What to expect on NJ's first Black Friday of the COVID vaccine era? Here's our guide

Labor shortages, shipping delays and delta variants, oh, my!

The first big holiday shopping season since COVID-19 vaccines became widely available is upon us. But in a world still full of uncertainty, you're probably wondering what to expect on Black Friday.

Here's a guide, based on conversations with merchants, mall owners and retail experts.

Can I shop on Thanksgiving Day?

For the most part, no. Most major retailers started to announce Thanksgiving Day closures in June.

Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Kohl's and Bed Bath & Beyond will all be shut.

As for the malls, Garden State Plaza, American Dream, The Shops at Riverside, Bergen Town Center and Willowbrook Mall all plan to take the day off as well.

Online sales are predicted to dominate on the biggest shopping weekend of the year, starting with Thanksgiving, according to a report by Coresight Research, which tracks retail data.

When will stores open on Black Friday?

All major retailers will be open on Black Friday, most with special early holiday shopping hours and promotions.

American Dream, Garden State Plaza and Bergen Town Center will open their doors to the public at 7 a.m. In Morris County, Rockaway Townsquare will open at 6 a.m. Willowbrook stores will open as early as midnight.

Will there be a crowd?

That depends. Malls and storefronts will be offering incentives to lure back consumers, but can they overcome the ease of e-commerce?

Shoppers who show up early to American Dream can get free tickets to the East Rutherford mall's entertainment options, including DreamWorks Water Park and the Nickelodeon Universe Theme Park, according to Jill Renslow, an executive vice president with mall owner Triple Five.

In a Coresight Research survey this month, 51% of U.S. respondents said they plan to do their Black Friday shopping online. Another 25% said they'll shop in person, and 22% were still undecided.

Last year, COVID produced the "quietest Black Friday in 20 years," the firm said.

That will change this holiday season with a "fair return of people coming back to shop," predicted Chuck Lanyard, president of retail brokerage firm The Goldstein Group in Paramus.

"Malls will still have their problems and suffer from losing their big-box anchors," Lanyard said. "But people still like going to malls, and we can expect to see more discounting to draw people in."

Will stores have items in stock?

Yes, but Black Friday merchandise could come with a higher price tag, said Luis Portes, a professor of economics at Montclair State University.

“For those in retail, Christmas orders are placed at the latest by June, so that they are in stock by late October,” he explained.

Merchandise will be in stock, but shortages may prevent some of the usual Black Friday promotions or discounts on specific items.

The good news is that supply chain backlogs are starting to ease, with local and federal authorities intervening to accelerate processing at ports. However, Portes said, disruptions and high freight costs remain, so some goods may be more expensive, with businesses passing the inflation on to consumers.

People will be shopping earlier than Black Friday this year because of supply chain worries, Lanyard said.

"Even if there are higher prices with inflation and shortages, people won't want to disappoint their loved ones," he said.

Will staffing be an issue?

Malls have been holding job fairs to help combat the kind of labor shortages that have affected many other businesses recently. U.S. retailers are expected to hire 500,000 to 665,000 seasonal workers, up from 486,000 last year, according to the National Retail Federation.

"Some of this hiring may have already occurred in October as many retailers concerned by the current labor shortage have brought staff on board early," the trade group said in a Nov. 2 report. "More consumers have reported beginning their shopping early than in the past, possibly also driving early retail hiring."

Westfield Garden State Plaza in Paramus held a two-day job fair this month, and American Dream also had a large event, at which many candidates were hired on the spot.

Retailers are also increasing wages, adding benefits and shuttling existing workers between stores or departments to fill the gaps. Macy's, for example, said it is increasing its minimum wage to $15 an hour and will spend $35 million over the next four years to cover employees' education costs.

NJ labor shortage: Holiday jobs are available, but where are the workers?

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Will there be COVID-19 protocols?

Most malls and retail stores have been following guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since they were able to reopen, and that's not expected to change.

The CDC still recommends wearing a mask indoors in public if you are in a region of substantial or high transmission, even if you are fully vaccinated.

For retail workers, the agency also recommends encouraging customers to use touchless payment options when available or asking customers to place cash on the counter instead of directly into an employee's hands. Counters should be wiped after each shopper.

Even within a mall, some stores may require different rules.

"Safety has been our top priority with the pandemic and has been consistent with CDC guidelines," Renslow said. "Individual retailers may have their own rules, so be aware and be respectful of different brands."

Correction: A previous version of this story included incorrect holiday hours for the Willowbrook Mall.

Staff Writer Michael L. Diamond contributed to this article.

Kristie Cattafi is a local reporter for NorthJersey.com. For unlimited access to the most important news from your local community, please subscribe or activate your digital account today.

Email: cattafi@northjersey.com

Twitter: @KristieCattafi

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Black Friday 2021 in NJ: Our guide to deals and more