Estonian Commander-in-Chief names four factors to assess Russian threat to NATO

Russia must withdraw 300,000 troops from Ukraine in order to threaten NATO with an attack, Estonian news outlet ERR wrote on Jan. 23, citing the country’s Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief General Martin Herem.

"I am not going to prove here that Russia is a threat. But for this threat to materialize, we need to take into account four factors," he said.

Read also: Europe must rearm as new threats loom, German defense minister says

First, Russia must extricate itself from the war in Ukraine "by any means necessary" by withdrawing the bulk of its troops, or roughly 300,000 out of the 400,000 it has deployed.

Second, it will need time to recover or adapt. Given today's Russian military machine and the way society supports it, it will take at least a year to recover.

Third, even if Russia recovers in a year and Ukraine is stabilized, something significant must happen in the world: a super-pandemic, a total economic collapse, a war in Taiwan or the Balkans. In that case, "we have to be very vigilant” because Russia may attempt to take advantage of global instability.

Read also: Britain to send 20,000 troops to NATO training

The fourth factor the West can still change is how well it is prepared for a possible invasion.

"The better prepared we are, the less likely Russia will try it,” said Herem.

“But if we don't prepare for it and don't talk about it... then it can be expected. And hence these calculations for three to five years. Russia is unlikely to withdraw from Ukraine this year. Maybe next year, add another year or two, and it will be three," he said, noting that Russia does not hold back in Ukraine, and from May to December 2023 it managed to increase the number of its troops.

In addition, Moscow succeeded in bolstering its military-industrial complex.

"If we said last year that Russia was producing about a million shells a year, I think that this year it is producing several times more,” warned Herem.

“And this makes us all speak honestly about this threat. But there is no need to panic."

Earlier, Norwegian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Eirik Kristoffersen said his country has only a few years to build a defense capable of standing up to Russia.

Western militaries, as well as civilians, need to be prepared for an 'all-out war' with Russia that maysignificantly affect their lives, Britain's Sky News reported on Jan. 19, citing Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the NATO Military Committee.

Read also: Polish FM rejects idea of depleted Russia attacking NATO, touting might of defensive alliance

"We have to realize it's not a given that we will be at peace,” said Bauer. “That's why we must prepare for a conflict with Russia.”

The Russian invasion of Ukraine demonstrates that the world is now in an era when anything could happen at any time, including war, Bauer warned at the opening of a two-day meeting of national defense chiefs in Brussels, Reuters reported on Jan.17.

New military threats could emerge by the end of the decade and Europe must ensure it can defend itself, Germany's defense minister Boris Pistorius told Reuters on Dec. 16.

There are also fears Russia might attempt to attack Europe at the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025, when the US will be “without a leader” as a result of presidential elections.

The official's warning comes ahead of the launch of NATO's biggest exercise since the Cold War, as the alliance practices repelling an invasion by Russian forces.

Some 90,000 troops are set to join the Steadfast Defender exercise, which will take place across Europe through May.

We’re bringing the voice of Ukraine to the world. Support us with a one-time donation, or become a Patron!

Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine