Expectations remain high at Utah State — think bowl eligibility and Mountain West title contention. Is that fair?
At 1-3 to start the season, things are not looking all that great for Utah State football right now.
The Aggies have struggled mightily to start games this year, continuing a trend that has been prevalent throughout the Blake Anderson era.
In three games played against FBS opponents thus far, USU has been outscored 53-0 in the first quarter and has been out-gained 472 total yards to 14.
Thanks to the early season struggles, per ESPN Analytics, Utah State is expected to win only four more games this season, this weekend at UConn, the following weekend at home against Colorado State, at home against Nevada in mid-November and in the regular season finale at New Mexico on Black Friday.
Simple math says if those projections play out, the Aggies will not be bowl eligible this season, meaning USU wouldn’t go bowling for the first time since 2016 (excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season).
The latest from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) largely backs that up, with Utah State currently expected to win between 5.4 and 6.7 games.
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That isn’t ideal to be sure, nor in line with the expectations Utah State football has. Not anymore.
(Utah State has gone bowling 10 times since 2011.)
“I expect us to find a way to fight and claw and be bowl eligible and be in the (Mountain West) conference race,” head coach Blake Anderson said Monday. “If I expect anything different I don’t need to be the head coach here.”
Is that a realistic expectation though?
Utah State’s roster was completely remade during the offseason, when 30-plus players left via the NCAA transfer portal, a number that doesn’t included graduations and others who simply ended their football careers.
Included in the transfer portal losses were multiple key Aggie starters — on both sides of the ball — many of whom ended up at Power Five programs.
As a result, Utah State brought in 60-plus new players, including 40 scholarship players.
The word rebuild wasn’t thrown around all that much in the lead up to the 2023 season, but more and more it appears apparent that that is where USU football is as a program.
Anderson conceded as much, days after Utah State’s loss to James Madison.
“Growing up a team with this many new bodies is going to take much longer than any of us want, especially me and I know for the fans as well,” he said. “But this is bigger than one game. It is bigger than one season. We’ve got to get this thing solid for the future. And that starts today. It started when we brought all these dudes in here.”
There are positives on that front.
The Aggies’ three losses have come against teams that are a combined 11-1 this season. Air Force is a contender for the MW crown, while James Madison may well be the favorite to win the Sun Belt Conference at this point. As for Iowa, the Hawkeyes are who they are, i.e. a solid Big Ten team.
Utah State was in position to beat two of those three teams (Iowa and JMU), even with dismal starts.
The Aggies’ comeback from 24-0 to 38-38 against the Dukes was particularly encouraging.
True freshman quarterback McCae Hillstead has also been a serious bright spot, since taking over for Cooper Legas during the Air Force game.
Hillstead had a record performance for a freshman signal caller against James Madison and has shown flashes of elite ability.
There is also the development of the tailback room (Davon Booth had a strong outing against the Dukes), growth in the secondary and along the defensive line, all of which should engender excitement going forward.
“I expect them to keep fighting and they are and they keep getting better,” Anderson said. “We could win every game or we could lose every game. This is a team that’s still growing and learning. But if we can grow up and play better in the first quarter, show some consistency, we can win every one of these. There’s not a team on our schedule that we can’t beat.”
Most important for Anderson, though, is the continued development of his team and program. And if it leads to wins, a bowl game and MW contention, all the better.
“What they’re going to do is continue continue to fight,” he said. “We’re going to keep growing them up, keep teaching them, keep giving them every ounce of energy we got. And I’d like to think that we’re gonna get on a run of wins and we’re gonna make a bowl game and we’re going to be competitive in the league.
“That’s our goal. And to be our best every week. We’ve not been that yet. The first step is to be our best one week at a time. In terms of what our expectations (for this team) are, we want to be our best every week. That gives us a chance to win. Every decision, every move every rep, every game plan, everything we do is built around that. The results just don’t always come the way you want.”
