Examining NFL draft’s top three running backs and who makes the most sense for Dolphins

Two things that many Dolphins fans wanted to will into existence on the night of this past January’s national championship game — Alabama stars DeVonta Smith and Najee Harris teaming up again with Tua Tagovailoa — remain possibilities but also, in some ways, shaky propositions with the draft approaching.

Now let’s be clear: Smith and Harris would be excellent additions for Miami, players who fill needs for a top receiver (Smith) and a legitimate bell-cow back (Harris).

The issue with Smith isn’t his skill set; it’s whether Miami has a chance to draft players considered better prospects by many evaluators (UF’s Kyle Pitts, LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase) at No. 6.

With Harris, the conundrum is the fact that many project him to go between the Dolphins’ picks at 18 and 36, perhaps to Pittsburgh at 24. A case could be made to take him at 18, but a running back that high typically isn’t good value, and a longtime league executive said he would be surprised if the Dolphins do that.

It’s possible Harris could slip to 36, but the odds are against it, and an arguably comparable talent (North Carolina’s Jevonta Williams) could be available in the 30s.

Which raises this question: Should the Dolphins use the 18th pick for another need (edge player, perhaps) and hope/assume that one among Harris, Williams and Clemson’s Travis Etienne is available at 36?

That would be my expectation, especially with NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah saying he has spoken to teams and now believes that a running back won’t be picked by anyone in the first round. The Dolphins would be taking a risk if any of the three are available at 36, and the Dolphins gamble that they’ll be available at 50.

ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr., in his latest mock draft released Wednesday, has Harris going 24th to Pittsburgh, Etienne 34th to the Jets and Williams 36th to the Dolphins.

Jeremiah isn’t convinced that Harris is the best back in the draft; he has Williams ahead of Harris and Etienne.

Jeremiah said Williams is “just like [Browns running back] Nick Chubb, and when you watch him you see it. When you talk to the coaches at North Carolina — they have some coaches there that have come from Georgia — and they say that the similarities [with Williams and Chubb] are eerie, [that] they’re all business, physical, great leaders, can catch the ball out of the backfield, can do a lot of different things.

“I loved [Williams] from the first tape that I popped on. I didn’t hear much about him during the fall. They ran the heck out of him and Michael Carter their other running back at North Carolina who is another really good player who’s probably going to go in the third round. They had a great backfield. To me, he’s a complete back.”

Chubb, incidentally, has been a Pro Bowler the past two seasons. So if Williams becomes Chubb, that’s a great option for Miami at 36 or 50, if he’s still there.

What about Etienne and Harris by comparison?

Jeremiah said Harris is “230 pounds, has balance and can bang inside but can also get involved in the pass game. Etienne is maybe a little bit undersized but has big-time juice, big-time speed.

“Williams kind of gives you a little bit of everything. He’s 220 pounds, but he has big-time burst and he’s got really good vision, and to me while you’re starting to see him pop up more, he’s my 32nd player and he’s going to continue to go up because everything I keep finding out from the school and from guys that have been around him and coached him and played with him is the kid’s wiring is off the charts.

“In a year where we don’t maybe have as much information, when you get a kid who’s got great tape, who’s got height, weight, speed and now the character and the work ethic is off the charts, you bet on those kids.”

Still, many evaluators believe Harris is the best back in this draft; one former NFC general manager told me he would strongly consider him at 18.

Here are their numbers in 2020:

Harris: 251 carries for 1,466 yards (5.8 per carry) and 26 touchdowns in 13 games, plus 43 catches for 425 yards (9.9 average) and four touchdowns.

Williams: 157 carries for 1,140 yards (7.3 average) and 19 touchdowns in 11 games, plus 25 catches for 305 yards (12.2 average) and three touchdowns.

Etienne: 168 carries for 914 yards (5.4 average) and 14 touchdowns in 12 games, plus 48 catches for 588 yards (12.3 average) and two touchdown receptions.

Here are their career numbers:

Harris: 638 for 3,843 (6.0 per carry) and 46 touchdowns in 51 college games, plus 80 catches for 781 yards (9.8 average) and 11 receiving touchdowns.

Williams: 366 carries for 2,297 yards (6.3 average) and 29 touchdowns in 34 games, plus 50 catches for 539 yards (10.8 average) and four touchdown receptions.

Etienne: 686 carries for 4,952 yards (7.2 average) and 70 touchdowns in 55 games, plus 102 catches for 1,155 yards (11.3 average) and eight touchdown receptions.

More reaction on each:

HARRIS

ESPN’s Todd McShay: “Harris has great size and good speed, and he has shown excellent ball security. He is strong on contact and slippery between the tackles. I was previously a bit concerned he danced too much, looking for the home run, but Harris was decisive in his final season at Alabama. His 26 rushing touchdowns ranked No. 1 in the country this past season, and his 1,466 rushing yards were No. 3. He looks improved in pass protection too and remains underrated as a pass-catcher.”

NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein: “Harris showed improved short-area creativity and elusiveness to go with his trademark physicality. Creates additional yardage with both wiggle and power, but he lacks desired top gear to change games in a flash. He handled a heavier lift in 2020, with almost 300 total touches in 13 games. Harris’ value as a third-down option out of the backfield and as a personal protector should not be underestimated after his performance in his senior year. His running style could shorten his career, but he’s a tough, three-down runner who can immediately upgrade a running game.”

Kiper: “He could grind down defenses as a runner and help in the short passing game. If Harris goes in Round 1, he’ll be the fifth Alabama running back picked in the first round since 2000. The others: Josh Jacobs [2019], Trent Richardson [2012], Mark Ingram [2011] and Shaun Alexander [2000].” Derrick Henry was a second-round pick in 2016.

ETIENNE

McShay: “Etienne has above-average speed with an explosive second gear when he hits daylight. He is a real home run hitter in space, breaking off 19 plays for 20-plus yards this season. I like his contact balance too.”

NFL.com’s Zierlein: “His contact balance and overall will to avoid being tackled has earned plenty of tough yardage. He has average size and runs with long strides and a frenetic pace that hampers his quick-cut control and fluidity at times. However, he has home run speed in the open field and runs with fury and pop to finish near the goal line. He’s a greatly improved pass-catching option but needs to step up consistently in pass protection. His tools for creating yardage stand out during games, and that same presence should be on display as a dangerous pro back.”

Kiper: “Home run hitter and all-around back.”

WILLIAMS

Kiper, who slots Williams 36th to Miami: “Williams is a really good player, a back who breaks tackles and has some wheels. There isn’t that much separation between Williams, Najee Harris and Travis Etienne as the top backs in this class. This is a massive hole for Miami, and it still has another pick [No. 50] to add offensive line help.”

NFL.com’s Zierlein: “Big, broad bully back who runs with an exciting blend of animosity and feel as a future every-down starter in the league. With just 366 carries under his collegiate belt, Williams hasn’t seen much tread come off the tires, but teams might speculate that his running style could lead to some in-season wear and tear. He’s a terror behind his pads, creating yardage by battering and discarding tackle attempts. .. He will drop passes from time to time but has the route-running and protection toughness to take over as a three-down RB1 fairly early in his career.”

Coming Wednesday: A look at the other top available backs if the Dolphins don’t land one of these three.

Here’s my Tuesday UM piece, including developments with two top recruits in recent years.

Here’s my Tuesday Miami Marlins nuggets, with Craig Mish.