Factors Setting the Tone for Vail Resorts' (MTN) Q4 Earnings
Vail Resorts, Inc. MTN is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Sep 28, after the closing bell. In the last reported quarter, the company reported a negative earnings surprise of 0.1%.
How are Estimates Placed?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fiscal fourth-quarter bottom line is pegged at a loss of $2.91 per share, indicating an improvement of 16.6% from a loss of $3.49 reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $265.1 million. The metric suggests an increase of 29.8% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Vail Resorts, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Vail Resorts, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Vail Resorts, Inc. Quote
Let's take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.
Factors at Play
Vail Resorts’ fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 performance is likely to reflect strong performance by its North American ski season and Australian ski season. This and contributions from the recently acquired operations of Seven Springs, Hidden Valley and Laurel Mountain resorts are likely to have aided the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
On Jun 9, 2022, the company provided a business update, thereby reporting strength in destination visitation and solid lift ticket sales at Colorado and Utah resorts. Also, it informed that eastern U.S. ski areas’ performance mostly remained in line with expectations. Season-to-date (through May 31, 2022), the company stated that Pass product sales had increased approximately 9% in units and approximately 11% in sales dollars compared with the prior-year period (through Jun 1, 2021). The company reported strong unit growth concerning its renewing pass holders. Also, the company reported solid sales with respect to the Epic Australia Pass. Unit sales through May 31, 2022, were up approximately 28% from the comparable period through June 1, 2021. The company is likely to have benefited from the acquisition of Falls Creek and Hotham.
Emphasis on offerings such as Epic Pass, Epic Local Pass, Epic Day Pass and Epic Coverage products, strategic price management and increased lift capacity are likely to have aided the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
However, unfavorable weather conditions are likely to have affected operations in Tahoe resorts. This and coronavirus-induced operational restrictions in dining and staffing challenges might have had affected the company’s ancillary lines of business in the fiscal fourth quarter.
What Our Model Says
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vail Resorts this time around. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. But that's not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Vail Resorts has an Earnings ESP of -7.47%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary space that investors may consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Choice Hotels International, Inc. CHH has an Earnings ESP of +13.53% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Shares of Choice Hotels have declined 15.8% in the past year. CHH’s earnings surpassed the consensus mark thrice in the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 11.2%.
Marriott International, Inc. MAR has an Earnings ESP of +0.6% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
Shares of Marriott have declined 6.5% in the past year. MAR’s earnings surpassed the consensus mark in all of the trailing four quarters, the average being 18.6%.
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. LYV has an Earnings ESP of +14.16% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Shares of Live Nation have declined 15.4% in the past year. LYV’s earnings surpassed the consensus mark thrice in the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 70.7%.
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