Experts: Fetterman's health unlikely to impact the Pa. Senate race

Oct. 24—Tuesday night's debate between Democratic Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz will be the first and only meeting of the two candidates before the Nov. 8 election.

Its outcome could go a long way in deciding who wins a seat that political pundits say could determine control of the U.S. Senate.

While experts say Fetterman's health remains under scrutiny following a stroke in April, it ultimately may not have much of an impact for voters.

"I would imagine people have already made up their minds and it won't affect it very much," said Richard Scotch, a sociology and political policy professor at the University of Texas at Dallas.

Scotch has researched the impact of disabilities on political candidates and said there are few examples where health concerns affected a campaign.

"There may be a few voters who will be affected," he said, "but I don't see it as a problem even though there may be a lot of people who talk about it in the media."

Fetterman's health came into the spotlight just days before the Democratic primary in April when he suffered a stroke. It left him hospitalized and off the campaign trail. He returned in earnest this fall. His campaign maintains Fetterman has no lingering cognitive deficits as a result of the stroke, but he continues to experience what he called auditory processing issues that require him to use a closed-captioning device to respond to real-time questioning. He plans to use the device in Tuesday's debate.

Fetterman's campaign released a letter this week from his doctor that cleared him for full-time work. The letter said Fetterman is healthy while still experiencing minor symptoms from the stroke.

"As we've said over and over again, John is healthy and fit to serve, and he also still has a lingering auditory processing issue from the stroke," Fetterman spokesman Joe Calvello said. "John has already released two different letters from his doctors, one from his cardiologist and one from his primary care physician, both saying he is fit to serve, and also put out a candid letter directly from himself about his stroke. John has been transparent in talking openly about his health with local and national media, while also showing voters how closed-caption technology helps him communicate more effectively."

Fetterman's opponent, Oz, has suggested Fetterman has not been truthful about his health and questioned his fitness to serve in office.

The Oz campaign did not respond to a request for comment from the Tribune-Review.

Experts say, despite increased talk from the candidates and a bevy of political ads that focused on Fetterman's health in the weeks leading up to the election, past history and current polling suggest it's not at the top of the list of issues voters will consider next month.

Berwood Yost, director of opinion and research at Franklin & Marshall College in Lebanon County, said polling indicates the candidate's health has not been a concern for voters in the highly competitive Senate race, where Fetterman holds a small lead over Oz.

"We'll look to see how he performs in the debate, but unless there is a major issue, I suspect it will be pretty down the list people will care about," Yost said.

Polling has found voters focus more on policy differences. Yost said polling has shown that about 47% of adults have some chronic conditions, and, once voters turn 65, that number rises to about 80%. Because a majority of the electorate is dealing with health issues, there is likely a lack of concern about how a political candidate's own struggles can affect the outcome of an election, he said.

Discussion about Fetterman's health increased in recent weeks following a national television interview in which Fetterman described his use of a captioning device.

Despite that attention, Yost said, polling has indicated voters aren't concerned about Fetterman's health.

"In my model, I don't think it's turning the race," Yost said.

Oz closed the polling margins this fall after attacks on Fetterman's position on crime and policing became a central part of the campaign, according to Yost. He expects political issues and not health will decide the race.

Lisa Schur and Doug Kruse, co-directors for the program of disability research at Rutgers University, said there is a long history of candidates with disabilities being elected to public office, including in recent years Gregg Abbott, who uses a wheelchair and was elected governor in Texas. Abbott is running for reelection this fall.

Maybe the closest comparison to Fetterman's situation is the reelection in 2008 of U.S. Sen. Tim Johnson, a South Dakota Democrat who suffered a stroke in 2007.

"He won quite easily," Kruse said.

Johnson retired after completing his third term in 2015.

Schur and Kruse pointed to a study conducted in 2021 in the United States and England that asked voters whether they were impacted by a candidate's disabilities.

"There was not a general effect. On average, it wasn't a true up or down," Kruse said.

In Pennsylvania's Senate race, Schur said other issues are likely to have more of an impact on the outcome.

"This election might be more focused on what policies (Fetterman) is advocating, and that's kind of the goal," Schur said.

Rich Cholodofsky is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can contact Rich by email at rcholodofsky@triblive.com or via Twitter .