Fall foliage in the Southern Tier: What to expect, where to look. We asked the experts

Predicting how fall foliage progression will unfold is a science, but like weather forecasting, it's often similar to aiming at a moving target — with your eyes closed.

Leaf peeping is a fun autumn pastime, and it's also a big tourist draw in the Finger Lakes Region and elsewhere around New York state.

So what will this fall foliage season look like?

Forestry experts say there are a lot of variables to consider. A wet summer provided favorable conditions for a colorful fall, but conditions over the coming weeks will also play an important role.

Experts agree on one thing, at least in the Southern Tier.

"We are behind (in leaf changes) maybe," said Chris Sprague, Region 7 forester for the state Department of Environmental Conservation. "Moisture also leads to increases in certain diseases. There might be some damage from that."

Exhale Fall foliage captured by our photojournalists across New York state

The inexact science of fall foliage forecasting

A whole host of variables goes into predicting when and where leaves will reach their peak, and what colors will dominate.

A hot, dry summer can stress trees and cause them to shed their leaves early. Too much rain can increase the growth of fungi that can damage leaves, and infestations of spongy (formerly gypsy) moths and other insects can take a toll as well.

Conditions can also be very localized.

"At my house you could see a lot of rain, but on the other side of the lake, not so much," said DEC Region 8 forester Robert "Tad" Norton.

Even when summer conditions are ideal, the timing and intensity of the fall foliage season can still be affected by autumn weather patterns.

"This summer’s weather is setting up for a potentially good fall color season across the state," said DEC Senior Forester Dan Gaidasz. "With good moisture in the ground, as we go into fall, we still have to see if we can get a succession of warm, sunny days and cool, crisp, but not freezing nights."

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When to expect fall colors in New York

In terms of timing, Norton and Sprague both say typical progression usually leads to peak foliage colors in early to mid October in most parts of the Southern Tier.

Art DeGaetano, director of the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University, said the foliage season is definitely off to a slow start, but he believes vivid leaf colors are still coming.

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"In general, summers with lots of sunny days and adequate moisture are probably the ideal conditions for vibrant foliage. This summer lived up to these conditions in some places," DeGaetano said.

"At this time of year, we are really looking for sunny days and cool nights to kick off the fall colors, not quite what we have seen at the beginning of September," he said. "The next couple of weeks look like they may live up to these expectations, though."

Good public places to view fall foliage

Regardless of how and when the fall foliage season progresses, the rolling hills and valleys of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier regions provide a perfect canvas for nature to create its often breathtaking autumn landscapes.

There are also several spots across the region open to easy public access to facilitate leaf peeping for both residents and visitors.

Here are a few suggestions for viewing fall foliage this year:

Allegany/Steuben County: Kanakadea Park just northwest of Hornell is a Steuben County-owned park, surrounded by hills, and also featuring Almond Lake. In addition, just west of the park, an Interstate 86 rest area along the Allegany-Steuben County line includes a scenic overlook that also provides a good view of changing foliage.

Broome County: Roundtop Picnic Area sits on a hilltop overlooking Endicott, and provides a clear view to the east and west along the Susquehanna River Valley. The park, a collaborative effort among Broome County, the Village of Endicott and Endicott Rotary Club, is open through October.

Chemung County: Harris Hill Park is a county-owned park on top of Harris Hill in Big Flats, about halfway between Corning and Elmira. The hilltop also features a glider field, the National Soaring Museum, and a scenic overlook that provides a panoramic view of the Chemung River Valley.

Schuyler County: The Seneca Lake Wine Trail provides scenic views all along the largest of the Finger Lakes, including wineries along state Route 414 on the east side and Route 14 on the west side of the lake. The waterfront at Clute Park in Watkins Glen offers a good north-facing view of both sides of the lake.

Steuben County: As with Schuyler County, the Keuka Lake Wine Trail provides a good view of hillside foliage along both sides of the Y-shaped lake from Hammondsport in central Steuben County northward toward Penn Yan in Yates County.

Tioga County: Hickories Park in Owego is along the Susquehanna River and is right off Exit 65 of Interstate 86, and is just two miles from Owego's historic downtown shopping district. Among the park's many amenities is a walking/biking path that provides up close viewing of leaves.

For more information about fall foliage in New York state, including the best regions to visit as the season progresses, go to iloveny.com/things-to-do/fall/foliage-report.

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This article originally appeared on Elmira Star-Gazette: New York fall foliage outlook. Best views near Binghamton, Elmira