Expert: Ukraine's top 2024 goal is to cut land corridor to Crimea to prevent Russian-dictated peace in 2025
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Military expert Mykhailo Samus during an interview with NV on Nov. 30 outlined what Ukrainian forces must achieve this year in order to avoid the war being frozen on Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's terms in 2025
There are two options for the development of events at the front in 2024, Samus said.
Read also: ISW analysts confirm ongoing Russian advances around front-line town of Avdiivka
"The first is for the Ukrainian army to conduct a key operation in the south, that is, to cut the land corridor," the military analyst said.
“It could be through the Tokmak direction (in Zaporizhzhya Oblast) together with the east bank of Kherson Oblast, or even (just) the east bank of Kherson Oblast (where there is) access to Crimea.”
This would lead to a strategic change in the war, and the liberation of other territories, i.e. the de-occupation of Crimea and Donbas, would be only a matter of time, as well as free up a significant amount of forces, Samus said.
"If during 2024 the Ukrainian army manages to cut the land corridor or to go through the left (east) bank of Kherson Oblast to Crimea, in 2025 we can hope to conduct successful operations, or start successful operations," he said.
“And in these conditions, even the election of (Donald) Trump (in next year's U.S. presidential election) will not have any such catastrophic significance, because he will support Ukraine, no matter how paradoxical it may sound. He does not like losers, and Putin will be the loser in this case.”
If Ukrainian forces fail to cut the land corridor to Crimea in 2024, and "Russia manages to hold the south and make certain moves in eastern Ukraine, in the Donbas," this will create the opposite situation, in which Putin will be able to offer Trump, if elected, a peacekeeping role in ending the "Russo-Ukrainian conflict."
"That is, he will agree to Putin's proposal: to freeze the conflict, stop helping Ukraine, and force Ukraine to sign something like Minsk-3, which will lay out Russia's demands," Samus said.
Read also: Putin’s plan for the rest of the war
“That is, a neutral status for Ukraine, not joining NATO and the EU, and leaving the territories that are currently occupied under Russian control. And, of course, not recognizing Putin as a war criminal and (Moscow) paying voluntary compensation, not reparations. That is, Russia will participate in assessing the damage caused during the war together with the United States and European countries. And Russia will pay, that is, participate in the restoration.”
Earlier, a former company commander of the Aidar battalion, Yevhen Dykyi, said in an interview with Radio NV that the Russians plan to defeat Ukraine in 2025, hoping that Donald Trump will win the U.S. election and cut off the supply of weapons, equipment, and ammunition to Ukraine.
Earlier, Anton Drobovych, director of the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory and a soldier in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said in an interview with NV that Ukrainians would not be able to win the war without allies.
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