Expert Picks: RBC Heritage

Josh Culp
Fantasy selections for this week's RBC Heritage.

"Welcome to Playing the Tips! 

Each week this will be the one-stop resource to soak in all the picks from our fantasy staffers at Rotoworld.com. 

Page 1 is going to look at Daily Fantasy Sports picks (FanDuel, Yahoo, and DraftKings).

Page 2 will have a look at One-and-Done options as well as PGATOUR.com's fantasy game. 
 

Daily Fantasy Sports [DFS]

I will be giving out selections for one team for each DFS site, per week. 

These lineups will be entered into a large-entry Guaranteed Prize Pool. That means we need to take a risk or two, in order to separate ourselves from the field. 

The idea is to provide you a list of names to consider. I would not recommend copying these teams, golfer for golfer. Duplicate teams are no fun and don't help anyone. 

FanDuel Picks:

Dustin Johnson (12,400): Joined Team RBC last year and finished T16 in his return to Harbour Town. He claims he actually likes the course so I'm ready to invest, despite the course taking the driver out of his hands more than usual. 

Matt Kuchar (11,500): Right up there with Luke Donald as the course horse at Harbour Town. Unlike Donald, Kuchar has a win here (2014) and he already has two wins this season. 

Tommy Fleetwood (11,300): Making his course debut but it should be a natural fit. His confidence with the driver should allow him to be aggressive in spots with the big stick where others might be laying back. 

Adam Schenk (7,900): Early in his career he's shown the ability to handle windy conditions. That should serve him well this week, given the gusty forecast. 

Rory Sabbatini (8,100): He was the first-round leader here last year. Has six top 25s in nine tries at Harbour Town. 

Brian Gay (8,100): We have 8800 left to work with but an important thing to remember is that salaries are just a max. You don't HAVE to spend all your dough. If FanDuel happened to price Gay at 8,700 instead of 8,100 this week, it wouldn't make him any better of a play. So, I'll with this past champ who won here in 2009. 

 

DraftKings Picks -- @futureoffantasy

Marc Leishman (8,000): Absolutely loves him some windy conditions. Has only one finish better than T30 in nine tries here but I like his chances to pick up a top 25 this week. 

Rafa Cabrera Bello (7,600): Missed the cut in his debut last year. Not a good start to this lineup if you are leaning on course history. However, based on pure talent alone, he deserves to be in the high 8Ks so this is a value price. 

Sungjae Im (8,400): Top 20s in four of his last five starts. Continues to crush it on courses he's not familiar with. 

Zach Johnson (7,500): Middling form with no top 20s since the fall. Still trying to gel with the new caddie perhaps? Similar to Leishman, has a suprisingly low number of high finishes at Harbour Town but on paper it should be a pretty good course for him. He's finished 6th or better in 2-of-13 Heritage starts but outside the top 30 in all of the other 11. All we really need at this price is a cut made. 

Tommy Fleetwood (9,200): Ranks 1st in the field this week when it comes to the percentage of rounds where a golfer beats the field average in DraftKings Scoring. 

Webb Simpson (9,300): Finally some course history to wrap up this team. Simpson is 8-for-9 at the Heritage with five top 15s. 

 

DraftKings Picks -- @DaveTindallGolf

Jim Furyk ($9,400) – Two wins and two seconds here and right back to form including runner-up on another Dye creation, TPC Sawgrass. I also like the old-guy angle. If Tiger can win the Masters, Furyk will have no doubt he can win this.

Kevin Kisner ($9,100) – Like Furyk, a course horse. That played out well for him at Austin CC where he followed up second place in 2018 with a win in this year's WCG-Match Play and T21 at Augusta National was a decent way to follow up. This course is far more up his street.  

Ryan Moore ($8,100) – Past winner on a classical Sedgefield and prefers a strategic test of brain over brawn. Nice title charge and eventual top three in Texas last time and will be fresh after missing Masters.

Byeong Hun An ($8,200) – Finished tied seventh here 12 months ago despite starting with 73 and returns on the back of another T7, this one in Texas. Like Moore, skipping the intensity of Masters week will give him added mental freshness.

Aaron Baddeley ($7,600) – A shot-maker who scrambles well and that's the deal here. No surprise then that the Aussie has a win, a second and a recent T9 here. Playing nicely again.

Graeme McDowell ($7,500) – Getting another former winner on my team. Added another victory at the Corales Puntacana last month and followed it with T7 in Texas. And yet, he's still not booked a place in the Open Championship on home turf so huge incentive still there.

Total salary: $49,900

On the cusp: Webb Simpson ($9,300), Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,500), Sungjae Im ($8,400), Cameron Smith ($7,900), Russell Knox ($7,700), Jonathan Byrd ($6,800).

 

DraftKings Picks -- @MattCooperGolf

Kevin Kisner ($9,100) – A winner two starts out, a solid performance last week at Augusta without burning himself out and adores the course. Could easily atone for the 2015 play-off defeat this week.

Jim Furyk ($9,400) – It’s not just the fact that this course specialist has thrived at times this season, but where. Top 20s at El Camaleon, PGA National and Innisbrook.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,500) – The Englishman really likes playing this track and he cut an interesting figure last week, having played three fine rounds (of 11-under) yet kicked it all off with a hope-flattening 78.

Justin Harding ($7,900) – Another who played well last week whilst flying a little under the radar (did anyone see more than two shots of him at the weekend?) Owns a superb scrambling game (15th Club had him ranked best in the field ahead of Augusta in SG: Around the Greens worldwide).

Patton Kizzire ($6,700) – Was fourth after 36 and 54 holes on debut here three years ago, is a winner at Waialae and El Camaleon, and played nicely last week in the Masters.

Ernie Els ($6,300) – Back in the day he ranked up seven top 20s and was T14 three years ago. Playing well this week and a good hope-to-salary ratio.

Total salary: $47,900

On the cusp: ($7,100), Brian Stuard ($6,700), Brian Gay ($6,700), Stewart Cink ($6,400), Hudson Swafford ($6,600), Ryan Armour ($6,300)

 

Yahoo Picks: 

Dustin Johnson (50): Might get underclicked this week due to the seemingly poor fit. That being said, he should have plenty of short irons and wedges in hand this week. Should be right in the mix as long as he avoids the big number. 

Bryson DeChambeau (47): "This course just fits my eye. The shaping of the holes and just a couple of the doglegs, I'm able to shape shots." 

Brian Gay (25): The short-game specialist is making his 19th appearance at this event. He won in 2009 and has two other top 10s to his credit. All we really need for this price is a top 40 type finish. 

Rory Sabbatini (20): Enjoys these shorter courses where distance isn't required. Has backed that up with six finishes of T23 or better in nine Heritage starts. 

Joel Dahmen (26): He's hit more fairways than the field in 17 of his last 22 starts. That kind of fairway-finding mentality should serve him well at Harbour Town Golf Links. 

Ryan Moore (30): He's really rounding into form lately. He's gained strokes over the field in 73% of his rounds over the last 3 months which ranks 7th in the field over that time frame. Ride the hot hand on a course that should suit him well. 

 

One-and-Done

Each week I will think out loud about my process in determining my One-and-Done selection. If you are new to the One-and-Done format, it is like an NFL survivor league. You pick one golfer per week, but you can't use them again all year. 

To start things off we will have a look at weighted tournament history over the Last 10 years: 

Luke Donald (10-for-13 with five RUNNER-UPs)
Matt Kuchar (14-for-15 with a win and eight other top 25s)
Russell Knox (5-for-5 with four top 20s)
Webb Simpson (8-for-9 with five top 15s)
Kevin Kisner (5-for-6 with three T11 or better)
Ian Poulter (8-for-8 with three top 20s)
Branden Grace (T7, WIN, T11)
Patrick Cantlay (T3, T7)
Brandt Snedeker (10-for-13 with five top 25s including WIN)
Si Woo Kim (T14, RUNNER-UP)
Bill Haas (7-for-13 with two top 15s)
Bryson DeChambeau (T4, MC, T3)
Brian Harman (6-for-9 with two top 10s)
Luke List (WD, T39, MC, T3)
Jim Furyk (15-for-19 with two wins and two runner-ups)

After history, we can look at baseline performance over the last year. This will give us a good feel for who should pop regardless of past course results: 

Dustin Johnson
Bryson DeChambeau
Patrick Cantlay
Webb Simpson
Francesco Molinari
Tommy Fleetwood
Xander Schauffele
Matt Kuchar
Marc Leishman
Charles Howell III
Ian Poulter
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Lucas Glover
Billy Horschel
Jim Furyk

Looking for an overlap list we see a few names pop up: Matt Kuchar, Ian Poulter, Webb Simpson, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, and Jim Furyk

It's always tempting to switch up the strategy after a missing cut like I had last week (Rose) but it's important to stick to the process. 

If there weren't' any OAD restrictions on the names above I would rank them Bryson, Webb, Kuchar, Cantlay, Poulter, and then Furyk. 

However, I've already used Webb, Kuchar, and Bryson. 

That leaves me with Cantlay (T3 and T7 in two Heritage starts) or Poulter (three top 20s in 8 Heritage starts), or Furyk (two wins and two runner-ups in 19 Heritage starts). 

My gut tells me I should skip Cantlay and go with the experience (Furyk) because Cantlay played his way into contention on Sunday at the Masters. He may have a bit of a letdown after that Sunday high. Instead, I'm going to stick to the process. Stick to the numbers, and they say my pick will be Patrick Cantlay this week. 
 

PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO

Josh Culp 

“@FutureOfFantasy”

Last Week Rank: 18791
Season Rank: 438

Starters: 

Bryson DeChambeau
Webb Simpson
Tommy Fleetwood
Marc Leishman

Bench: 

Patrick Cantlay
Matt Kuchar

Mo Yoshimoto 

“@BearsGolf3423” 

Last Week: 25383
Season Rank: 6130

Starters:

Kevin Kisner
Ian Poulter
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Patrick Cantlay

 

Bench:

Dustin Johnson
Si Woo Kim