Erie hospital leaders: Latest COVID-19 surge might not spark more admissions

Erie hospital officials are optimistic that COVID-19 hospitalizations, especially those requiring intensive care unit admissions, will not rise significantly this summer as yet another new omicron subvariant sparks a rise in new cases.

The BA.5 subvariant accounted for 41.1% of the COVID virus found in samples taken June 29 from the Erie Wastewater Treatment Plant and is now the most common COVID-19 subvariant found in the United States.

It is a highly transmissible and immune system-evading version of COVID-19, but early indications are that BA.5 won't cause a higher percentage of severe illness and death than other recent subvariants.

"BA.5 seems to be like previous omicron strains. It's highly infectious but less virulent," said Christopher Clark, D.O., Saint Vincent Hospital president. "Hopefully that remains the case."

Erie County's number of COVID-19 hospitalizations has remained surprisingly steady in recent months, even as case totals have risen and fallen. The 14-day moving average of daily COVID hospitalizations has remained between 17 and 33 patients since March 21, while the seven-day moving average of daily cases has fluctuated during that time between 9.4 and 109.9.

Many recent COVID-19 patients are admitted to the hospital for other reasons and subsequently test positive for the virus, said Emily Shears, vice president of quality for UPMC in northwestern Pennsylvania and New York.

"Even the COVID patients who come in because of respiratory reasons, every one of them right now (at UPMC Hamot) is either breathing room air or on very low levels of oxygen," Shears said Tuesday. "None of them are on ventilators."

Steady hospitalizations

Clark and Shears both said there are several reasons why COVID-19 hospitalizations haven't risen in recent months along with new case totals.

The omicron subvariants cause more upper respiratory issues, such as coughing and congestion, instead of serious lung problems like the earlier variants sometimes caused. There are also more people who have at least some immunity, either through prior infection, vaccination — almost 60% of county residents are fully vaccinated — or both.

"The most common trait we see in those who are very ill with COVID is advanced age, like when COVID first started," Clark said. "We also see them with chronic medical conditions."

The average age of a current Hamot patient with COVID is 66, nearly a decade older than it was during the delta surge in late 2021, Shears said.

Even if BA.5 is no more virulent than its predecessors, hospitalizations could rise if enough people get infected, said Charlotte Berringer, R.N., director of community health services for the Erie County Department of Health.

"If we see, say, a 300% increase in cases due to BA.5 and the hospitalization rate remains at 5%, it still means more hospital admissions," Berringer said. "It appears the sickest people are those who are not vaccinated and have no previous COVID infection. That's why it's still so important to get up-to-date on your vaccines."

Vaccinations surge in Erie County

Erie County did see an increase in COVID-19 vaccinations last week, especially among people getting their first and second booster shots.

The county health department reported 1,198 vaccinations the week of July 11-17, nearly the same number as were given the previous two weeks combined and the highest total since the week of June 6-12. Of those 1,198 shots administered, 56% were second boosters and 17% were first boosters, Berringer said.

"It may indicate an awareness of BA.5, which has been in the news so much recently," Berringer said. "The vaccine does a good job at preventing hospitalizations and death."

Contact David Bruce at dbruce@timesnews.com. Follow him on Twitter @ETNBruce.

This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: Erie hospital leaders say BA.5 might not spark COVID-19 hospital surge