ESPN FPI: Oregon sees win probability drop across the board after narrow victory vs. WSU
The Oregon Ducks showed a lot of guts in a comeback win over the Washington State Cougars on the road last weekend. Facing a 12-point deficit with less than 5 minutes to play in the fourth quarter, QB Bo Nix led the team on a pair of scoring drives, and the defense got the necessary stop — including a game-sealing pick-six — and pulled out a thrilling victory on the road.
While we were impressed by the win, it appears that the computers saw it as cause for some doubt in Dan Lanning’s program. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Ducks’ win probability dropped almost unanimously across the board, with Oregon now a sizeable underdog to the Utah Utes after drawing nearly even with them a week ago in the FPI.
As always, we like to check in on ESPN’s Football Power Index after each game to see where the computers put Oregon, and if they have gained or lost confidence in the Ducks.
Here’s a look at the latest back of FPI predictions:
Week 5 vs. Stanford Cardinal
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Updated Win Percentage: 84.6% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 84.2% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: One of the few games where Oregon’s win probability went up, it’s pretty clear that the Ducks will out-match the Cardinal at home. However, Oregon’s history against Stanford is long and troublesome, and this game kicking off at 8 p.m. has the Ducks’ fanbase a bit on edge. Could be a prime opportunity for some Pac-12 After Dark voodoo to take place.
Week 6 at Arizona
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Updated Win Percentage: 79.8% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 78.3% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: While Arizona got off to a nice start to the season, I think it’s safe to say that they will be in over their heads in a majority of conference games. They get a rare Pac-12 cupcake this week against Colorado but don’t let that result convince you they will give the Ducks a massive test.
Week 8 vs. UCLA
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Updated Win Percentage: 72.0% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 78.4% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: One of the biggest drops in win probability for Oregon, it looks like the computers saw something they liked in UCLA’s win over Colorado? Okay… I’m not sure there’s a less-convincing 4-0 team in the country, as the Bruins’ wins have come against Bowling Green, South Alabama, Alabama State, and Colorado. Chip Kelly’s seat is growing warmer as legitimate opponents come to town.
Week 9 at California
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Updated Win Percentage: 65.9% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 72.0% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: It appears that Cal’s respectable win over Arizona impressed ESPN’s computers because they’ve taken a sizeable step up in the win probability against the Ducks. We will see how close this one is, as Oregon likely has a message to send to Justin Wilcox after he passed on the Ducks’ coaching job.
Week 10 at Colorado
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Updated Win Percentage: 93.7% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 93.8% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: A cupcake of all cupcakes, and it comes in Pac-12 play. There’s a legitimate case to be made for Colorado being the worst team in the nation. We’ll see who their coach is by the time Week 10 rolls around.
Week 11 vs. Washington
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Updated Win Percentage: 56.5% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 58.4% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: Fortunately for the Ducks, they have a string of relatively easy games leading up to this gauntlet at the end of the season. Washington comes to town after an impressive start to the season, and it will be interesting to see how this win probability reacts as the year goes on. This is setting up for a College GameDay site from the looks of it.
Week 12 vs. Utah
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Updated Win Percentage: 44.3% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 49.9% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: Utah did nothing to really impress this past week against Arizona State, but they took care of business easily while the Ducks struggled with Washington State. I suppose that’s enough for their win probability to grow in the only game on Oregon’s schedule where the Ducks aren’t favored to win.
Week 13 at Oregon State
Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sport
Updated Win Percentage: 55.9% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 57.4% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: Oregon State’s strong play against the USC Trojans has the computers believing in what Jonathan Smith has cooking up in Corvallis. This is going to be a rivalry game for the ages.
Season-Long Outlook
James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Win Conference: 11.8%
Previous: 14.0%
Make College Football Playoff: 0.9%
Previous: 1.1%
Make National Championship: 0.2%
Previous: 0.2 %
Win National Championship: 0.0%
Previous: 0.0%
