Erie County's weekly number of COVID-19 cases edges higher. Is BA.2 to blame?

Erie County's weekly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases rose last week for the first time in almost three months, a possible sign that the more transmissible BA.2 omicron subvariant could be the area's primary COVID strain.

It was a slight increase, from 56 cases the week of March 18-24 to 57 cases March 25-31. But cases had declined every week since mid-January, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Health.

"I wouldn't be surprised to see cases go up a bit as BA.2 arrives," said Charlotte Berringer, R.N., director of community health services for the Erie County Department of Health. "The name of the game with COVID is to be flexible based on what is happening at any given time. We also need to pay attention to the number of hospitalizations and the percentage of people fully vaccinated and boosted."

Few of the county's cases are tested to determine the variant. The percentage of BA.2 in this region of the country — which includes Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia — rose last week from 33.2% of all confirmed cases tested to 48.3%, according to the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention.

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BA.2 is believed to be 30% to 50% more transmissible than the original omicron, which is more transmissible than previous COVID-19 variants.

Still, the CDC predicts COVID-19 hospitalizations in Pennsylvania will continue to decrease in April. Reasons for the expected decline are that omicron doesn't cause as severe illness in most people, nearly 60% of county residents are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, and people previously infected with omicron have at least some immunity against BA.2.

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In fact, last week's slight increase in COVID-19 cases might not be due to BA.2's emergence, but instead be attributed to a temporary plateau during an overall decline. Samples taken from the Erie Wastewater Treatment Plant last week showed the lowest amount of coronavirus since samples were taken last summer before the delta/omicron surge.

COVID-19 hospitalizations also continue to decline in the county, with a moving 14-day daily average of 23.8 patients. It's the lowest number since Aug. 22.

Twenty-one county residents with COVID-19 were hospitalized Thursday evening, including five in intensive care units and none who needed ventilators, the state Health Department reported.

"Our average daily number of COVID patients for March is eight," said Christopher Clark, D.O., Saint Vincent Hospital president. "In addition, our COVID test positivity rate continues to decline. It was 4% last week after being 6% the week before."

COVID-19 deaths in the county also continue to decline. Only six deaths have occurred in March, though deaths are sometimes not reported for up to two months after they occur.

In comparison, 28 deaths occurred in February, 62 in January and 75 in December, the county Health Department reported.

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Here is a look at the rest of the county's COVID-19 measurements between March 18-24 and March 25-31 from the state Health Department:

• The rate of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents rose from 20.8 to 21.1.

• The COVID-19 test positivity rate increased from 2.5% to 3%.

• The average daily number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 declined from 26.3 to 21.3.

• The average daily number of COVID-19 patients requiring ventilators decreased from 0.9 to 0.6.

• The percentage of emergency department visits due to COVID-19 symptoms rose from 1.4% to 2.3%.

Contact David Bruce at dbruce@timesnews.com. Follow him on Twitter @ETNBruce.

This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: Erie County sees COVID-19 cases rise slightly. Is BA.2 to blame?