European leaders ponder how to deal with British request for Brexit delay

European Union leaders are considering Boris Johnson's Brexit delay request and how to turn it to their own maximum advantage — though some are wondering if there’s any advantage left to gain.

After the British parliament withheld approval on the new Brexit deal clinched Thursday with the EU, forcing the prime minister to ask for a short extension, Johnson on Saturday night complied and sent Brussels a request to delay the Oct. 31 deadline until Jan. 31, 2020.

Johnson also sent a second letter to European Council President Donald Tusk, addressing him personally and by first name, to make clear that he is not happy about having been obliged to send the first letter, which he didn't sign.

"A further extension would damage the interests of the U.K. and our EU partners, and damage the relationship between us," Johnson wrote. "We must bring this process to a conclusion."

The three letters — there was also a cover letter by U.K. Ambassador to the EU Tim Barrow — don't change the legal bottom line as far as the other 27 nations in the European Union are concerned.

Tusk accepted the first pro forma missive as a request for an extension and immediately said he would begin consultations with EU27 leaders about how they wish to proceed.

Some EU officials and diplomats said that they expect leaders to move slowly.

EU ambassadors met briefly in Brussels Sunday morning for a session to take stock of the new circumstances following Saturday's developments in Westminster.

While ambassadors took note of the extension request, and agreed that Tusk should proceed with consultations, they did not engage in any substantive discussion on the U.K.’s request or the potential length of a delay, one diplomat said. They left with the expectation of meeting again later this week.

There was no immediate decision other than to wait for further developments in London and to initiate procedural steps for the new Brexit deal to be approved legally and sent to the European Parliament for ratification.

In the U.K., the second letter prompted some furious reaction from Johnson's political opponents, who said that he was acting to undermine the law. Some suggested legal action could be taken against him should he appear to be advocating for EU27 leaders to deny the extension request.

Next steps

Legal or not — in reality, such lobbying would have little impact in Brussels.

The EU27, anticipating further ratification difficulties in London, were already calculating how best to use the continuing British political chaos to their best advantage — mainly by using it to further convince the British public that Brussels has never obstructed the U.K.'s departure and is not responsible for the delay.

Beyond cementing EU victory in the so-called blame game, diplomat and officials said EU leaders' main goal has not changed: to do everything possible to eliminate any risk that the U.K. would leave in a chaotic and economically disastrous no-deal scenario. They also don't want to be drawn into the middle of the domestic political fight in the U.K.

Some EU officials and diplomats said that they expect leaders to move slowly, given that there are still 11 days until the Oct. 31 deadline and that events in Westminster — very much outside of the EU's control — could make the extension request irrelevant.

Johnson has made clear he wants to move forward with legislation needed for the U.K. to depart on Oct. 31, and is hoping to soon hold a so-called meaningful vote on the Withdrawal Agreement, perhaps on Tuesday.

"We have time," one EU diplomat said.

After Sunday morning's meeting, another diplomat said: "The EU decision regarding the next steps will be taken after the clarification of the situation in the British parliament."

Officials are grappling with the hole in the budget that will be left by the U.K.'s departure.

While some EU27 leaders, notably French President Emmanuel Macron, have expressed frustration with British dithering and urged that the Oct. 31 deadline be respected, any overt pressure, including threats of refusing to grant an extension, would risk alienating Johnson's opponents, including members of the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats who oppose Brexit, not to mention avidly pro-EU forces like the Scottish National Party.

One key factor that has changed from the previous two extension requests is that the forces pushing for delay in London are not opposed to the current Brexit deal as much as they seem to want to prevent Brexit altogether, or at least to force either a national election or another referendum allowing the British public a say on the new Withdrawal Agreement.

But while some EU leaders have said they are still hoping Brexit doesn't happen — notably Tusk who said Thursday "in my heart I will always be a Remainer" — a reversal is not necessarily as appealing for Brussels as it might seem.

If Brexit is stopped but British society remains deeply divided, with a large segment of the population opposing the EU, the U.K.'s continued membership could prove deeply problematic as British officials constantly calibrate their decision-making to take account of the domestic mood.

Even without the U.K.'s current active participation, some EU officials are frustrated that the bloc, which must approve most policy initiatives unanimously, cannot act quickly or decisively enough.

Length of delay

If EU27 leaders find themselves nearing October 31 and London is still deadlocked, they have a range of options. While Johnson's letter followed the law in requesting a delay until the end of January, the EU27 are under no obligation to agree to that specific date.

A shorter extension is possible, but could be seen as pressuring the U.K. parliament to ratify the current deal — as there is widespread agreement that a British election could not be organized until December at the earliest. A short extension, however, could potentially be more appealing to leaders like Macron who have expressed impatience.

Opting for the Jan. 31 date would leave open the possibility of a new vote in Britain, and has another advantage in that it would clearly not require any further negotiation or consultation with the U.K. It would also show the EU is not meddling by giving London no more or less than what it requested.

Another possibility is that the EU could extend the deadline much further, closer to Dec. 31, 2020 — currently the end date of the transition period called for in the Withdrawal Agreement.

While that would make Brexit very much London's problem, there are practical obstacles to a long delay — particularly the EU's need to push forward with negotiations on its next long-term budget.

It's not clear that Tusk will indeed convene another leaders' gathering.

Officials are grappling with the hole in the budget that will be left by the U.K.'s departure, and continuing uncertainty would further complicate what is an already excruciatingly difficult process.

In his second letter, Johnson graciously offered to come to Brussels for an additional European Council before the Oct. 31 deadline and apologized to Tusk that the Brexit matter was dragging on.

"If it would be helpful to you, of course I would be happy to attend," he wrote.

But it's not clear that Tusk will indeed convene another leaders' gathering. While normally leaders would prefer to gather around the table to discuss such a big decision in person, if a clear consensus emerges, there are legal mechanisms by which the EU could approve the delay through a written procedure.

The European Commission, which led the negotiations for the EU side, said it is awaiting further word from London. "It will be for the UK government to inform us about the next steps as soon as possible," the Commission's chief spokeswoman, Mina Andreeva, said Saturday in a statement after the extension request was sent.

She did not say if the clock is still ticking.

Anca Gurzu contributed reporting.