As he enters third debate, Ron DeSantis has a big Nikki Haley problem

Ron DeSantis has a Nikki Haley problem, and it could get worse if Florida’s governor can’t muster a strong performance Wednesday in Miami during the third GOP presidential primary debate.

Haley has surged in key early voting states, surpassing DeSantis or pulling even with him in polls and shattering the narrative DeSantis has promoted that it’s a two-person race between him and former President Donald Trump.

DeSantis still leads Haley in most national polls, but has been trending down and the average of recent surveys in New Hampshire and South Carolina show Haley ahead of DeSantis in both states.

Most worrisome for DeSantis is a highly-regarded recent Iowa poll showing him tied with Haley in that state, where DeSantis has devoted the bulk of his campaign and is banking on a strong showing.

A Super PAC backing DeSantis has begun attacking Haley in Iowa in an attempt to slow her momentum, and political observers say he needs to do the same on the debate stage.

“He may be at a point now where he has to engage a little bit more,” University of Iowa political science professor Tim Hagle said of DeSantis.

Former Florida Gulf Coast University political science professor Peter Bergerson said DeSantis needs "a break through" on the debate stage as Haley continues to gain on him.

"He’s going to have to focus on her and her issues, and I think he’s going to have to sharpen and be more specific and direct on his answers," Bergerson said.

The problem for DeSantis is that Haley has proven to be a strong debater, attracting attention for a withering takedown of Vivek Ramaswamy on the debate stage and other combative moments.

Haley’s performances in the first two debates were generally well received and likely boosted her in the polls.

DeSantis also received good grades for his debate performances from many Republicans, but didn’t get the same polling bounce.

Now he faces the difficult task of slowing Haley’s momentum, which appears to be based on a variety of factors beyond her debate performances.

Haley may be benefiting from an increased interest in foreign policy issues, where she has strong credentials, amid conflicts in Ukraine and Israel and a desire among some Republicans for more hawkish positions, noted Hagle, adding that she also has proven to be a capable campaigner in Iowa.

The Trump campaign’s focus on DeSantis also helps Haley. Make America Great Again Inc., a super PAC supporting Trump, recently began running attack ads again against DeSantis in Iowa.

“Haley’s kind of moving up because a lot of things are working in her direction,” Hagle said.

As DeSantis' campaign struggles, voters also may be looking around to see if other candidates have a better chance of beating Trump, Bergerson said.

"This is somewhat reflective as well that his campaign hasn’t caught on like he would hope," he said.

And DeSantis’ hard right campaign aimed at appealing to Trump’s MAGA base may be alienating more establishment and moderate GOP voters who are ready to move on from Trump. Haley appears to be attracting anti-Trump voters.

A Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll released Oct. 30 found that among voters who back Haley, only 12% say Trump is their second choice. Among DeSantis supporters, 41% say Trump is their second choice.

The poll has DeSantis and Haley tied at 16% support in Iowa.

A poor showing in Iowa would doom DeSantis’ campaign.

“If Haley clearly becomes the second-place person and supersedes DeSantis, yeah he’s got to worry about that,” Hagle said.

Never Back Down, a super PAC backing DeSantis, has released several television ads and online videos attacking Haley. DeSantis, his campaign and the super PAC have criticized Haley’s record on China and targeted her over comments about refugees.

A CNN fact check found that DeSantis and his allies were “inaccurately depicting” Haley’s comments about people from Gaza, a Palestinian territory where Israel currently is conducting a military campaign. A Never Back Down video accuses Haley of wanting to bring in more refugees, which she denies.

Haley's campaign has fired back with a video accusing DeSantis of being "desperate."

“Why is Desperate DeSantis attacking Nikki Haley? He’s losing to Nikki. And it’s easy to see why,” the video states. “Nikki’s out-classed him at every turn. Sorry Ron. Fake Attacks. Five campaign 'reboots.' Phony smiles. Your desperation is showing.”

This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Ron DeSantis faces Nikki Haley in Miami in third GOP primary debate