Erie hospitals see mini-surge in COVID-19 patients, likely due to XBB.1.5 variant

Fueled by yet another new omicron subvariant, COVID-19 hospitalizations tripled among Erie County residents over a three-week period from mid-February to early March.

A majority of these patients were admitted due to COVID symptoms, unlike most of those in recent months who were hospitalized for other reasons and later tested positive for the virus.

"We are seeing mostly older people and they either tested positive at home or tested positive in the ER, and have COVID symptoms," said Emily Shears, UPMC Hamot's vice president of operations. "We are seeing few incidental COVID cases."

Despite the increase, Erie hospitals are still treating far fewer COVID-19 patients than they did during the surges in late 2020 and 2021. But it is a marked increase over the handful of patients they saw each day over the past 10 months.

It's also proof that the county continues to deal with an active COVID-19 pandemic, nearly three years since its first case. It occurred on March 18, 2020, just two days after then-Erie County Executive Kathy Dahlkemper ordered the county's "non-essential" businesses to close.

The county's seven-day moving average of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations rose from 10 on Feb. 12 to 30.3 on March 5, according to Erie County Department of Health data. Its number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care units increased during that time from an average of three a day to eight.

"This comes as subvariant XBB.1.5 has become dominant," said Dr. Howard Nadworny, a Saint Vincent Hospital infectious diseases specialist and County Health Department adviser. "We know this subvariant is more immune evasive, especially for those who are not up to date on their vaccinations and have not had previous COVID infections."

More: COVID-19 cases remain steady in Erie County, though hospitalizations rise

XBB.1.5 was estimated to be the subvariant for 96.1% of COVID-19 cases last week in a region of the United States that includes Pennsylvania, the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention reported on its website.

Fortunately, XBB.1.5 does not appear to cause more severe disease in people than other omicron subvariants, Nadworny said. The likely increase in ICU admissions for COVID-19 is that many of the patients are 70 and older.

"It's like when older people get flu. They already might be dealing with a previous heart attack, stroke or congestive heart failure, and the flu tips their system out of balance," Nadworny said. "I think the same thing is happening now with COVID. It's not like before when otherwise healthy people were getting critically ill."

More: COVID-19 in 2022: How omicron changed the pandemic in Erie County

Only 5 COVID-19 deaths reported in February, none so far in March

The recent rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations has not increased the county's number of COVID-19 deaths, at least not yet.

Only five deaths have been reported among county residents for February, the fewest since April and second-fewest since July 2021 — though there is sometimes a reporting lag in COVID-19 deaths. No deaths have yet been reported in March among county residents.

"This speaks to omicron and the fact that the risk of getting seriously ill and dying is still not that great," Nadworny said. "The key is convincing older people, those 60 or 70 and older, to get the bivalent booster. It has been proven to be effective against these newer versions, especially at preventing hospitalizations and death."

Hamot has already seen its number of COVID-19 hospitalizations decline in recent days, a sign that perhaps the XBB.1.5-fueled increase might be short-lived.

More: Jay Breneman's battle with long COVID: 'Life is just on a major pause right now'

"We peaked at 22 COVID admissions on Feb. 24 and were down to just seven on Thursday," Shears said. "Most of these recent patients were vaccinated, though we don't know their booster status. The good news is that their symptoms were quickly resolved and they have been discharged to home."

Erie's COVID-19 cases drop slightly, but wastewater samples show plenty of virus

COVID-19 cases declined slightly last week after remaining steady for the previous two weeks. A total of 152 cases were reported in the county from March 1-7, a drop from 161 reported the previous week and 162 two weeks ago, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Health.

Nadworny cautioned that many more cases are likely going unreported, since most people develop only mild symptoms and use at-home tests, if they test at all.

"Erie wastewater samples show moderately high levels of COVID, which tells me there are many more cases out there than are being reported," Nadowrny said.

Contact David Bruce at dbruce@timesnews.com. Follow him on Twitter @ETNBruce.

This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: COVID-19 hospitalizations surge in Erie County due to XBB.1.5