What’s in an endorsement? A guide to what they mean, as GOP factions fight for NC votes

Republican endorsements.

They are one of the few tools available to voters trying to tell apart a crowd of unfamiliar candidates running anti-Biden ads.

But who is behind them?

And why are candidates faking them?

In 2024, it’s become more difficult to determine what Republican endorsements mean about the candidates earning them.

But on March 5, the party’s voters in North Carolina will choose between 49 candidates running for Congress spread among 14 districts, whose winners will then almost all face off against one of the 15 Democrats running in 12 districts.

One of the exceptions is North Carolina’s 6th Congressional District.

There, no other political party chose to challenge the Republicans in the general election, meaning that whoever wins the party’s primary will more than likely become the next person to represent the Triad-based area.

A crowd of Republicans are seeking the job, some with backing from national figures and groups. Former President Donald Trump gave his endorsement to former lobbyist Addison McDowell, before anyone even knew McDowell was running. That slighted Bo Hines, a former N.C. State football star who Trump strongly supported in the 2022 election.

But Club for Growth, Trump’s on-again, off-again frenemy, gave its endorsement to Hines.

Meanwhile, First Freedoms Foundation, a political action committee out of Greensboro, is recycling 2022 endorsements from people like Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, NASCAR legend Richard Petty and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on behalf of Christian Castelli, a Green Beret. The way they appear on the PAC’s social media account make the endorsements appear new.

And Pompeo, House Speaker Mike Johnson and Sen. Markwayne Mullin were forced to clarify last month their involvement in the race after former Rep. Mark Walker said they were supporting his 6th District run (Spoiler: They aren’t).

Mullin told McClatchy he never endorsed Walker, despite Walker saying otherwise. Walker gave McClatchy text messages that appear to be from Pompeo and Johnson agreeing to endorse him; however, Johnson’s text came prior to his speakership or the finalization of the state’s congressional maps, and Pompeo directed Walker to get in touch with his staff to make the endorsement happen.

So what is the average voter supposed to take away from all of this?

“When you get into a primary, voters no longer have the most useful piece of information they can cue on and that is partisanship,” said Joel Sievert, associate professor of political science at Texas Tech University, who teaches about congressional elections. “You’re making a choice between people who share a common party label, so the goal of the endorsement is that if you have like-minded individuals who are either members of this organization or have pre-existing knowledge about what this organization stands for, the endorsement can be a useful way to kind of signal, among this array of options, this is the one that’s closest to our own preference.”

As for candidates, endorsements can mean boosts in polls, grassroots support and financial gain.

“Endorsements are important, but they’re most important when they’re tied to resources,” said Jordan Shaw, a campaign adviser working on several in North Carolina this cycle. “If you have support from a group that is spending serious resources on your behalf, that endorsement is obviously much more important than an endorsement that is only an endorsement.”

Shaw added that an endorsement isn’t going to do anything if a candidate doesn’t have the means to get the message out that they received it.

In a way, 2024 has reset what people thought they knew about the Republican Party. This is the first presidential election since Jan. 6, 2021, when rioters broke into the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to stop the certification of President Joe Biden’s election.

With Trump as the leader of the party and likely on his way to its nomination again, it’s becoming harder to tell what groups subscribe to which faction of the Republican Party. Groups that were once thought to be the most extreme subset of the party are now seen as moderate by comparison, and others change their allegiances so often, people aren’t sure who they support.

The Trump endorsement

McClatchy interviewed seven political advisors who agree that Trump is the No. 1 endorsement being sought among Republicans in 2024.

“And anyone who tells you differently is the person who didn’t get the Trump endorsement,” said Jonathan Felts, a campaign adviser working with McDowell.

McDowell’s endorsement from Trump wasn’t Felts’ first foray into Trump world.

During the 2022 election, Felts worked on Sen. Ted Budd’s campaign. The Senate freshman, who served three terms in the U.S. House of Representatives, ran against Walker and former Gov. Pat McCrory for the Republican nomination for his current seat.

Since 2019, Walker’s campaign had said after he backed out of challenging Sen. Thom Tillis for his Senate seat that Trump pledged to him that he would endorse him in 2022 campaigns. That included if he ran for the now-retired Sen. Richard Burr’s seat, which Budd now occupies.

McCrory was leading in the polls, but because of Walker’s commentary, many believed Trump would endorse Walker in the race. So it caught most Republicans off guard when Trump took the stage in North Carolina and endorsed Budd.

It instantly elevated Budd’s campaign.

“The great thing with his endorsement is it opens up a ton of access to grassroots volunteers and gives you credibility with donors,” Felts said.

He said instead of needing to put in three calls for help to get someone to engage in a campaign, it now only takes one.

“That’s a big help,” Felts said, adding that it’s especially helpful when running a candidate with little name recognition.

A Trump endorsement is not a guaranteed win

But Felts also said that Trump’s endorsement does not mean an automatic win.

“A lot of people think the Trump endorsement means you automatically jump up in points, you’re going to raise millions and millions of dollars and that’s just not the case,” Felts said. “The Trump endorsement is more powerful than any other endorsement, but we’ve got to get the message out.”

Others agreed that the Trump endorsement alone might not carry a candidate to victory.

Liz Mair, a Republican political consultant living in Connecticut, pointed to the 2022 campaign of former Rep. Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina.

Once a rising star in the Republican Party, Cawthorn sought reelection following his freshman term in Congress.

Trump supported Cawthorn’s campaign, but it wasn’t enough to save him from a series of scandals that broke as the May primary neared. Those included anything from bringing weapons to an airport and school to saying his colleagues participate in orgies to a nude video leak. And those were coupled with a lack of constituent services being offered in his district.

“I think Cawthorn was pretty dead in the water at that point,” Mair said. “I think if you’re dealing with bad candidate quality, even a Trump endorsement isn’t going to save you.”

Club for Growth

Patrick Sebastian, a North Carolina political adviser and pollster, watched Budd’s 2022 race closely and said if he, now, were to choose an endorsement for his candidate he would want Trump, but also with someone coming in behind the former president offering financial support.

In Budd’s case, Club for Growth, a nonprofit with a super PAC focused on tax breaks and economic policy, came in and pumped millions into his campaign.

“If Club for Growth had endorsed Budd, but not given any money, no one would have cared,” Sebastian said. “That was kind of a perfect storm, a one-two punch that couldn’t be overcome. Budd and the outside efforts really executed it perfectly.”

Club for Growth supports candidates who agree with the organization’s economic policy stances. On its website, it touts that Club for Growth is the only organization willing to take on any member of Congress, regardless of party.

Club for Growth did not respond to a request for comment on this article.

Mair said she remembers that back in 2006, moderate Republicans feared Club for Growth.

“If Club endorsed your challenger, you were basically, dead-man walking,” Mair said of 2006 campaigns. Now, she says it’s less clear what a Club for Growth endorsement can do for a candidate because the organization has been a chameleon over the years.

That’s evident in its relationship with Trump, who sometimes is backed by the organization and sometimes at odds.

Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University, said he characterizes the organization as people who play nice, but aren’t above a well-placed jab.

“You think about the Trump endorsement as the quintessential marker that you are in the MAGA wing of the Republican Party,” Cooper said. “You think about Club for Growth as a little bit closer to the establishment wing of the Republican Party, though it started fairly to the right. And you see Americans for Prosperity as maybe a little bit to the right of Club today.”

Americans for Prosperity

Several advisers said Americans for Prosperity stands out to them because of the grassroots support the organization offers to their candidates.

Founded in 2004 by Charles and David Koch, AFP is an influential conservative organization that helped propel the Tea Party movement that preceded MAGA.

Many political pundits question AFP’s staying-power because its endorsement of presidential candidate Nikki Haley failed to boost her to second place in the Iowa caucus.

“I don’t believe that,” Mair said. “I never thought Nikki Haley could possibly get above 14% ever, under any circumstances, so my interpretation of that is that AFP actually put her at 19%, and I actually think it does show that if AFP engages in the race seriously, that can be worth several points in a primary.”

Tyler Voigt, the state director for Americans for Prosperity North Carolina, said the organization champions a free and open society, a government that lets people realize their potential and a less burdensome tax system for businesses. He summarized the goals as getting the government out of the way so people can reach their American dreams.

“When we endorse someone we want to make sure they’re going to be a policy champion for us, because we see politics as kind of a means to an end,” Voigt said. “We’ve never really wavered on what our vision is or our principles are.”

So far in North Carolina’s 2024 congressional elections, AFP has only endorsed Pat Harrigan, in the 10th District race. Shaw advises his campaign.

Several campaigns noted that while Club for Growth might attack an opponent in the primary, AFP tends to focus on policy and how the candidate they support aligns with their principles.

“We’re in a dark place,” Voigt said of the political atmosphere. “Our thought process when we’re looking at endorsing somebody is do they bring a positive vision? Are they trying to advance our culture in a positive way?”

Voigt said Budd caught the attention of AFP early in his political career and has maintained a great relationship. He said Budd shows up at AFP events in North Carolina, even without a direct invitation. That has allowed the organization to get to know him and in turn has led to multiple endorsements.

“Once we get behind somebody, we’re going to be in it to win that race, so with Budd, that meant deploying our grassroots across the state, and at the end of the day, we knocked, I think it was right around 880,000 doors,” Voigt said. “It is the best tactic you can do in a campaign, is to knock on doors.”

Voigt said he remembers in 2014 doing the same for Tillis. They also do mailers and television ads.

North Carolina support

Several advisers said that getting an endorsement from Tillis in a 2024 Republican primary is political suicide.

Tillis, a Republican, served two terms as town commissioner in Cornelius before being elected to the state House in 2006, where he would go on, in 2011, to become speaker. He ran, in 2014, for the U.S. Senate and won against Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan.

Congress, this term, has become one of the least productive in the nation’s history. However, Tillis has worked on major legislation ranging from gun laws to immigration. To do so he’s reached across the aisle and worked with Democrats to find compromises to get legislation passed in a chamber where Democrats hold a very narrow majority.

And that has led the North Carolina Republican Party to censure Tillis.

“I think with any endorsement you’ve got to decide what is your most urgent need,” said Shaw, a Tillis adviser. “If you’re a well-funded campaign that needs to be hyper-focused on appealing to a certain segment of the Republican base on a particular issue, you’ve got to evaluate everybody’s endorsement and U.S. Sen. Tillis’ would be no different.”

Shaw added that every endorser brings something to the table: financial incentives, opportunities to raise money, grassroots appeal, access to small donors, earned news coverage.

“I think there are a ton of scenarios where a Thom Tillis endorsement would be helpful to someone running for office right now,” Shaw said.

Shaw also advises gubernatorial candidate Bill Graham, who took a Tillis endorsement as a means to set himself apart from his Republican firebrand opponent, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.

“I don’t know of anybody else in our party who has won two statewide races against liberal Democrats, who has faced down more spending from the far-left, who has accomplished more for this party and who has set us up for what is going on two decades now of legislative majorities, which Thom Tillis helped build,” Shaw said. “So I think the needless criticism from the consultant class in North Carolina of a guy who really built our party that we’re all enjoying the fruits of right now are ridiculous and they need, to me, to stop.”

Felts, who is an adviser to Robinson’s Patriots First Super PAC, said he thinks Robinson is the second most important endorsement a North Carolina candidate can receive in 2024.

“Mark Robinson gives you a lot of credibility instantly with grassroots conservatives,” Felts said. “The folks that are looking for fire. And that’s what both parties are looking for right now. People are motivated by him and that makes a big difference.”

Cooper said he finds it hard to believe that Robinson would ever endorse someone that Trump didn’t.

Other groups

The campaign advisors noted that there are many other groups that help their Republican candidates in an election.

Groups fighting for gun rights help with Second Amendment supporters.

Organizations opposed to abortion still have an impact on voters.

And women’s groups, like Winning for Women, also offer grassroots support.

Many also pointed out that while all of these endorsements can be helpful in the primary, they might impact a candidate differently when going up against a Democratic opponent in the general election.

On Nov. 5, the candidate needs to convince all voters, regardless of party, why they are the candidate who deserves to go to Washington. And some of these endorsements, like Trump, might not appeal to the left or center.

“This is a primary conversation,” Cooper said. “What works in the primary may work against you in the general.”