Fact check: Flu activity is low so far, likely because of pandemic precautions

Adrienne Dunn, USA TODAY
·5 min read

The claim: Normally, the flu would be surging with thousands of cases and deaths. 'This year is all COVID.'

The coronavirus, which has now claimed the lives of more than 300,000 Americans, has been the subject of vast misinformation — propped up by prominent public officials, including President Donald Trump — since the outbreak began.

One of the most commonfalse claims about the novel coronavirus is that it is no more dangerous than the seasonal flu. Another is that COVID-19 has taken the place of the flu.

A Dec. 4 post from the Facebook page REAL Farmacy shared a screenshot of a same-day Twitter post from Dr. David Samadi — a urologist and outspoken denier of the severity of the coronavirus — that reads, "Normally this time of year there would be a huge surge of flu cases in thousands and 60,000 deaths. This year it is all COVID-19."

USA TODAY reached out to the page and to Samadi for comment.

More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the COVID-19 vaccine

How does COVID-19 compare to flu?

Due to some similarity in symptoms, the coronavirus is often compared to the flu. But the coronavirus is much more deadly than seasonal influenza, which is typically most active in the cold months of the year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

USA TODAY already has debunked multiple claims asserting that different flu seasons and strains were deadlier than the COVID-19 pandemic. These fact-checks have determined that COVID-19 is deadlier than the 2018-2019 flu season, the 1918 Spanish flu and the 2009 swine flu pandemic.

Preliminary data from the CDC estimates that during the 2019-2020 season, the flu caused 22,000 deaths. However, this data is not final, and full estimates range from 24,000 to 62,000 deaths. Data from the CDC shows that more than 300 Americans so far have died from the flu since mid-May.

By comparison, the coronavirus has killed more than 300,000 Americans in less than a year, with spikes in both the summer and winter months.

More: Fact check: Thalidomide, COVID-19 vaccine comparisons are misleading

How flu deaths are determined

The CDC uses a mathematical model to estimate the burden of the flu, or the number of illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths.

Researchers first look at how many in-hospital deaths were observed in FlusURV-net, or the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network, which the CDC says is a "population-based surveillance system that collects data on laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations among children and adults through a network of acute care hospitals in 14 states." Then, because not all flu deaths happen in the hospital, they use death certificate data to estimate how likely it is for deaths to occur outside of hospitals. That means deaths typically are added over time.

The social media post in question states the nation should be seeing a surge of flu cases along with 60,000 flu deaths. However, according to data from the CDC, the only flu season since 2010 that saw near 60,000 deaths was 2017-2018, which had 61,000 estimated deaths. The next closest was 2014-2015, with 51,000 deaths.

This year's available flu data can be found in the CDC's Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report. While it is relatively early in the flu season — tracking started on Sept. 27 — rates have remained lower than usual; however, they are not at zero, as alleged by Donald Trump Jr. in an Oct. 26 tweet, which USA TODAY also debunked.

More: Fact check: Syringes with RFID technology track vaccines, not recipients

The pandemic likely the reason for fewer flu cases

While some people may avoid seeking health care, which reduces the identification of positive cases, the weekly flu report notes COVID-19's potential influence and has a disclaimer that warns the data should be interpreted with caution for this reason.

"Cold and flu, COVID-19 — they're all respiratory viruses. There are nuances between them, but basically they are all transmitted in the same way," said infectious disease expert Dr. William Schaffner of Vanderbilt University in an interview with Healthline.

The same safety protocols advised for COVID-19, such as handwashing, mask wearing and staying at home, are thus also applicable to the flu, according to the CDC.

An uptick in vaccination may be another factor. The CDC stated that as of Dec. 4, 189.4 million flu vaccine doses were distributed throughout the nation, the highest ever recorded during a single influenza season. Flu vaccination among adults increased 46% — from 31.1 million administered in 2019 to 45.3 million as of Nov. 28. It is unclear, however, whether this trend represents an actual increase or whether more people are going to pharmacies to get vaccinated due to convenience and accessibility.

Our ruling: Missing context

The claim in the post is rated as MISSING CONTEXT. This year has fewer flu cases than normal, but it is not "all COVID." The coronavirus pandemic likely is contributing to lower rates The restrictions put in place to reduce the spread of the coronavirus, as well as public health messages reminding people to get a flu shot, are likely reducing the spread.

Additionally, there are not 60,000 flu deaths annually in the United States. According to data reported by the CDC, since the 2010 season the number of annual flu deaths varies and the average sits around 30,000. Preliminary numbers show hundreds of deaths so far this flu season, though that likely will increase.

Our fact check sources:

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Contributing: Miriam Fauzia, USA TODAY, and Mariah Tims, The Tennessean

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fact check: Flu activity is low, likely due to pandemic precautions