Expert: Amber Alert cases 'incredibly difficult to predict'
Wynter Cole-Smith, a smiling 2-year-old wearing a T-shirt with a rainbow pattern, was Michigan's first Amber Alert this year, according to State Police.
A little over three hours after her mother was found about 11:20 p.m. July 2 by police stabbed and assaulted in her home in Lansing, cellphones across the state blared with the Amber Alert, waking many from a sound sleep and asking the public's help to find the little girl and her captor.
About two hours after the 2:41 a.m. alert last Monday, the vehicle suspected in the kidnapping of Wynter and assault of her mother was spotted by an officer on patrol in St. Clair Shores. Detective Sgt. Eric Bowers said officers knew about the Amber Alert as well as a police generated "be on the lookout." Lansing Police said it put out a message to law enforcement statewide at 12:12 a.m. that morning — about 12 minutes after its first Facebook post about the situation.
Rashad Maleek Trice, 26, who was charged Friday in federal court in western Michigan with two kidnapping charges related to Wynter's kidnapping and death, admitted after his capture to an FBI agent Tuesday — among other things — that he was aware of the Amber Alert, according to court documents.
"Trice stated, words to the effect of 'I am already a monster,' " according to the federal court complaint.
It's difficult to say whether the Amber Alert proved effective, though it did disseminate information to the news media and the public about Wynter and Trice, seeking assistance in finding them.
Jordan Gulkis, Lansing Police spokesperson, said the department was appreciative of the Amber Alert and believes it helped, as Trice was located and arrested.
But the outcome for Wynter was obviously tragic.
Her body was found three days after her disappearance, in an alley on Detroit's east side, bringing devastation to family and friends, law enforcement and the public who searched for her, called in tips, or simply watched the story and prayed for her safe return.
Federal authorities said Friday that Wynter's cause of death appeared to be strangulation with a pink cellphone charging cord that was recovered with her body and was consistent with pink cord parts found in the car Trice had been driving.
Wynter was not Trice's biological child, according to the federal complaint, but he is the biological father of a 1-year-old son with Wynter's mother, Symari Cole,. The boy was found in the Lansing apartment where Trice is accused of stabbing his ex-girlfriend Cole and taking Wynter.
More: Suspect charged in kidnapping of 2-year-old Wynter Cole-Smith
Expert: Abductors and their intentions play big role in outcomes
Timothy Griffin, an associate professor at the University of Nevada, Reno, who has studied the Amber Alert system across the U.S. for years, said he had not heard Wynter's story, but the timespan from when Lansing Police responded to the stabbing call and the time the Amber Alert went out was typical and "actually pretty good. Sometimes, they don't even know about the crime until days after, until hours after."
"These cases are incredibly difficult to predict," Griffin said. "Law enforcement are put in an incredibly difficult situation."
Griffin said the Amber Alert system works as intended "maybe one-fifth of the time."
Griffin said who abducts a child and that person's intentions influence the outcome. Some situations, he said, unfortunately, can be hopeless from the start. But law enforcement can never know that in the moment.
"They want to win," he said. "They want to help these kids."
A study published in 2021, which Griffin authored with others after examining a sample of 472 Amber Alerts from 2012 to 2015, indicated "the crucial variable predicting Alert outcomes is abductor relationship to victim, not AMBER Alert 'performance,' " findings consistent with prior research examining Amber Alert effectiveness.
USA TODAY investigation: Amber Alerts rare
A USA TODAY investigation published in February indicated Amber Alerts across the country are extremely rare and, when used, it's unclear how much they help bring children home safely. The investigation analyzed data on Amber Alerts dating to 2017, following up with police on every alert issued across the country to gauge the outcome, as well as other reporting.
It found Amber Alerts are issued for a tiny fraction of missing child cases. In 2021, there were 254 Amber Alerts nationwide, according to an annual report from the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children.
But there were more than 337,000 missing child reports logged by local law enforcement with the FBI that year, according to the USA TODAY report. Police told USA TODAY that most children who receive Amber Alerts are found safe.
The USA Today investigation found from 2017 through 2021, Black children comprised 37% of missing children reports and nearly 37% of Amber Alerts, indicating alerts are issued proportionately. But reporters found the alerts were less likely to play a role in locating the children, according to the news report.
The USA TODAY report stated from January 2017 through June 2022 in Michigan, local law enforcement called in 86 requests for an Amber Alerts, and the state coordinator approved 19 of them.
There were no originating Amber Alert activations in Michigan last year, according to the 2022 Amber Alert report by the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children. There was one in Michigan in 2021 and five in the state in 2020, according to prior years' reports by the national center.
If a request for an Amber Alert from a local law enforcement agency to Michigan State Police doesn't meet specific criteria, it may not be approved. But State Police can provide different resources to assist in finding the child, including search and rescue or canine or aviation services, said First Lt. Mike Teachout, who has been the state's Amber Alert coordinator for about two months.
State Police First Lt. Mike Shaw, public information officer for the metro Detroit region, said there also could be investigative reasons why an alert isn't issued.
"We don’t want to cry wolf and have people ignore these," Teachout said of Amber Alerts.
More: Records shed light on suspect connected to deceased toddler Wynter Cole-Smith
More: Man accused in Wynter Cole-Smith death once threatened to kill her father, records say
Amber Alert history
The Amber Alert system began in 1996 and stands for America's Missing: Broadcast Emergency Response. It was inspired by 9-year-old Amber Hageman, who was kidnapped while riding her bicycle in Texas and later found murdered.
It’s used in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Indian country, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and more than two dozen other countries, according to the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children. It claims 1,140 children have been recovered since its inception because of Amber Alerts as of June 30 and that 136 are because of Wireless Emergency Alerts or WEA.
The Amber Alert plan in Michigan began in 2001 and is a partnership between law enforcement and the media to immediately disseminate information to the public about an abducted child using the Emergency Alert System. It expanded to freeway message signs in metro Detroit and Grand Rapids a year later, according to a 2002 Free Press article.
Michigan State Police is responsible for the system. Starting Jan. 1, 2017, State Police said, the system's criteria changed, and alerts would be issued only for cases of child abductions involving victims under age 18, but all Amber Alerts would receive WEA. A WEA is an emergency message sent by an authorized government alerting authority through mobile carriers. It looks like a text message, is no more than 90 characters and shows the type and time of the alert, any action you should take and the agency issuing the alert, according to the state.
There are three types of alerts — extreme weather and other area emergencies, Amber Alerts and Presidential alerts during a national emergency. People can opt out of receiving WEAs for imminent threats and Amber Alerts, but not Presidential messages, according to the state.
Before 2017, Amber Alerts were authorized for abducted children as well as missing children with severe mental or physical disabilities who wandered away and were unable to care for themselves. Then-State Police Col. Kriste Kibbey Etue said tightening the standards for issuing an Amber Alert would "ensure these alerts are utilized only in the most dire of circumstances to get credible, useful information out to the public in order to bring abducted children home safely."
Missing child cases that didn't meet the revised Amber Alert criteria were eligible for a new notification — the Endangered Missing Advisory — for which there is no age restriction. Unlike an Amber Alert, the advisory does not use the Emergency Alert System to interrupt broadcasting and is not sent to mobile devices.
More: 'Our Wynter': Detroiters vow to come together after killing of 2-year-old Wynter Cole-Smith
Amber Alert criteria
Each state's Amber Alert plan includes its own criteria for issuing alerts. A federal act passed in 2003 established an Amber Alert coordinator within the U.S. Department of Justice and calls on the department to issue minimum standards or guidelines for Amber Alerts that states can adopt, according to the department's Office of Justice Programs website.
It indicates state guidelines adhere closely to the handful of recommended guidelines, which are:
Reasonable belief by law enforcement an abduction occurred.
Law enforcement belief the child is in imminent danger of serious bodily injury or death.
Enough descriptive information about the victim and abduction, as well as the suspect and suspect vehicle, for law enforcement to issue an alert to help in the child's recovery.
The abducted child is age 17 or younger.
The child's name and other critical data elements, including the Child Abduction flag, have been entered into the National Crime Information Center system.
Teachout said the state stays in parallel with federal criteria. He said the key is the imminent risk of great bodily harm or death. Once State Police have all the information, it meets criteria, forms are filled out and boxes are checked, the alert goes out.
"The timely distribution of information is very, very important," Teachout said.
If a situation happens in the middle of the night, like with Wynter, authorities said they can't wait until business hours to put out information.
While people may not like waking up to the alert, Teachout said: "That’s somebody’s child. You want that information out there."
Shaw said many people work night shifts or start early for work; others are up because they can’t sleep. Teachout said truck drivers are out at all hours, and they are "always good sources of information."
"Why not put it out as soon as we have it?" he said of an Amber Alert.
Contact Christina Hall: chall@freepress.com. Follow her on Twitter: @challreporter.
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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Expert: Amber Alert cases 'incredibly difficult to predict'
