Factors Setting the Tone for Big Lots' (BIG) Q3 Earnings

Big Lots, Inc. BIG is likely to report a decrease in the top and the bottom line from the last fiscal year’s quarterly reading in its third-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Dec 1, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fiscal third quarter’s bottom line is currently pegged at a loss of $3.06 per share, wider than the loss of 14 cents recorded in the last fiscal year’s comparable quarter. The consensus mark has been stable in the past 30 days.

The consensus mark for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1,212 million, indicating a 9.3% drop from the last fiscal year’s quarterly reported number.

We expect revenues to fall 8.7% from the year-ago fiscal quarter’s tally to $1,218.8 million and the adjusted loss to decline from the year-earlier fiscal quarter’s level to $2.79 per share.

This Columbus, OH-based player delivered an earnings surprise of 36.7%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Key Factors to Note

Big Lots’ quarterly performance might have been hurt by a challenging operating landscape, including numerous headwinds like supply-chain challenges and inflationary pressures. Any deleverage in SG&A costs might have been added deterrents. In addition, Big Lots has been witnessing increased freight costs for a while. The outbound transportation expenses are adding to deleveraged operating costs. All these factors might have hurt BIG’s performance in the fiscal third quarter.

On its last earnings call, management had expected the operating backdrop to remain tough.  One-year comps were estimated to decline in the low double-digit range for the fiscal third quarter. Big Lots further anticipated significant promotional activity for the said fiscal quarter, resulting in a gross margin rate in the mid-30s.

BIG had projected SG&A dollars to increase in low single-digits from the last fiscal year’s quarterly level due to higher outbound transportation expenses and costs associated with two incremental forward distribution centers. Consequently, management had estimated an operating loss for the fiscal third quarter.

On the flip side, Big Lots’ Operation North Star initiative and e-commerce business appear encouraging. BIG’s Broyhill and Real Living brands are performing well. Management is also consistently taking steps to control expenses.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Big Lots this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here, as elaborated below. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Big Lots, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Big Lots, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Big Lots, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Big Lots, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Big Lots, Inc. Quote

Big Lots currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and an Earnings ESP of +14.26%.

Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are three companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this season:

lululemon athletica LULU currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.50% and a Zacks Rank #2. LULU is likely to register an increase in the bottom line from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure in its third-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings has been stable at $1.95 per share over the past 30 days, suggesting 20.4% growth from the year-ago fiscal quarter’s reported number. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

lululemon athletica’s top line is expected to rise from the prior-year fiscal quarter’s reported number. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.80 billion, suggesting a 24.4% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year fiscal quarter. LULU delivered an earnings beat of 10.4%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Dollar General DG currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.58% and a Zacks Rank of 2. DG is likely to register top-line growth from the year-ago fiscal quarter’s tally in its third-quarter fiscal 2022 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $9.43 billion, suggesting 10.7% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year fiscal quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dollar General’s earnings for the fiscal third quarter is pegged at $2.55 per share, suggesting 22.6% growth from the year-ago fiscal quarter’s tally. The consensus mark has increased a penny in the past 30 days. DG delivered an earnings beat of 2.2%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Casey's General Stores CASY currently has an Earnings ESP of +12.58% and a Zacks Rank of 3. CASY is likely to register top-line growth from the year-earlier fiscal quarter’s actuals when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.16 billion, suggesting 27.5% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year fiscal quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Casey's General Stores’ earnings for the fiscal second quarter is pegged at $3.10 per share, suggesting 19.7% growth from the year-ago fiscal quarter’s tally. The consensus mark has been stable in the past 30 days. CASY delivered an earnings beat of 1.3%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

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Dollar General Corporation (DG) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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