Erie County's flu cases decline again. Will we see a second wave?

Erie County 2022-23 flu season started early and peaked at a record-high level of cases. Now it might be ending, although local health officials aren't ruling out a second wave.

Twenty-one flu cases were reported in the county Jan. 15-21, the seventh straight week the weekly total has declined, according to the Erie County Department of Health. There have been 4,523 cases detected this season, the most since flu became a reportable illness in 2003.

More: Erie County sets seasonal record for flu cases for second time in four years

While it appears this flu season is nearing a mid-winter end, don't declare it over just yet, said Emily Shears, UPMC Hamot's vice president of operations.

"We've seen a big wave of influenza A but we still expect to see some influenza B," Shears said, referring to the type of flu that often circulates near the end of flu season.

Only 22 type B cases have been reported in the county so far this season.

Dr. Christopher Clark, Saint Vincent Hospital president, agreed with Shears that it's still too early to say the 2022-23 flu season is near its end.

"I'd go as far as saying I expect another (wave)," Clark said. "We have seen a second wave more often than not."

Though the county has reported a record number of flu cases, it hasn't resulted in a high number of people being hospitalized due to flu complications.

No county residents were hospitalized with flu last week, and only 147 hospitalizations have been reported this season, according to the County Health Department. That is 3% of all reported cases, well below the usual 5% to 10%, based on county data.

"It could be that we don't actually have more flu circulating than usual, but more flu cases are being reported because we are testing more people who present with respiratory illnesses to see if they have flu, COVID or RSV," Clark said.

A second death from flu complications was reported this week by the County Health Department. The person was older than 80 and the death occurred the week of Dec. 18-24.

COVID-19 cases rise slightly in Erie County but hospitalizations decline

While flu cases decline in the county, the number of COVID-19 cases rose slightly last week, though it remains at a lower level than at any time since March.

The county's weekly number of reported cases increased from 111 between Jan. 11-17 to 129 between Jan. 18-24, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Health.

More: Jay Breneman's battle with long COVID: 'Life is just on a major pause right now'

COVID-19 hospitalizations in the county declined slightly last week, from an average of 22.7 per day to 22.4, the State Health Department reported. Most of those patients are in the hospital for other reasons and test positive during their admission, Clark and Shears said.

"We currently have 10 COVID admissions and none of them are in the intensive care unit," Shears said on Tuesday. "We really have seen a flat number of cases on a month-to-month basis, usually between seven to 14 admissions, and they are almost all mild cases who are in the hospital for other reasons."

COVID-19 is still making a few people severely ill, however. Ten COVID-19 deaths have been reported in the county since Jan. 1, according to the State Health Department.

These are typically people older than 80 with other health issues, such as heart or lung disease, according to Clark and County Health Department data.

"We are still seeing these outlier cases and they are similar to what we have been seeing in recent months," Clark said. "They get to develop viral pneumonia or bacterial pneumonia. But most patients we see with COVID have much less serious illness."

More: COVID-19 in 2022: How omicron changed the pandemic in Erie County

Here is a vaccination status breakdown of the county's 30 COVID-19 deaths reported since Nov. 15, according to the County Health Department:

• nine were unvaccinated or partially vaccinated;

• 13 were fully vaccinated but not up to date with their primary series or booster doses;

• one was fully vaccinated and up to date with their primary series; and

• seven were fully vaccinated and up to date with their booster doses

Clark and other local health officials have said people older than 75 sometimes have more difficulty gaining protection from vaccinations or previous infections.

"Still, vaccinations and mitigation measures, like wearing a face mask when you are among groups of people, are the best protections against COVID-19," Clark said.

Contact David Bruce at dbruce@timesnews.com. Follow him on Twitter @ETNBruce.

This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: Erie County's flu cases fall again; COVID-19 cases rise slightly