Fact-check: Will U.S. households spend $19 billion more on energy costs by 2030?

Nusaiba Mizan, Austin American-Statesman
·5 min read
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Rep. Roger Williams: "U.S. households are on track to spend $19 billion more on energy by 2030."

PolitiFact's ruling: Half True

Here's why: As President Joe Biden attended the United Nations conference on climate change and promised to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions "while making it more affordable for consumers to save on their own energy bills," a Republican congressman from Texas claimed the opposite.

In a one-minute speech on Oct. 28 in Congress, Rep. Roger Williams, R-Austin, claimed: "U.S. households are on track to spend $19 billion more on energy by 2030." That CSPAN video footage of his one-minute speech was tweeted by Williams on Nov. 1.

U.S. Rep. Roger Williams, R-Austin, claimed that President Joe Biden's decisions regarding energy will lead to higher household energy costs.
U.S. Rep. Roger Williams, R-Austin, claimed that President Joe Biden's decisions regarding energy will lead to higher household energy costs.

Is he right? And how will U.S. household energy costs change in the future?

American Petroleum Institute hypothetical analysis

When asked about Williams' source, his office pointed to an analysis from the American Petroleum Institute, a lobbying organization for the oil and gas industry. The analysis was prepared for the institute by an energy consulting company, OnLocation Inc.

The analysis is specific to one Biden proposal from the campaign trail: a ban on oil and gas operations on federal lands and water. Williams highlighted this at the beginning of his speech.

The $19 billion figure comes from a September 2020 report prompted by a then-campaign promise by Biden to ban leasing and development for oil and gas operations on federal lands. The prediction is that U.S. households would spend a cumulative $19 billion more on energy by 2030 (in 2018 dollars).

The institute extrapolated from and modified the assumptions of a model by the U.S. Energy Information Administration under the U.S. Department of Energy, which tracks energy market data and develops outlooks for the future.

After Biden took office, he banned by executive order new leases for oil and gas production on public land and offshore waters until a review of the permitting and leasing program could be completed.

More: Fact-check: Will Biden’s drilling ban on federal leases 'kill' 120,000 Texas jobs?

The 2020 analysis was based on the proposal to ban new leases and permitting on existing leases, while Biden's executive order was on just new leasing, a spokesperson from the American Petroleum Institute said.

However, the actual pause on leasing was brief because a federal court ordered in June for new leasing to resume. The Department of the Interior issued a release in August about the steps it took to comply with the preliminary injunction. The Justice Department also is appealing the decision to the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

A spokesperson from the Department of the Interior noted in a Nov. 17 email the pause on new leasing did not impact current oil and gas production.

So, in criticism of Biden's policies, Williams used a statistic specific to a campaign promise which is currently not in effect.

While the American Petroleum Institute does have an addendum to its analysis, the institute does not have a 2021 estimate of the potential effect on household energy costs if just new leasing remained on pause.

More: Fact-check: Will Biden's Build Back Better Plan negatively impact inflation?

A spokesperson from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, wrote in an email that under current laws and regulations, residential non-renewable energy expenditures are projected to increase by $18 billion (in 2020 dollars), from $247 billion to $265 billion.

Ultimately, household energy forecasting is challenging — household energy prices depend on a range of hard-to-predict factors. The Energy Information Administration issued caution in its "Annual Energy Outlook 2021" that many events, as well as future technology and demographics, can ultimately affect energy markets.

Our ruling

Williams said "U.S. households are on track to spend $19 billion more on energy by 2030" because of Biden energy policies.

The figure was specific to banning all new leasing and development for oil and gas operations on federal lands and waters. A ban of that scale did not go into effect; only new leasing was banned. And that ban is currently blocked by a federal judge.

The statistic also speaks to only one Biden policy among many climate policies, some of which Biden claims aim to lower household costs.

It's difficult to forecast household energy prices because a lot of factors affect them, and analysts have to hold a lot of factors constant to make predictions.

For example, assuming laws and regulations remain the same, the Energy Information Administration estimates household expenditures will increase by $18 billion.

We rate this as claim as Half True, which means the statement is partially accurate but leaves out important details or takes things out of context.

Sources

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Will U.S. households spend $19 billion more on energy costs by 2030?