What to expect here at the Iowa caucuses? Haley and DeSantis face a steep uphill climb | Opinion

The Iowa caucuses are Monday, and all the action is on the Republican side. After former Democratic National Committee chair Tom Perez blew up the party’s 2020 caucuses by shoving an untested app down our throats, Joe Biden — who has never done well in Iowa — put the final shovelful of dirt on the grave of the Democratic end of things.

Iowa Democrats are doing their best by asking Democrats to turn in caucus preference cards and attending party meetings Monday night, but there’s little excitement about the process. Sure, they are behind Biden 100%, and fear any Republican in the Oval Office, but the thrill of the caucuses is gone.

Donald Trump is leading Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley by more than 30 points in most polls, so here the race is for second. The media narrative is that DeSantis is fading, and Haley is on the rise. However, the Florida governor is much better on the ground here in Iowa than on TV, and I’m sad to say that many of my fellow Iowans love his casual cruelty. His loudest cheers come when he exclaims how proud he is about shipping immigrants from the border (which his home state doesn’t touch) to northern cities. I’m old enough to remember when that would have been called human trafficking.

What has really hurt DeSantis is the media focus on his white boots, pudding fingers, and other minor missteps. That and they don’t like his facial expressions and body language — clearly more important things to talk about than his policies. Not so much.

Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and evangelical Christian kingmaker Bob Vander Plaats have endorsed DeSantis. Reynolds’ backing won’t move the needle, and Vander Plaats’ nod might hurt. Many on the right — especially Trump supporters — are tired of the sanctimonious churchy folk trying to drag them to the pews as well as the voting booth. Vander Plaats also brought them losers Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum and Ted Cruz in years past.

Some Republican voters warm to Nikki Haley

Iowa Republicans love Haley — unless they love Trump. She’s too much of a RINO for that group, and her policies too reasonable. She’s not the blunt instrument they like. Yet at her events, she shows genuine rapport with the crowds, especially among women. I have many Republican friends who love Trump, and when I tell them I think Haley has the best chance to beat Biden, they don’t care. They are all-in on Trump, sink or swim. A few of my friends whom I call Eisenhower Republicans, who were troubled by Trump, have soured on DeSantis and recently broke for Haley. The fact that she is now within striking distance of Trump in New Hampshire will help her.

I’ve been to many Vivek Ramaswamy events over the past few months — and have talked to him enough to like him as a person — but over the holidays, there was a hint of desperation in the air as he circled the drain. We’ll see if he has a future in politics, but I will say it has been interesting to have had him around.

Asa Hutchinson either prefers Iowa over his native Arkansas, or his family needs to do an intervention. If he is still in the race Tuesday morning, he’s delusional.

Here in Iowa, Trump is at the sloppy top of his game. He blathers on about magnets, windmills and more. I was at the event in Newton where he said he could have negotiated us through the Civil War. People around me nodded and applauded. That it would have been impossible was irrelevant. Give the guy a chance! He knows the art of the deal!

People thought Trump’s court troubles would keep him out of Iowa. Didn’t happen. The Des Moines Register reports he has held 25 rallies since March 13, 2021. While that doesn’t compare with other candidates, each of his rallies packs a more powerful punch than maybe 100 of theirs.

His rallies are rites of intensification that build community, always with music and often with dancing. It’s cosplay in MAGA gear. When he takes the stage to Lee Greenwood’s “God Bless the USA,” the music doesn’t fade to allow him to speak. He stands there, in his magnificence, as the entire song plays — looking into the eyes of as many members of the audience he can, making personal connections, occasionally nodding, smiling at or pointing at someone.

Marion County GOP holds Trump fan meetings

Here where I live, in Marion County, Trump is so loved that the county Republican Party has its monthly central committee meeting, but for months they have also been holding a separate monthly meeting just for Trump supporters.

Trump had almost no ground game in 2016, and now he has the best data of any campaign. Staffers work the crowds with commit-to-caucus cards not only at his rallies but at other events he isn’t even at, like the Vander Plaats Family Leadership Summit. Trump has built a powerful team that is like no other, and he makes his followers feel loved — comrades on the battlefield for the future of our nation.

On Monday night, Iowa Republicans will gather in churches, libraries and other community centers to hold our storied caucuses to launch the nomination cycle.

Real Clear Politics polling as of Jan. 9 had Trump with a 35.6% lead over Haley and DeSantis in Iowa, both holding close to 17% of Republicans preferring them. The race is for second in Iowa. If Haley beats expectations, she will go into New Hampshire strong on Jan. 23, and then head to her home state on Feb. 3 to see if she can make a run against Trump. If he doesn’t do well, Ron DeSantis will go home and — knowing which way the wind is blowing — will likely endorse Trump

The forecast for Monday, caucus day, has a predicted high in Des Moines of minus 5 degrees, and a low of minus 15. I’ve stood in lines with thousands of other Iowans at Trump rallies for hours in stroke-inducing heat and shivered at others when it was below freezing. No matter how bad the weather, no one walks away.

The MAGA army will be there Monday. I’m not so sure of DeSantis or Haley supporters. Believe it or not, Trump could beat expectations.

Robert Leonard is an anthropologist in Knoxville/Pella, Iowa. He writes the newsletter Deep Midwest: Politics and Culture at rleonard.substack.com