Expert warns of unpredictable fallout if Russia were to use space rocket against Ukraine

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political observer at the Information Resistance group, during an interview with NV on Oct. 28 commented on the proposal of former Roscosmos head Dmitry Rogozin to strike Ukraine with a weapon carried by a space rocket.

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Earlier this week, the German tabloid Bild reported, citing its own sources, that Rogozin had suggested to Russian President Vladimir Putin that Russia should use a space rocket to strike Ukraine. In support of this, the tabloid cites recordings of conversations between Rogozin and Dmitry Baranov, CEO of the Progress Rocket Space Center, where they allegedly discuss the technical details of organizing a strike on a major Ukrainian city using a launch vehicle designed for spaceflight.

NV asked Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political observer at the Information Resistance group, to analyze the possibility of Russia using such a missile, and assess whether Ukraine would be able to intercept it.

NV: There was information that the former head of Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, had proposed to strike a large Ukrainian city with a space rocket. How would you comment on this? To what extent is this technically possible?

O.K.: How can I comment on this? Dmitry Rogozin is an imbecile. Because in fact, utilizing a space launch vehicle for such an uncharacteristic use is irrational, both economically and practically.

The fact is that Rogozin has no understanding of either military equipment or the space industry. Everyone saw this when he was the head of Roscosmos (in 2018-2022).

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He is knowledgeable only in two areas. The first is Russian neo-Nazism, and he is a Russian neo-Nazi who has reached the top of the government. And the second is that he is a corrupt official. And this is exactly what he has been doing all these years.

A launch vehicle like the Soyuz is much more expensive, much heavier, and much larger (than any other rocket). It has a limited number of sites from which it can be launched. And it is not configured to deliver precision strikes. But in terms of the power of the warhead, which (theoretically) can carry up to 10 tons, it is commensurate with tactical nuclear weapons.

Thus, in terms of financial, technical, and other parameters, the use of a space rocket is not even comparable to the use of, say, an Iskander missile with a nuclear warhead at the level of a tactical weapon.

Therefore, this is balderdash that makes no sense to talk about.

NV: In this case, what is the purpose of Rogozin's proposal? What does it mean?

O.K.: It's simply to remind (everyone of his existence). Where is Rogozin now? Do we hear much about him? Everyone has almost forgotten about him. The last time he was mentioned was when he was injured (in December 2022 in Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Donetsk) in a rather interesting (part of his body).

That's why, in my opinion, after he was kicked out of Roscosmos, he is constantly trying to remind us of himself somehow. As if he can generate some smart ideas. But he can't!

NV: Has anyone in the world ever conducted such tests?

O.K.: No one had ever thought of such a stupid idea. Rogozin is probably the first.

NV: Can Russia still try to implement this idea or at least bear it in mind?

O.K.: No. Even such an irrational Russia would not bear such an idea in mind.

NV: And how should Ukraine and the world respond to such irrational and criminal proposals voiced by Rogozin? Should we ignore them?

O.K: I don't think we should ignore it. Because, on the one hand, we understand that such a scenario will not be used. On the other hand, it emphasizes that even at the highest level of power, a person like Rogozin generates ideas that are fully correlated with genocide. This is genocide of the population.

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Let's imagine that such a rocket with 10 tons of explosives falls on a peaceful city. This is the destruction of at least an entire neighborhood with civilians. This is an element of genocide: the indiscriminate destruction of civilians. And these ideas are being generated by a man who was accepted as an equal at various international forums and other events a few years ago.

There have been warnings that Russia is turning into a neo-Nazi state, and we see now that these sick neo-Nazi ideas, ideas about genocide, about the destruction of one nation by another, are pulsating and constantly being generated (in Russia). So the international community, our partners, should pay attention to this, and step up their assistance to Ukraine. Because Ukraine can face anything – not a Soyuz rocket with a warhead, of course – but other challenges that are more rational and logical, but no less dangerous.

NV: And what is the likelihood that instead of a space rocket, Russia, out of desperation, will decide to use an intercontinental ballistic missile in the war? Even if it has a conventional, non-nuclear warhead.

O.K.: This is also not an option (for Russia). The fact is that the use of an intercontinental ballistic missile, even with a conventional warhead, without a nuclear component, is still illogical and irrational. It is expensive because other means can be used.

Let's imagine that the Russians used an intercontinental ballistic missile. As a result, they hit a city with a civilian population, which is terror and genocide. It's like a nuclear strike on such a city. And since no one in the world has ever done this before, it will shock the international community, and the reaction to such actions can be completely unpredictable, as well as the impact on Russia itself. Therefore, this could result in quite unpredictable consequences for Russia.

NV: Can such missiles be shot down at all?

O.K.: Yes, they can be shot down by the (U.S.) Patriot anti-aircraft missile system (which has been in service with Ukraine since 2023).

NV: Are there any deterrents or treaties governing intercontinental missile launches?

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O.K.: Today, Russia has withdrawn from almost all such treaties and agreements. Nothing restrains Russia now, it is not regulated by any international law. It is a pariah state that does not recognize any law.

NV: Could Russia's launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile lead to the involvement of nuclear powers, such as the United States, in a war?

O.K.: I do not rule out that this is quite possible. One way or another, the United States will be involved in some format. Because it will be a war of a completely different level, the destruction of a nation of a completely different level. And if now the United States is slowly but surely recognizing that genocide is taking place now, as it did during World War II, then such actions (Russia's use of an intercontinental ballistic missile) will simply convince them of it.

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Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine