Expert: Keeping support of moderate Dems helped Lujan Grisham top Ronchetti

Nov. 10—Regardless of how much money he raised or how many campaign ads he aired on TV, Republican Mark Ronchetti faced a steep climb to clinch the race for governor.

Sure, the GOP thought the race was in play — one of the reasons millions of dollars were pumped into his campaign.

Even Democrats seemed to be worried: President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris flew into New Mexico to stump for Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, who was under constant attack on crime, education and the economy.

But the odds were against Ronchetti, a former TV weatherman who exceeded expectations when he ran for the U.S. Senate against Ben Ray Luján two years ago.

First, history was on Lujan Grisham's side.

All three of the state's incumbent governors before Lujan Grisham had won reelection with comfortable margins since 1994, which marked the first time in New Mexico a governor could run for two consecutive four-year terms.

Second, simple math.

Nearly half of the state's registered voters are Democrats; only a third are Republicans.

"The race starts with those two realities, that an incumbent governor has an advantage and that New Mexico is what it is," trusted pollster and political analyst Brian Sanderoff said Wednesday.

Lujan Grisham's 52 percent to 46 percent win over Ronchetti, as well as victories by every Democrat in statewide races, reaffirms New Mexico's continuing status as a blue-leaning state, he said.

"The way that Democrats lose elections is when too many Democrats cross over and vote Republican," Sanderoff said. "Only 31 percent of New Mexico's registered voters are Republican, so simple math tells you the only way Republicans can win is if they can pick up enough crossover Democrats."

Lujan Grisham had to hold onto moderate and conservative Democrats, and she appealed to them by touting legislation she had championed and signed, including tax rebates and a reduction of the Social Security income tax for most seniors. Although unsuccessful, Lujan Grisham also tried push through a bill to change pretrial detention policies that would give judges more flexibility to detain people charged with certain crimes until trial, as well as a bill to make New Mexico a hub of "blue hydrogen" production, which sparked opposition from environmental groups and progressive Democrats.

"You can tell she was trying to push through some positions that moderate Democrats and conservatives would support," Sanderoff said. "Even if you're not successful in changing the law on pretrial detention, the fact that you worked hard to accomplish it gets you some political points with the voters."

To be sure, Ronchetti, whose statewide name recognition after years on TV helped his campaign, made inroads with voters. When Lujan Grisham ran against former U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce, now chairman of the Republican Party of New Mexico, she won with about 100,000 votes. In her race against Ronchetti, she won with about 43,000 votes.

"He closed the gap, but he didn't close the deal," Sanderoff said.

When an incumbent is on the ballot, it's up to the challenger to demonstrate why he or she doesn't deserve to be reelected, he said.

Ronchetti hit Lujan Grisham on multiple fronts, from being soft on crime and releasing inmates from prison early to paying a former campaign staffer $150,000 to settle a sexual misconduct complaint.

"They tried a lot of different messages to try to persuade voters that she doesn't deserve a second bite at the apple," Sanderoff said. "They didn't stick."

Sanderoff said many believed the winning message for Ronchetti was crime, a big concern among New Mexicans who have seen a surge of lawlessness in recent years.

"Somehow it didn't work," he said.

Sanderoff said a "key ingredient" to the governor's success was her promise to protect abortion rights in New Mexico after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June.

Ronchetti took a hard-line approach during his U.S. Senate bid, when he advocated for a ban after 15 weeks of pregnancy except in cases or rape, incest and when a mother's life is at risk. During the campaign for governor, he tried to moderate that stance by proposing a constitutional amendment to let voters have a say on the matter. Lujan Grisham and others were unrelenting.

"The governor and her allies wouldn't acknowledge his moderation and instead reminded voters of his prior stances and alleged flip-flops," Sanderoff said. "It was like a double whammy for the Ronchetti campaign in that they were criticized for his former stances on abortion and the accusation of flip-flopping. I thought that hurt him, ultimately."

Sanderoff said he started to get the sense Democrats may have "overplayed" the abortion issue toward the end of the election cycle.

"But the proof's in the pudding," he said. "The governor won by a comfortable margin."

Sanderoff said he believes Ronchetti, who raised $9.3 million as of the last reporting period, ran a strong campaign.

"I thought he ran an aggressive campaign, which was necessary to try to take down an incumbent governor," he said. "He tried to use the fact that he wasn't a politician to his advantage."

The abortion issue, however, damaged that selling point when the pastor of a megachurch in Albuquerque shared during a televised sermon a private conversation he had with Ronchetti. The pastor, Steve Smothermon, said Ronchetti told him privately his more moderate stance was part of a ploy to get elected and that his end goal was to end abortion in New Mexico.

"It was probably the first and only time where he looked like a politician ... painted as someone who says one thing to Smothermon and another thing to the public," Sanderoff said.

Still, Sanderoff repeated, Ronchetti proved to be a formidable campaigner.

"I thought he ran a pretty good campaign, and I'm not sure what he could've done, given the fact that the governor also ran a great campaign," Sanderoff said. "It's a blue state. All the Democrats [running for statewide seats] swept into office as they did four years ago."

Follow Daniel J. Chacón on Twitter @danieljchacon.