Erdogan Archfoes Will Play Kingmaker Long After Election Is Over

Selcan Hacaoglu and Firat Kozok
·3 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- Vilified as terrorists by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurdish politicians have already emerged as kingmakers in an opposition bid to unseat the Turkish president and could become a legislative force after a cliffhanger election that risks creating a hung parliament.

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The leadership of a pro-Kurdish alliance has extended crucial support to the joint opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, in an effort to end Erdogan’s 20-year rule. The Turkish leader has masterminded a crackdown on the main pro-Kurdish group — the Peoples’ Democratic Party, or HDP — since it briefly denied his allies a majority in parliament in 2015.

With Erdogan’s presidency in the balance, his dominance of the legislature is also at risk, as polls suggest the president’s alliance with nationalist and Islamic parties could struggle to maintain control.

What beckons for Kurdish politicians following May elections is the unfamiliar role of powerbrokers after years of being sidelined in the 600-member legislature. To circumvent a potential ban, the HDP is fielding parliamentary candidates on the ticket of another pro-Kurdish group, the Green Left, which is on track to win enough seats to retain its sister party’s rank as the assembly’s third-biggest — only with far more clout.

“The opposition can only secure a majority with the pro-Kurdish Green Left and its left-wing alliance, which is likely to emerge as the legislative kingmaker from the elections,” said Emre Peker, Europe director for Eurasia Group. “Kurdish voters will also be key to Kilicdaroglu’s presidential bid.”

For Turkey’s $900 billion economy, the political jigsaw that takes shape in parliament will be critical to navigating what’s likely a period of harrowing volatility for the local currency and markets. Making critical legislative decisions such as amending the constitution, approving the budget or paving the way for a trial of lawmakers or ministers in court will all hinge on backing from the pro-Kurdish bloc.

Their priority is putting an end to a decades-old war by autonomy-seeking Kurdish militants and winning broader rights for a minority that makes up nearly a fifth of the population of 85 million.

Kilicdaroglu, who was born in a largely Kurdish province and belongs to the Alevi religious minority, has been receptive. In a video viewed more than 5 million times on Twitter, he lambasted the government for stigmatizing the Kurds and treating them as terrorists.

The stakes for Kurds couldn’t be higher as Turkey’s top court ponders whether to disband the left-wing HDP on charges of ties to separatist Kurdish militants, which it denies.

For Erdogan, the threat is that Kurdish voters will reprise a role they played during municipal elections four years ago, when they supported the opposition and helped swing the vote against pro-government candidates in two of Turkey’s biggest cities.

Read more: All About the YPG, the Syrian Kurds Vexing Turkey

Selahattin Demirtas, a former co-leader of the HDP who’s been imprisoned since 2016, has meanwhile been vowing to work toward ending the conflict between Turkey and Kurdish separatists that has cost the country more than $400 billion since 1984, according to government estimates, and stained its human rights record.

“We will solve our problems within the parliament and we will definitely clinch the great social peace,” Demirtas said on Twitter through his lawyers.

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