Fact check: Post falsely links military vote count in Wisconsin to election tampering

Sudiksha Kochi, USA TODAY
·4 min read
23

The claim: A decrease in active military votes in Wisconsin shows election tampering

Some social media users are continuing to spread baseless assertions about election fraud in the 2022 midterm elections.

"Wisconsin has found that active military votes decreased from 9,876 in 2020 to 1,573 in 2022. Weird. Why were there so many in 2020?" reads a Nov. 29 Facebook post (direct link, archived link). "BTW, these ballots are the only votes in WI that do not require ID to be cast. In 2018, the last midterm, there were 4,966."

"Hmmmmm nothing to see here folks," says the post's caption. "Only STUPID believe there was no election tampering."

The claim echoed a press release issued by Wisconsin state Rep. Janel Brandtjen, who has often promoted false claims about the 2020 election.Other posts with similar claims have generated thousands of likes on Instagram.

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But the claim is ridiculous and based on a deeply flawed attempt to analyze election data.

The figures in the post compare data from a 2022 midterm primary to a 2020 general presidential election and a 2018 midterm general election.

Comparing the figures is nonsense since there are drastic turnout differences between the elections, according to a Wisconsin election expert.

The opposite of this claim is actually true, as active military participation increased in Wisconsin between the two comparable elections – the 2018 midterm primary and the 2022 midterm primary.

USA TODAY reached out to the social media user who shared the claim for comment.

Comparison between figures in post is not valid

Brandtjen, who shared a press release with the same figures shown in the post, told USA TODAY she calculated the figures using data from a Nov. 21 document the Wisconsin Elections Commission provided to the Wisconsin Center for Election Justice upon request.

The document, obtained by USA TODAY, shows election participation data – ballots cast and counted at the polls and absentee – by military voters between August 2022 and February 2006, according to Riley Vetterkind, a spokesperson for the Wisconsin Elections Commission.

Two of the figures Brandtjen calculated, though, are slightly off the mark. The 2022 figure – calculated using data from the August midterm primary – is 1,574 and the 2018 figure – calculated using data from the midterm general election – is 4,967. The 2020 figure based on data from the presidential election is correct.

The bigger issue is the fundamental error of comparing a high-turnout presidential election to a low-turnout midterm primary. That's the comparison Brandtjen used to claim that military ballots "mysteriously decrease by 83%."

Such a comparison is inappropriate because of turnout differences in both elections, Barry Burden, a politics professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told USA TODAY in an email.

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"Turnout of military and especially non-military voters is far higher in a presidential contest because of the intensity, visibility and national importance of a presidential election," Burden said. "Military voters in particular tend to be less involved in non-presidential elections because their deployments take them away from the everyday news of state politics."

Burden said this pattern has persisted for many decades.

Brandtjen’s analysis should have compared the 2022 midterm primary figure, the latest available at the time, with the 2018 midterm primary figure, as those occurred at the same point in the election cycle, just four years apart. That shows there was actually an increase in military ballots, from 1,295 to 1,574.

Brandtjen told USA TODAY that she didn't know the document only contained data up until August 2022. The Wisconsin Center for Election Justice did not respond to USA TODAY's request for comment.

The Wisconsin Elections Commission says on its website that there is "no evidence of widespread voter fraud in this or any other Wisconsin election."

Our rating: False

Based on our research, we rate FALSE the claim that a decrease in active military votes in Wisconsin shows election tampering. Such a decrease only occurred if one compares the high-turnout 2020 presidential election and a low-turnout 2022 midterm primary, which experts say is nonsense. Comparing the 2022 midterm primary to the last similar election – the 2018 midterm primary – show military participation actually increased.

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fact check: Post falsely links WI military votes to election tampering