The U.S. economy is expected to enter a recession in 2023, but a leading financial expert from the University of Georgia predicted on Wednesday that Athens will fare better than the state or nation.

“We don’t expect Athens to fully dodge the recession, but we do expect Athens to fare much better than the nation and the state,” said Jeff Humphreys, director of the Selig Center for Economic Growth in the UGA Terry College of Business.

The economy in Athens is expected to grow in 2023, he told a gathering of about 500 people attending the 40^th Georgia Economic Outlook event held at The Classic Center in Athens.

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“I think we can call it a slow-session rather than a recession,” Humphreys said about the impact on Athens.

Also speaking was Terry Business School Dean Benjamin Ayers, who spoke on economic conditions facing the state as whole. He predicted the state will not face many job losses during the recession.

"Employers went to great lengths to hire enough workers in the wake of the pandemic and know that workers will be in short supply on the other side of the recession," Ayers said.

The Athens economy doesn’t depend too heavily on manufacturing or exports as much of the nation, according to Humphries, who noted recent additions of new employers in the Athens including a film studio that he said would help in the fast-paced growth of the film industry.

He also pointed to UGA as a major factor in the city's economic conditions due to its growing student enrollment and the highly-educated workforce.

Athens’ proximity to Atlanta is another positive factor in its economy, according to Humphries, who said Athens is also experiencing an above average population growth for the state.

In addition, Humphries said Athens remains a desirable retirement destination, which he said today is higher than it was prior to the pandemic.

“Our main economic advantage in 2023 will be the University of Georgia,” he said.

Another factor in the city’s growth are the national championships won by the university’s football team, according to Humphries.

“UGA events will bring more dollars into Athens in 2023 than in 2022 and earlier years,” he said.

Athens also is better protected from troubles in real estate and homebuilding.

Housing related employment accounts four about seven of every 100 jobs in Athens, while nationally housing-related employment is about 10 of every 100 jobs, according to Humphries.

“That is good news because the housing industry is in recession,” he said. “... We’re not nearly as exposed on the ups and downs of real estate development and homebuilding as the nation or state."

He expects the multi-unit market in Athens to fare better than the single-family market.

“Basically, UGA doesn’t have enough on-campus student housing and with the enrollment growing that creates a lot of demand,” he said.

Humphries also spoke on the spike in housing prices that occurred after the pandemic set in.

"Nationally, and here in Athens, over evaluation is substantial," he said, adding these high prices "occurred very recently and very, very quickly."

"In the second quarter of 2022, the price of existing homes in Athens were about 49 percent higher than they were just before the pandemic and the end of 2019," he said, adding he expected single-family home prices to drop by about 12 percent in 2023.

This article originally appeared on Athens Banner-Herald: UGA financial experts believe Athens will fare well in a recession