Even with 3-2 lead, there’s pressure on Heat entering Game 6: ‘We got to respond on Friday’

The odds are still on the Miami Heat’s side, but the Heat is just one loss from the odds shifting in the New York Knicks’ favor.

By building a 3-1 lead in the best-of-7 second-round playoff series, the Heat earned three opportunities to close out the Knicks. The eighth-seeded Heat couldn’t take advantage of the first one, falling to the fifth-seeded Knicks 112-103 in Game 5 on Wednesday night at Madison Square Garden.

The positive news for the Heat is it’s still the front-runner in the series with a 3-2 lead, as it returns to Miami to host Game 6 on Friday (7:30 p.m., ESPN) for the second close-out opportunity. Entering this year’s playoffs, teams that led a best-of-7 series 3-2 went on to win the series 83.9 percent of the time (281-54).

“We got to get back home and protect home court,” Heat star Jimmy Butler said, emphasizing the importance of Friday’s contest.

But if the Heat somehow loses Game 6 at home and has to travel to New York for a win-or-go-home Game 7 on Monday, the Knicks will suddenly find themselves with the odds on their side and just one win from becoming the 14th team in NBA history to rally from a 3-1 deficit to win a best-of-7 playoff series. Entering this year’s playoffs, home teams have won Game 7 of a series 75.9 percent of the time (110-35).

“They did their job, they protected home court and we got to respond on Friday,” Heat guard Kyle Lowry said.

There are a few things the Heat knows it must do better to improve its chances of ending the series in Game 6 to punch its ticket to the East finals for the third time in four seasons. The winner of the Heat-Knicks series will take on the winner of the Boston Celtics-Philadelphia 76ers series in the conference finals.

First, the Heat needs to make a higher percentage of its threes.

After shooting an incredibly efficient 45 percent from three-point range in its five-game first-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks, the Heat is shooting just 31.2 percent from behind the arc in the second round.

The Heat finished Wednesday’s Game 5 loss just 13 of 43 (30.2 percent) from deep. That includes 4 of 17 (23.5 percent) on open three-point shots (defined as when the closest defender is four to six feet away), according to NBA tracking stats, against a Knicks defense that prioritized protecting the paint and consistently sent extra defenders at Butler.

In total, 36 of the Heat’s 43 three-point attempts Wednesday were classified as open or wide open by NBA tracking data.

“There were a bunch of wide-open ones,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said following Game 5 when asked about the three-point looks generated in the loss. “... Would that have changed things if we had knocked down a few of those open looks? It potentially could have, but you got to find a way to win even if you’re not knocking down wide open threes. I do like that we were generating open ones. That’s tough to do in the playoffs. But you got to find a different way to win.”

The three-point shooting regression from the first round to the second round is concerning because the Heat has been one of the league’s worst outside-shooting teams for most of the season. Miami closed the regular season with the league’s fourth-worst team three-point percentage at 34.4 percent.

“We missed a lot of shots tonight, and I think they were shots we think we can make, we know we can make and we will make,” Lowry said of Wednesday’s three-point shooting performance. “We just got to watch the film and see where we can get better. But just keep shooting with confidence.”

Second, the Heat needs to find a way to slow Knicks guard Jalen Brunson.

Brunson was the star of Game 5, finishing the Knicks’ win with a game-high 38 points on 12-of-22 shooting from the field, 4-of-10 shooting from three-point range and 10-of-12 shooting from the foul line to go with nine rebounds and seven assists while playing every second of the contest.

Brunson has totaled 70 points on 22-of-43 (51.2 percent) shooting from the field and 20-of-23 (87 percent) shooting from the foul line in the past two games.

“He’s just really crafty,” Heat center Bam Adebayo said of Brunson. “It’s one of the things about him, but our job is to make him take difficult shots. I feel like he got in a little groove in his pocket spots, and he was making his shots.”

Whether the Heat has used Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, Lowry or Butler on him, Brunson has been able to consistently find soft spots in the defense. Brunson has totaled 28 points and drawn 18 fouls during the last two games.

“He has a great competitive will,” Spoelstra said of Brunson. “So, he’s going to continue to attack, he’s going to try to manipulate the defense. He’s aggressive, he’s physical, but he also knows how to draw fouls. He’s clever, so he has that combination. So be it, you have to respect him as a competitor and then find a way to get the job done.”

Butler will also look to bounce back from his lowest-scoring performance of this year’s playoffs, with 19 points on 5-of-12 shooting from the field and 9-of-11 shooting from the foul line in Wednesday’s loss. He did stuff the boxscore, though, finishing with seven rebounds, nine assists, four steals and two blocks in 43 minutes as the Knicks sent double- and triple-teams his way.

But with one of the Heat’s top scorers Tyler Herro still out after he broke his right hand in the first game of the playoffs, Miami has relied on Butler to take on a bigger scoring role this postseason. Butler is averaging 31.9 points per game on 55.1 percent shooting from the field in this year’s playoffs.

Butler missed Game 2 of the second round after spraining his right ankle in the series opener. It’s fair to wonder how much the lingering pain from that injury is affecting him, as Butler sat for an extended period at his locker to treat his ankle following Wednesday’s loss.

“I was making all the right plays. I’m not a scorer anyway,” Butler said, brushing off a question about his lowest-scoring game of the playoffs. “So I don’t know how many I had? Nineteen or something like that, that’s enough for us to win. If we make a couple more shots, I don’t think that question is asked the exact same way. It doesn’t matter if I score 40 or 50, 19 or nine. We always have enough to win. If I score 10 points next game and we win, that won’t be an issue and that won’t be a question and I will continue to play the right way.”

The Heat definitely has a few things to clean up and do better in Game 6. But the overall mission is simple on Friday: win and avoid Game 7.

“Protect home,” Adebayo said. “That’s the biggest thing for us, protecting home.”