Expert picks for Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes, one of the final Kentucky Derby prep races

The Road to the Kentucky Derby is just days away from ending, and one of the last critical races that will help set the 20-horse Derby field takes place this weekend in Lexington.

The 99th edition of the $1 million, Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass will be run Saturday at Keeneland Race Course as part of opening weekend of the 2023 Keeneland Spring Meet.

Post time for the Blue Grass is 5:15 p.m., and it’s set to be the ninth race of Keeneland’s Saturday schedule.

The race is one of the final four Kentucky Derby qualifying races still to be run this Derby prep season. Two others will also occur Saturday: the Wood Memorial (Aqueduct) and the Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita).

All three of Saturday’s qualifying races — the Wood Memorial, Blue Grass and Santa Anita — will award qualifying points to the top-five finishers on a 100-40-30-20-10 scale.

The 11-horse field for the Blue Grass (1 1/8 miles on dirt) was set on Wednesday and features the following horse, trainer and jockey combinations, from the rail out:

Tapit Trice (Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez), Clear the Air (William Walden, Ricardo Santana Jr.), Verifying (Brad Cox, Tyler Gaffalione), Classic Car Wash (Mark Casse, Javier Castellano), Hayes Strike (Kenny McPeek, James Graham), Scoobie Quando (Ben Colebrook, Luan Machado), Sun Thunder (McPeek, Florent Geroux), Blazing Sevens (Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz Jr.), Major Blue (D. Wayne Lukas, David Cabrera), Raise Cain (Colebrook, Joel Rosario), Mendelssohns March (McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr.)

Ahead of the Blue Grass, the Herald-Leader solicited expert opinions on the race, including the projected winner and the rationale behind the selection.

Here’s who you should be looking at for potential winning bets for the 99th running of the Blue Grass Stakes.

John Clay

Herald-Leader

Winner: Tapit Trice.

Comment: Todd Pletcher hasn’t hit the board in the Kentucky Derby since 2018. He’s back with vengeance this year thanks to Forte and Kingsbarns. Tapit Trice is the best colt in the Blue Grass and will give Pletcher a triple threat on Derby Day.

Cameron Drummond

Herald-Leader

Winner: Verifying.

Comment: In a lackluster Blue Grass field that is without a standout horse, consider buying (relatively) low on a horse that has harbored high expectations.

The son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify got stuck behind horses during his fourth-place finish last time out in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn.

If Verifying gets away clean from his No. 3 starting gate, there’s a decent chance he could provide trainer Brad Cox with a second Blue Grass win in three years, as well as race his way into the Kentucky Derby field.

Dan Issel

UK basketball great, ESPN 680 Louisville radio host

Winner: Verifying.

Comment: He was too close to a fast pace in a muddy running of the Rebel and should get a better trip this weekend. Plus, Brad Cox and Tyler Gaffalione are a great jockey-trainer combination.

Kevin Kilroy

Racing analyst at Fair Grounds, notes writer for the Kentucky Derby, TwinSpires edge tipper and writer

Winner: Mendelssohns March.

Comment: This is a serious racehorse that will offer a big price. He has overcome trip and track excuses to go 2-for-2, proving his versatility over turf and dirt, on the lead and off the pace.

At first glance, he looks bred for turf, but the sire and dam have produced strong dirt route runners, including half-sibling Mr. Big News, who finished third in the 2020 Kentucky Derby.

Louie Rabaut

Horse Racing Happy Hour Podcast and Green Sheet Racing, ESPN 680 Louisville radio host

Winner: Mendelssohns March.

Comment: He won via disqualification his first time out on turf, and came back and won on slop against winners. Watching replays matters, and he took a ton of mud in getting to 2-for-2. I think Kenny McPeek is tipping his hand by having Brian Hernandez Jr. in the irons. Love the 20-1 (morning-line) number on him.

Ben Roberts

Herald-Leader

Winner: Mendelssohns March.

Comment: You don’t have to look too hard to find significant knocks on any of the favorites in this field, and while Tapit Trice is certainly the one to beat on paper, his last win left plenty of questions and that inside post won’t do him any favors. So, in a race with no true standouts, why not take a chance on a possible up-and-coming long shot?

This colt out of the barn of Lexington native Kenny McPeek has a largely turf-leaning pedigree, but there looks to be enough there to make a splash in what should be his first start over a fast track. Mendelssohns March won his debut via disqualification on turf in February before winning on a sloppy track at Oaklawn last month.

Sure, it might be too much too soon for the least-seasoned starter in this group, but it’s worth taking a shot in a race that could go a few different ways.

Guide to Saturday’s $1 million 2023 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland

Five questions to be answered in Saturday’s Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland

The field is set for the 99th Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. See the full field with odds.

Kentucky Derby Watch 2023: Forte emerges as clear favorite with race now a month away

Riders up: What to know as the 2023 Spring Meet gets underway at Keeneland