Anti-Erdogan Alliance Nears Collapse Over Leadership Spat

Firat Kozok and Selcan Hacaoglu
·4 min read
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(Bloomberg) --

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Turkey’s opposition is in crisis over a failure to agree on a joint candidate to contest President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, hampering a rare chance to unseat the country’s longest-serving leader at elections in less than three months.

The infighting burst into the open on Friday when the opposition bloc’s second largest party Iyi slammed the rest of the group for submitting to personal ambitions of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, head of CHP party, who wants to run as the bloc’s candidate.

“The alliance of six simply turned into a notary that approves one candidate,” Iyi Party head Meral Aksener said in televised comments. The alliance “ceased to be a platform of common sense where potential candidates can be debated.”

Leaders of the six—party opposition met on Thursday to break the impasse after months of internal conflict that prevented them from agreeing on a name. Aksener said she proposed Istanbul and Ankara mayors, but was rebuffed by the rest of the bloc, who insisted on Kilicdaroglu. It was the 12th time the leaders had came together, but their failure to reach an agreement has exposed them to frequent attacks from Erdogan.

While Aksener refrained from pulling out of the alliance, her public criticism of the and suggestions of alternative candidates make it increasingly likely that the anti-Erdogan camp will unravel.

The deepening crisis among opposition parties with less than three months left before the elections spurred a sharp drop in Turkish markets, with the benchmark stop index falling as much as 3.9% as Aksener spoke. The Borsa Istanbul 100 index was trading 2% lower as of 4:01 p.m. in Istanbul.

The Turkish president accused opposition parties of being disorganized, telling the electorate that they remain too divided on important issues to run the country.

A day before the opposition’s last summit, Erdogan called for presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14, quashing speculation the vote would be postponed following two deadly earthquakes.

May Elections

It will remain the toughest electoral race of Erdogan’s two decades in power. He’s stepped up a multi-billion-dollar reconstruction effort after last month’s disaster that leveled cities and killed more than 45,000 people, after the government faced sharp criticism for the initial quake response.

The opposition has failed to effectively communicate its policy on vital topics from the economy to international relations, said Bekir Agirdir, head of the Konda polling agency. It should have the upper hand due to the government’s perceived bungled crisis response, but it’s missed the mark.

“Its continued infighting over the candidate coupled with its failure to convey its main vision on critical matters are hampering its chances,” said Agirdir, whose agency successfully predicted the margin of victory for local elections in 2019, when the opposition’s Ekrem Imamoglu took Istanbul.

Surveys consistently show a decline in support for the opposition bloc, though the numbers remain too close to predict a winner. Early last year, more voters predicted the opposition would win. But sentiment has gradually changed in Erdogan’s favor in the last few months.

The Turkish president, who has assumed greater powers since 2018, remains Turkey’s most popular politician even as his Justice and Development Party lost some support among poor Turks who had been among its most stalwart backers.

Turks are also dealing with the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades, which only looks set to get worse as the impact of the earthquakes filters through the economy.

To defeat Erdogan in the presidential race, opposition parties must rally behind a candidate that can lure support of the pro-Kurdish HDP which has emerged as kingmaker in past elections, though is now facing a potential ban because of alleged ties to separatist Kurdish militants.

Why Turkey’s Next Election Is a Real Test for Erdogan: QuickTake

Voters appear split when it comes to the opposition. Less than half of the electorate is expected to vote in favor of Erdogan’s AK Party and nationalist allies, according to recent polling.

But those voting for the opposition are split mainly between the six parties and the pro-Kurdish HDP. That may allow Erdogan and his allies to divide and conquer at the polls.

(Updates with comments from opposition party on deepening crisis)

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