Zeitler and running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis (1,094 yards rushing); Cam Newton (84.5 to 86.2) after Carolina added three-time Pro Bowl fullback Mike Tolbert.

Jameis Winston improved slightly (84.2 to 86.1) despite no significant offensive upgrades from the Buccaneers.

▪ Of these 10 quarterbacks this century whose rookie seasons were closest in quality to Tagovailoa, only Ryan declined in Year 2, with his passer rating falling from 87.7 to 80.9 and his completion percentage from 61.1 to 58.3.

That was puzzling because the Falcons added Pro Bowl tight end Tony Gonzalez before Ryan’s second second, and he caught 83 passes for 867 yards that next year.

But Ryan improved appreciably over the ensuing three seasons and has become a four-time Pro Bowler. If Tagovailoa becomes Ryan, the Dolphins would gladly take that.

Bottom line: History tells us that quarterbacks who played much like Tagovailoa as rookies improved in Year 2, some by a lot. It hasn’t always been sustainable (see Wentz), but the overall results are encouraging if you’re looking for historical data.

Here’s a link to part two of my three-part Tagovailoa series in January; part 2 compares Tagovailoa’s rookie numbers to 25 other quarterbacks this century.

Here’s my Tuesday Marlins piece with Craig Mish with lots of nuggets, including the latest on trade deadline chatter and Starling Marte’s future.