Expect more fire-weather days in Hampton Roads and North Carolina, study says. Here’s what that means.
“Fire-weather days” have been on the rise in Hampton Roads and beyond in recent decades, a new study says.
According to a report from Climate Central, a policy-neutral nonprofit studying the effects of climate change on daily life, the region’s average yearly number of such days has increased since 1973.
But you may be wondering, “What is fire weather?”
Fire weather occurs when atmospheric conditions are favorable for flame growth and smoke dispersion.
In the report, fire-weather days are defined as a day during which certain conditions are detected in at least two hourly measurements: minimum relative humidity within 5% of regional thresholds; temperatures of at least 45-55 degrees Fahrenheit, depending on the season; and sustained winds of 15 mph or greater.
“Many communities in the U.S. accustomed to living with wildfire risks are now dealing with more frequent fire weather. But for some parts of the country, the increase in fire weather days brings novel risks for which they may be unprepared,” the report reads. “In addition to increasing the risk of fire, these extreme conditions are causing problems even when wildfires don’t ignite.”
The Tidewater region (on average) has two fire-weather days in winter, four in spring, zero during the summer and one in the fall. Based on the report’s results, the yearly estimate has increased by three days since 1973. Along the coastal plains of North Carolina, fire-weather days have increased by 18 days.
Though Hampton Roads has had a smaller increase than other parts of the East Coast, impacts south and west of the region can influence air quality for local residents. In Northern Virginia, fire-weather days have increased eight days compared to 50 years ago. The northern Piedmont region in North Carolina has faced an increase of fire-weather days by nearly two weeks, and since wind patterns move to Hampton Roads from the south and west, impacts in North Carolina can make their way here.
“While the changes in fire weather days overall are smaller in the East than in the West, seasonal trends are emerging,” the report reads. “Across much of the region, the greatest increase in fire weather days is happening in the spring months. This change aligns with spring warming trends experienced in many eastern states.”
According to data from the National Weather Service in Wakefield, maximum temperature records during the spring have been broken twice over the past few years. In 2020, Norfolk recorded its highest March temperature, topping out at 88 degrees one day. In 2021, the record for the hottest day in May was set when Norfolk reached 97 degrees.
Earlier this month, air quality in Hampton Roads diminished as wildfire smoke from Canada was brought in by a northern cold front. By 2 p.m. on June 7, Peninsula air quality spiked to 197, and Virginia Beach recorded a 189. At 200, air is considered “very unhealthy.” Now, climate experts are warning this could become more common as drought in the West persists and rising temperatures add more fire-weather days.
