ESPN’s analytic model gives Miami Heat almost no chance to beat the Boston Celtics

Jason Dill
·2 min read
6

Vegas doesn’t fancy them.

ESPN’s analytics department barely offer a chance.

FiveThirtyEight’s model rates the odds as a long shot as well.

The computer models, experts and prognosticators are all agreeing: the Miami Heat has no chance to beat the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals, let alone winning the franchise’s fourth NBA title.

ESPN tweeted a graphic from its analytics team that gives the Heat a 3 percent chance to advance to the NBA Finals. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight is a bit more favorable at 22 percent, though its computer model lists the Heat with a 9 percent shot at winning the NBA championship.

And Vegas oddsmakers give the Heat the longest odds to win it all. According to Vegas Insider, the Heat’s odds range from +1200 to +1600 with various books, which equates to 5.88 to 7.69 percent odds.

In the conference semifinals, ESPN’s experts correctly picked one series on a majority basis. Of the 17 experts picking three of the four conference semifinal series, a total of 10 chose the Knicks to beat the Heat.

ESPN’s experts also picked the Suns to defeat the Nuggets, Warriors to beat the Lakers and Celtics to eliminate the 76ers — the latter being the only correct prediction.

And when it comes to ESPN’s analytic model showing a 3 percent chance for the Heat against the Celtics, the same model said Kentucky quarterback Will Levis had a 0.1 percent chance of not being selected in the 2023 NFL Draft’s first round.

The Tennessee Titans picked him in the second round, and ESPN’s first-round draft coverage had plenty of green room footage showing Levis with family and friends.

The Heat knocked off title favorite and No. 1 seed in the East, the Milwaukee Bucks, to open the playoffs.

The Heat split the season series with the Celtics, 2-2, and begin the best-of-7 series in Boston on Wednesday.

Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) speaks with game official Kevin Scott in the first quarter during the game against the New York Knicks in Game 6 of the NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals at the Kaseya Center in Miami on Friday, May 12, 2023.
Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) speaks with game official Kevin Scott in the first quarter during the game against the New York Knicks in Game 6 of the NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals at the Kaseya Center in Miami on Friday, May 12, 2023.