What effects did Erie County's record-breaking flu season have on hospitalizations, deaths?

David Bruce, Erie Times-News
·3 min read
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More Erie County residents have tested positive for flu this season than any other since flu became a reportable disease in 2003.

However, as the 2023-23 flu season nears its end, its record-breaking number of flu cases has not caused a surge in flu hospitalizations or flu-related deaths. Of the 4,610 cases reported through Feb. 25, 151 county residents were hospitalized due to flu and four people have died, according to Erie County Department of Health data.

Those numbers translate into a hospitalization rate of 3.3% and a death rate of 0.087%, well below the county's typical rates of 4%-11% for hospitalizations and 0.1%-0.3% for deaths.

Here are the five highest seasonal flu totals for Erie County since flu became a reportable disease in 2003, according to the County Health Department:

  • 2022-23 (through Feb. 25) — 4,610

  • 2019-20 — 4,449

  • 2017-18 — 3,859

  • 2018-19 — 2,403

  • 2016-17 — 2,110

Triple test, fewer older flu victims might have reduced hospitalizations, deaths

Local health officials offered several theories about why this flu season included so many cases, yet lower rates of hospital stays and deaths.

"We still might see a late surge, but it seems that the high number of younger individuals with flu is a reason for not seeing that many hospitalizations," said Dr. Tim Pelkowski, a physician with Saint Vincent Family Medicine, referring to county data that shows 58% of this season's flu cases are people 18 and younger.

Though flu can cause serious complications in babies, toddlers and preschoolers, younger people usually struggle less with flu than those 65 and older, Pelkowski said.

Another reason is the increased use among health-care providers of a single test for RSV, flu and COVID-19, said Jaime Babiak, director of operations for the LECOM Institute for Successful Aging.

"We are testing people more frequently, using that (triple test) to check for all three viral illnesses," Babiak said. "It's likely part of the reason our flu numbers have increased. We are finding cases that might have gone unnoticed previously."

Another reason flu caused relatively few serious illnesses this season is that the flu vaccine was a good match, according to early reports from the Centers for Disease Cobtrol & Prevention.

The vaccines were more than 40% effective in preventing adults from getting sick enough from the flu that they had to go to a doctor’s office, clinic or hospital, health officials said during a CDC vaccines meeting Feb. 22, the Associated Press reported.

Officials generally are pleased if a flu vaccine is 40% to 60% effective.

"LECOM provided about 1,000 more flu vaccines this season than we did the previous year," Babiak said. "It could be a reason why relatively few older people got the flu."

Only 11% of the county's flu cases were people 65 and older, and 8% were 50 to 64 years of age.

Only eight months separated last two flu seasons

The other unique aspect of the 2022-23 flu season was how close it was to the previous season. The 2021-22 flu season peaked in March and April 2022, just eight months before the peak of the 2022-23 season in November and December.

It's the closest two different flu seasons occured in the county since 2009, when the 2008-09 season peaked in February and March, and the H1N1 pandemic peaked the following October.

"Part of that might also be due to the increased testing we have seen since the COVID pandemic, but we know peak flu season does vary," Pelkowski said. "It usually peaks in the winter but last year it was in the spring and we even saw cases into June."

Pelkowski and Babiak each cautioned that the 2022-23 season might not be finished, though only 10 cases have been reported over the past two weeks.

The typical second wave of type B flu cases has not occurred, though some seasons don't have many type B cases.

"It's still not too late to get a flu shot," Babiak said.

Contact David Bruce at dbruce@timesnews.com. Follow him on Twitter @ETNBruce.

This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: Erie's record flu season didn't cause hospitalizations and deaths to surge