Erie County sees surge in COVID-19 cases as new omicron subvariant takes root

The latest COVID-19 surge that started in upstate New York has reached Erie County, based on a recent increase in new cases.

Erie County's weekly number of new cases rose by 68% last week, from 242 cases reported April 25-May 1 to 406 cases reported May 2-8, according to the Erie County Department of Health. It reported 87 new cases Tuesday, the county's highest single-day total in nearly three months.

"I'm not surprised. We know the newer omicron subvariant (BA.2.12.1) is more transmissible than BA.2, which was more transmissible than original omicron," said Charlotte Berringer, R.N., director of community health services for the county health department. "And we still have a lot of people who are unprotected against the virus."

COVID-19 cases in the region of the country that includes Pennsylvania are split almost evenly between BA.2.12.1 and BA.2, according to the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention.

Fortunately, it also appears this newest omicron subvariant is at least as mild as the other omicron variants. The number of COVID-19 patients at UPMC Hamot and Saint Vincent Hospital increased last week but few of them required intensive care or ventilators.

Many of them continue to be admitted for non-COVID reasons and test positive during their hospital stay, said Christopher Clark, D.O., Saint Vincent president.

"Our number of COVID patients more than doubled last week, from eight to 18," Clark said. "But only one of them is on a ventilator and I'd say the acuity of illness for most of them is low to moderate."

Hamot reported a smaller increase in COVID admissions last week, from eight to 10. A majority of those patients were on what hospital officials call "room air," meaning they don't require any supplemental oxygen or a ventilator.

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"We don't have any COVID patients in Hamot's ICU right now, which is encouraging," said Emily Shears, vice president for quality for UPMC in northwestern Pennsylvania and New York. "When we do have COVID patients who are critically ill, they are either older or have comorbidities (such as diabetes, obesity, lung problems)."

Despite the increase in patients with COVID-19 at Hamot and Saint Vincent, the average daily number of county residents hospitalized with the virus declined last week, from 25.6 between April 27-May 3 to 21.4 between May 4-10, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Health.

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Berringer cautioned that, while this current COVID-19 subvariant might cause milder illness, hospitalization numbers could still increase dramatically. The original omicron variant caused hospitalizations in the county to soar simply because the virus infected so many people.

She pointed to previous surges during the pandemic, when increases in hospitalizations trailed spikes in new cases by two to three weeks.

Clark said he believes hospitalizations will likely increase but not like they did during previous case surges. He noted that Saint Vincent's daily census of COVID patients dropped from 11 on Monday to five on Tuesday.

"It's the strain. We are seeing shorter lengths of stay with this subvariant," Clark said. "We also have a lot of people who are protected by being fully vaccinated, though we would like to see that number increase. Natural immunity from previous infections also helps."

Samples taken earlier this week from the Erie Wastewater Treatment Plant showed just a slight increase in the amount of COVID-19 virus from the previous week, from the equivalent of about 550 cases a week to 560, according to the county health department. It remains higher than at any time since late January.

A look at Erie County's COVID-19 statistics

Here is a breakdown of Erie County residents by vaccination status as of Tuesday, according to the Erie County Department of Health:

• Not eligible for vaccine: 5.55% (mostly children ages 0-4)

• Not vaccinated: 27%

• Partially vaccinated: 8.8%

• Fully vaccinated, no booster: 29.2%

• Fully vaccinated with one booster: 26%

• Fully vaccinated with two boosters: 3.5%

Both Hamot and Saint Vincent have ended their COVID-19 vaccination clinics due to a lack of demand, but continue to offer the vaccine at their physician offices and urgent-care centers.

Vaccine is available at the LECOM Center for Health & Aging, 3910 Schaper Ave., on Tuesdays from 9 a.m. to 7 p.m. and Fridays from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Walk-ins are welcome. For more information, call 814-812-9851.

For other vaccination clinics, visit eriecountypa.gov/covid-19/covid-19-vaccine.

More: Some Erie County schools will mask, others won't if COVID-19 community level rises

Here is a look at the rest of the county's COVID-19 measurements between April 27-May 3 and May 4-10, according to the state health department:

• The number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases increased from 222 to 367.

• The rate of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents rose from 82.3 to 136.1.

• The COVID-19 test positivity rate increased from 10.9% to 16.2%.

• The average daily number of COVID-19 patients requiring ventilators declined from 1.1 to 0.9.

• The percentage of emergency department visits due to COVID-19 symptoms rose from 1.1% to 1.7%.

Flu season winding down in Erie County?

One of the latest flu seasons in Erie County history appears to be winding down.

The county health department reported 57 flu cases from May 1-7, a decline from 79 cases reported April 24-30 and 107 cases reported April 17-23. Flu season typically runs from December to March, but the season can vary.

So far, 1,807 flu cases have been reported in the county since Oct. 1, fewer than each of the last four seasons before the COVID-19 pandemic. Only 14 flu cases were reported during the 2020-21 season, as people stayed home and wore face masks to prevent getting COVID-19.

"We have seen 70 hospitalizations and no deaths due to flu this season," Berringer said. "It has not been a severe season, thank goodness, just a late one."

A possible reason for the lack of flu-related deaths and hospitalizations is that only 7% of the county's cases are people 65 and older, who are more vulnerable to serious flu complications like pneumonia.

Contact David Bruce at dbruce@timesnews.com. Follow him on Twitter @ETNBruce.

This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: COVID-19 cases surge in Erie County as new omicron subvariant spreads