Fact check: Maricopa County 'heat map' is unrelated to malfunctioning voting tabulators

Hannah Hudnall, USA TODAY
·4 min read
21

The claim: Maricopa County posted GOP voter 'heat map,' then 84% of voting machine problems were in GOP areas

The 2022 midterm elections continue to spark baseless assertions of fraud in the battleground state of Arizona. Some social media users, for example, claim a map of Republican voters in Maricopa County, displayed at its central tabulation facility in Phoenix, is a sign of foul play.

"Maricopa County Kept a GOP Heat Map of Expected Voters Hanging on Their Wall," reads the headline of a Dec. 12 Gateway Pundit article. "Then 84 PERCENT of Voting Centers with Machine Problems on Election Day were in DEEP RED DISTRICTS!"

The article features a picture of a map of Maricopa County with some areas highlighted in shades of red.

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Similar versions of the claim have been shared on Twitter and Facebook.

But the heat map – a map overlaid with color to represent data – displayed on the wall is not evidence of anything nefarious. The data from the maps is used to determine where to set up future voting locations. The Maricopa County Elections Department has a heat map for Republican voters, but it has one Democratic voters and total voters as well, a department spokesperson said.

Moreover, the precincts affected by printing errors during the midterm elections were not overwhelmingly Republican, contrary to the claim in the social media post. A Washington Post analysis actually found the affected areas leaned heavily Democratic.

USA TODAY reached out to the social media user who shared the claim for comment.

Heat map is not proof of election fraud

Megan Gilbertson, a Maricopa County elections spokesperson, told USA TODAY in an email that the department uses heat maps showing past voter turnout for both parties to determine where future voting locations should be.

"The Maricopa County Recorder’s Office has a ... team that makes all of the maps in-house," Gilbertson said. "We use the turnout data by party for elections such as the Presidential Preference Election, which is a party-only election. We use the all-voter maps for future planning for Primary and General elections."

Gilbertson said the department has in-person voter turnout maps for Democrats, Republicans and total voters posted together in the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center hallway. She emailed USA TODAY a picture of the three maps.

Printing malfunctions primarily affected Democratic voters

Though printers at 70 polling locations in Maricopa County malfunctioned, Gilbertson said those voters were able to cast votes at any other location.

"Voters could choose from any of the 223 sites on Election Day, rather than being assigned to one polling location within their precinct," Gilbertson said.

At a Nov. 28 board supervisors meeting, Maricopa County Election Director Scott Jarrett said the printing issue was not specific to any region or political party. The issue occurred in locations with a specific type of printer, the Oki B432.

Fact check: Printing glitches caused temporary vote-counting halt in Arizona

A Washington Post analysis of election data found that about 37% of registered voters in the affected precincts were Republican. This percentage is virtually the same as the percentage of Republicans countywide, according to the analysis.

Meanwhile, the Post found that heavily Democratic precincts were affected by printer issues as well, including in east and south Phoenix, where the share of Democrats is about 40 percentage points higher than that of Republicans.

This claim has been debunked by Reuters and the Associated Press as well.

Our rating: Partly false

Based on our research, we rate PARTLY FALSE the claim that Maricopa County posted a GOP voter "heat map," then 84% of voting machine problems were in GOP areas. The agency did post a GOP heat map, but this article is misleading because the map was posted alongside maps showing Democratic turnout and total voter turnout. And the 84% figure is flat wrong: A Washington Post analysis found 37% of voters in the affected precincts were registered as Republicans.

Our fact-check sources:

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fact check: Maricopa County 'heat map' unrelated to failing tabulators