Evansville mayor candidates claim momentum for post-Labor Day stretch run

EVANSVILLE — All three candidates for mayor of Evansville have plausible reasons to claim momentum as the campaign to succeed Lloyd Winnecke enters its post-Labor Day stretch run.

Republican Natalie Rascher, Winnecke's choice to succeed him, launches into the campaign's final stage turbocharged by a recent endorsement from Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 73's political action committee. The local FOP has more than 500 active members. Rascher also has the support of Evansville Professional Fire Fighters local 357 and the Southern Indiana Builders Association, although the latter is not a formal endorsement.

Endorsed candidates typically trumpet the news on their campaign signs, a tradition Rascher has no reason not to uphold. She also has an FOP announcement press conference to look forward to, she said.

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"I'm sure that more signs will be popping up, and more stickers will be up on signs showing that support," said Rascher, senior talent acquisition advisor at Clifton Larson Allen. "A lot of big endorsements right before Labor Day weekend, and I think that momentum will just keep pushing us forward all the way across the finish line."

But Democrat Stephanie Terry and Libertarian Michael Daugherty can comfort themselves with the knowledge that endorsements don't always make much difference — and that they have made waves of their own in recent days.

Fresh off what many political observers called a strong performance at an Evansville Regional Economic Partnership candidate forum last week, Terry is pointing forward to a major campaign offensive Saturday. Her campaign has dubbed it a "Day of Action" that begins with a meetup at 11 a.m. at the Civic Center.

"We're pulling together all of our canvassers, and we'll go out in mass across the city," said Terry, a member of the Vanderburgh County Council since 2011 and executive director of the Children's Museum of Evansville (cMoe). "It's a big day where we're rallying a lot of our volunteers to go door knocking across the city. It's in addition to our regular, routine door-knocking, but this is a big day."

It likely will mark the largest single campaign event Terry has staged since she kicked off her campaign in January.

More: Democrat Terry took her time deciding to run for mayor of Evansville

Libertarian Daugherty launched the first in a series of seven planned TV commercials last Saturday with a spot aired during high-profile college football games on opening weekend of the season.

"Our ads ran during the IU-Ohio State game, which was major," Daugherty said. "I've already received a lot of feedback from additional donors. They saw my ads. They see the presence that I have with signage, as well as billboards.

"I think this weekend really kicked off our campaign with a bang."

More: Libertarian mayoral candidate pledges to remove Billy Bolin from his role as police chief

Daugherty has said he is in the race to win, but to do that he will have to overcome straight-ticket voting in both major parties and expand his support far beyond baseline Libertarian turnout.

More: Here's the man Libertarians are putting up for mayor of Evansville

Libertarians fell so far short of electing a mayor in 2019 that their nominee, Bart Gadau, finished 10 percentage points behind independent candidate Steve Ary, who had needed a petition drive to appear on the ballot. Libertarians already have ballot access by virtue of receiving at least 2% of the vote in elections for Indiana secretary of state.

But there is no question that Daugherty can affect the outcome of this year's mayoral race, potentially preventing any candidate from garnering a majority of votes. The winning candidate can win with a plurality.

More: Could Libertarian Michael Daugherty, the unlikeliest candidate to win, sway the mayoral election?

FOP supports Rascher; chief backs Terry

The FOP's endorsement of Republican Rascher for mayor follows by three weeks a Courier & Press report that Police Chief Billy Bolin is supporting Democrat Terry.

Bolin cited Terry's support last year as a member of the County Council for a 33% raise in sheriff's deputies' salaries over the following four years. The chief also candidly admitted that Terry would be more likely than Rascher to elevate Assistant Police Chief Phil Smith to chief. And Bolin, who plans to retire from EPD in 2025, would like for Smith to succeed him.

More: Here's why Evansville's top cop is taking a stand in the race for mayor

But that may not have done Terry any favors with the FOP. In 2019, EPD officers declared "no confidence" in Bolin in a formal vote of FOP Lodge 73. It was the first time a vote of no confidence was held regarding a sitting police chief.

More: Mayoral candidates find common ground on 'underutilized' Evansville asset during forum

Does the FOP's endorsement mean victory?

It's hard to tell how much impact the FOP's endorsement will have on the mayoral race. Local candidates typically seek the police union's endorsement vigorously and shout it from the rooftops it if it comes — but it hasn't proven decisive in elections.

Elections for Vanderburgh County prosecutor — an office in which law enforcement officers are keenly interested — illustrate the point.

More: Police union endorsement hasn't been decisive in past prosecutor races

In 2006 and 2010, Nick Hermann and Stan Levco's first two campaigns against each other, the FOP endorsed Hermann. Police unionists spoke out publicly, knocked on doors and actively spread the word to their own families and friends.

In 2006, Republican Hermann lost to Democratic incumbent Levco with just under 41% of the vote — less than what he could reasonably expect just for being the GOP's nominee. It was only slightly better than the 38 percent that Republican sheriff candidate Robert Goedde got — and Goedde was not endorsed by the FOP. It was an overall bad year for local Republicans.

More: Officers chart rocky path in Vanderburgh prosecutor race

But in 2010 — a year most local Republican candidates won — Hermann won with almost 54% of the vote.

The FOP endorsed Democrat Levco in his 2018 comeback bid against Hermann — but Hermann won. In 2022, the FOP endorsed Republican Diane Moers for prosecutor — and like almost all the GOP's local candidates that year, Moers won.

Most recently, the FOP endorsed County Commissioner Cheryl Musgrave in this year's Republican primary for mayor — and Musgrave lost by 28 percentage points to Rascher.

Election Day is Nov. 7. Early voting begins on Oct. 11.

This article originally appeared on Evansville Courier & Press: Evansville mayor candidates claim momentum for post-Labor Day stretch run