Exclusive: TSA report saw low risk of a terrorist attack on mass transit 2 weeks before New York subway shooting

Jana Winter
·Investigative Correspondent
·4 min read

Frank James was charged Wednesday with carrying out a terrorist attack on mass transit, federal prosecutors in New York announced, after allegedly opening fire Tuesday morning on a subway train, wounding 10 people and leaving an additional 13 injured in the melee that followed.

The attack, Yahoo News has learned, came two weeks after the Transportation Security Administration issued an annual mass transit threat assessment that concluded the threat to mass transit and rail systems for 2022 was “low,” which TSA defines as “adversaries very likely have only minimal intent to attack the target OR if they do are almost certainly incapable of attacking it.”

Yahoo News reviewed a copy of the 23-page report assessment that was sent to police departments and mass transportation systems across the country, including the NYPD and the Metropolitan Transit Authority, which operates the New York subway system. The TSA is charged with overseeing security of the nation’s rail systems like Amtrak, which feeds into the subway system. This report was marked “Sensitive Security Information” and was not made public.

“Our assessment of threat actor intent and capability has not changed over the past year,” the assessment, dated March 28, reads. “We anticipate the MTPR [mass transit and passenger rail] threat level will remain low throughout 2022.”

Frank James
Frank James, the suspect in the Brooklyn subway shooting, outside a police precinct in New York City on Wednesday. (Andrew Kelly/Reuters)

But the report also acknowledged that the nation’s rail and mass transit systems remain vulnerable to terrorist attacks such as the one James is accused of carrying out on Tuesday.

“We judge that terrorists almost certainly maintain the capability to conduct attacks against MTPR in the Homeland using unsophisticated tactics, including armed assault, arson, rudimentary IEDs [improvised explosive devices], and sabotage,” the assessment states. “Terrorists operating abroad successfully used unsophisticated attack tactics against MTPR systems in 2021, and the material needed to conduct these types of attack are almost certainly accessible to domestic-based threat actors.”

The March 28, 2022, assessment also noted that the TSA’s “ability to capture all extremist messaging is limited by terrorists’ increasing use of encrypted platforms and closed chatrooms.” But officials in New York have said the suspect posted public videos on a YouTube channel in which he talked about killing people and discussed a plan announced by Adams and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul to protect people on the city’s subway system.

In a video posted on March 18, James said he was ready to carry out an unspecified plan.

“Since [expletive] are trying to get me locked up, why don’t I just plan to get myself locked up? But I planned and I prepared and I’ll be ready for it,” he said in the video. “I’ll do what I have to do and just resign myself to the fact, no regrets, I had nothing to lose and let that be it.”

Law enforcement officers outside the scene of the shooting
Law enforcement officers outside the scene of the shooting in Brooklyn on Tuesday. (Andrew Kelly/Reuters)

The NYPD did not immediately respond to Yahoo News’ questions about the impact of this threat assessment on police security posture in the New York City subway system or if more police would have been deployed to the subway if the TSA’s threat assessment had determined there was a medium or high level of threat.

The report was produced by the TSA and in coordination with the Department of Homeland Security’s Counterterrorism Mission Center, the FBI and the Department of Transportation.

The DHS, the TSA and the Department of Transportation did not immediately return Yahoo News’ request for comment.

“We have found no record of an investigation of Frank James before the shooting," Michael Driscoll, Assistant Director in charge of the FBI’s New York field office said in a Wednesday press conference.

In an email to Yahoo News, the MTA said it was working with police and local officials on the investigation into Tuesday’s shooting.

“With the support of Governor Hochul, Mayor Adams has made a powerful commitment to subway safety and has already taken significant steps to increase the presence and visibility of NYPD officers in the transit system — especially on platforms and trains, where riders want to see them most. We look forward to continuing to strengthen this partnership as we restore riders’ confidence in the transit system.”