End of a Big 12 era takes center stage Saturday. Here’s what you need to know
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This week’s premier matchup in all of college football? Look no further than the conference of chaos.
Saturday marks the Big 12’s final edition of the Red River Showdown before Texas and Oklahoma take the classic series with them to the SEC. The Longhorns and Sooners may share the conference’s most prestigious rivalry this week, but a year from now that honor will be held by Utah and BYU. I’m only a tad bit terrified for the future of our state. This realignment business sure is a migraine machine.
As for 2023, Saturday’s showdown between No. 3 Texas and No. 12 Oklahoma should be wildly entertaining, with the winner earning an inside track to the Big 12 title game. The race is on!
After five weeks, however, how much do we really know about either side?
The Longhorns dumped a sea of gasoline on the “Texas is back” fire after taking down Alabama on the road in early September, paving the way for a 5-0 start and all the hype you’d expect. Let’s be honest here: Three of those victories came against backup quarterbacks, another came against career nomad JT Daniels and the Alabama win has lost some luster, as this appears to be the worst edition of the Crimson Tide we’ve seen in 15 or so years. Is Texas truly back, or has it just been fortunate?
Similarly, Oklahoma has dominated to the tune of 47.4 points each week while allowing just 10.8, but the Sooners’ schedule has offered little resistance thus far. They’ve played three Group of Five programs along with Cincinnati and Iowa State — not exactly the best and brightest of the Big 12.
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I’m not saying Texas and Oklahoma are bad or anything along those lines. They’re both crazy talented and hold the conference in the palm of their hands. With that being said, playing each other will allow us to more accurately evaluate these squads and determine their legitimacy and true ceilings.
The Longhorns have yet to face a quarterback as lethal as Dillon Gabriel, who may be the best in the league. The Sooners haven’t been asked to stop anyone as capable of beating them single-handedly as Texas running back Jonathon Brooks. Neither offense has faced such a staunch defense nor needed to navigate a tight affair. There will be some serious testing Saturday.
It’s possible that the Big 12 title game will end up as a Red River rematch — which absolutely no one should be hoping for — but Saturday will put Texas and Oklahoma in a vulnerable position for the rest of the league to observe how either side can be defeated. At some point, someone will need to stand up to these SEC-bound villains. The conference of chaos deserves a much more interesting championship matchup in December than just replaying this one.
Bear with me
This message is for Dave Aranda and his Baylor Bears. To quote the great Shaquille O’Neal: “I owe you an apology. I wasn’t really familiar with your game.”
Last week, I wrote that Baylor had been “shockingly putrid” so far this year. I called Aranda’s Year 4 operation “depressing” and proclaimed that the team’s season “may already be dead.” When the Bears sank into a 35-7 third-quarter hole at UCF last Saturday, it made complete sense. No one should have felt surprised. Such a drubbing was inevitable.
Oh, foolish me.
This is the conference of chaos. It will take your expectations, guarantees and inevitabilities and tear them to shreds right in front of you. It doesn’t care about your feelings whatsoever.
Such was the case Saturday in Orlando, as the once-downtrodden, punchless Bears suddenly turned into a steamrolling force, manhandling the game’s final 19 minutes for 29 unanswered points to win in dramatic comeback fashion.
Wait, what?
Yes, the same Baylor squad that had dropped seven straight FBS matchups heading into that game somehow managed to compile two touchdown drives, a pair of field goals and a defensive score over a 19-minute span to stun UCF in its Big 12 home debut.
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In the fourth quarter, Baylor forced two turnovers, succeeded on consecutive two-point conversion attempts and did it all on the road. Given the dominance of the finish, even had the Bears trailed by 40 points, it still felt as if they would have found a way to win.
So much for a “dead” season. Whoops.
No, Baylor is very much alive and kicking in this first week of October. Quarterback Blake Shapen is back from his early-season MCL injury and proved spectacular in Orlando. At long last, the Bears’ offense is wide awake.
Less than a week after teetering on the edge of both a 1-4 start and full-on program collapse, Baylor has rallied to even its conference record at 1-1 and remain amid the thick of its league foes. If the UCF upset sparked some newfound momentum for the Bears, it came at a perfect time — the next four outings for Aranda’s squad are extremely winnable.
October in Waco could be as encouraging as September was embarrassing. Following an injury-riddled and underwhelming Texas Tech team this weekend, Baylor gets a bye, heads to Cincinnati and then returns home to face Iowa State and Houston. You couldn’t ask for a cushier stretch in league play.
Should the Bears run the table against these four Big 12 doormats — or at least go 3-1 — they could feasibly scrap back into the conference title game conversation. Such a feat would be a miracle given Baylor’s start to the season, but after what went down last week in Orlando, the Bears seem to be well-acquainted with the miraculous.
Collapsing Cowboys?
The last time Oklahoma State wasn’t bowl eligible, George W. Bush was president, YouTube had just launched, the Big 12 was run by the likes of Vince Young and Adrian Peterson, and there were only two “Fast and Furious” movies.
So yeah, it’s been a while.
Amid all of the world’s changes during the past 17 years, there’s been one constant force: Mike Gundy’s Cowboys playing December football. Since Gundy’s hiring in 2005, Oklahoma State has held a 158-77 record, earned bowl eligibility every year since 2006, and has always been at least respectable within the Big 12, if not formidable.
2023 may just put an end to that run of Stillwater success.
The Cowboys are flat-out bad. Their Sept. 16 loss to South Alabama (who?) just keeps looking worse and worse — the Jaguars are 1-3 this year aside from that 26-point smackdown — and falling to Iowa State was pretty gross as well.
Oklahoma State is ranked No. 101 nationally in scoring offense. Within the Big 12, Pro Football Focus lists the Cowboys as the second-worst overall squad with the worst overall offensive grade and third-worst grade on defense. As of this writing, ESPN’s analytics model projects the Cowboys to win just one of their eight remaining contests. Whether you believe in statistics, fancy data points or just the ordinary eye test, all three yield the same answer to evaluate Oklahoma State: dreadful.
The next three weeks are especially tough for the Cowboys, who host high-quality opponents in Kansas State and Kansas before facing a really dangerous West Virginia team on the road. Three straight losses would suck all the life out of Stillwater — not that the offense has much of a pulse anyway — and bury Gundy and company in a bowl-less graveyard.
Mountaineer magic
Last week, I wrote that West Virginia may be the friskiest team in the Big 12.
I still think that’s true, but I’ve realized the Mountaineers are actually so much more: They’re the league’s most lovable squad.
Everyone loves a good underdog story, right? West Virginia is 4-1 after the oddsmakers and pundits projected Neal Brown’s crew to finish dead last. In a conference filled with high-octane, aerial-attacking offenses, the Mountaineers are completing 10 passes per game, pounding the rock, playing elite defense, and forcing opponents to play really ugly football.
And it’s working.
Last week against TCU, 14-point underdog West Virginia mustered just 342 total yards, but was still able to win the time of possession battle and force the Horned Frogs offense into timely discomfort by playing more anxiously. They may not have grabbed any turnovers, but the Mountaineers racked up five sacks and blocked two fourth-quarter field goals to seal their three-point victory.
Some teams may go multiple seasons without blocking a field goal. West Virginia did it twice in the same quarter.
Can you say “team of destiny?”
The Mountaineers are unlike any other team in the Big 12, and because of this, they’re capable of beating anyone in the league on any given night. They’re terrifying. They’re mysterious. Could they run the table? With their defense and ability to control the clock, it’s entirely possible.
West Virginia has a bye this weekend, but I hope Brown and his players have their eyes glued to the Red River Showdown and take lots of notes on what they see. We may end up needing them to rise up to slay those Longhorns or Sooners in December.
Embrace the chaos. This is definitely the conference for it.
Jackson Payne is the sports editor for BYU’s Daily Universe and a Deseret News contributor. Follow him on Twitter @jackson5payne.
