Fantasy football draft tips: Sleepers are awake. It’s time to bust a move

Here are a few sleepy facts you should know. Taller people sleep longer in bed. Gingerbread men sleep on cookie sheets. When you get older, happy hour is an afternoon nap. The amount of sleep required by the average person is five minutes more. And people in sleeping bags are soft tacos to bears.

But for fantasy football purposes, “sleepers” are players who are not valued properly and will vastly outperform their ADP (Average Draft Position). So don’t doze off during your fantasy draft. The following sleepers will wake up and give you the fantasy season of your dreams.

SLEEPERS

• Matthew Stafford, Rams QB: Don’t give up on Stafford just yet. He is only one season removed from his stellar 4,886 yards and 41 TDs season. Maybe he had a Super Bowl hangover, but Stafford did not play well before succumbing to injury in 2022 1 . However, with a porous Rams defense forcing a lot of catch-up play, expect Stafford to bounce back with over 4,000 yards and 25 TDs. Why? Because Cooper Kupp and 2021 second-rounder Tutu Atwell are healthy, Cam Akers looked amazing by year’s end, and Tyler Higbee will stop being ignored in the game plan. I’m not advising drafting Stafford as your starter, but if he’s still available in the later rounds, there are worse choices for your backup QB.

• Elijah Moore, Browns WR: I’m doubling down. I thought Moore would be a sleeper for the Jets last year, only to be stymied by horrible quarterback play. Shipped off to Cleveland so that Aaron Rodgers could bring his playmates with him to New York, Moore has a new lease on life. His QB is now Deshaun Watson, so Elijah prophetically sees a bright future. He’s an elite talent who will shine opposite Amari Cooper. In weeks 6-12 of 2021, Elijah had 35 receptions for 472 yards and six TDs. For that seven-game stretch, he was the third highest scoring WR in Fantasy, behind only Deebo Samuel and Cooper Kupp.

• Dalton Schultz, Texans TE: When future Hall of Fame TE Jason Witten retired in 2019, the Cowboys didn’t miss a beat with Dalton Schultz. His 2,000 yards on 198 receptions for 17 TDs ranks seventh for TEs since 2020. Dalton went southwest from Dallas, signing a one-year “prove it” contract for $9 million with Houston. He will take young QB C.J. Stroud under his wing and be the same reliable safety outlet that Dak Prescott counted on in Dallas. The dearth of WR experience and depth in Houston will only drive-up Schultz’ usage. He will finish as a top 12 TE.

• Tyler Allgeier, Falcons RB: A lot of noise has been made about rookie RB Bijan Robinson, the Falcon’s first round draft pick. Atlanta ranked third in the NFL in rushing. Did they actually need help in the running game? As spectacular as Robinson was in college, I don’t see him immediately supplanting Allgeier, who averaged a robust 4.9 yards per carry. Arthur Smith loves the running game to a fault. If it ain’t broke, he won’t fix it. Allgeier will eventually share time with Robinson, but until then he is a solid RB2.

• Miles Sanders, Panthers RB: The Panthers are very good at running the ball. Even without the NFL’s best RB Christian McCaffrey on the team, they finished 10th in the league with a patchwork of replacement RBs. Enter 2022 Pro Bowl RB Sanders, coming off a monster 1,269-yard, 11 TD season with the Eagles. He amassed those numbers in a tougher defensive division, the NFC East. I can’t wait to see how Sanders will tear into the Saints on Monday Night Football in week two.

SUPER SLEEPER

• Jaylen Warren, Steelers RB: It’s rare when a backup clearly has more talent than the starter. Just as Tony Pollard should have started over Zeke Elliott in Dallas last year, I’m surprised Najee Harris has kept Warren on the bench. I think it has more to do with Harris’ first round status. Warren went undrafted. But last season Warren averaged a yard more per carry and two yards more per reception than Harris. As the workhorse, Harris plodded his way to the 16th best RB in the fantasy world. He’s still ahead of Warren in all venues, but should anything happen to Harris, Warren is in serious top ten discussion. Stash him on your bench.

What do you think of when you read the names Art Schlichter, Todd Blackledge, Rick Mirer, Ryan Leaf, Johnny Manziel and Todd Marinovich? Failure? Tragedy? Catastrophe? How about all-time busts? These NFL quarterback stiffs were first-round draft picks. Despite great promise, they never panned out and set their respective franchises back years. The GMs who drafted them were probably fired soon after. Don’t let this happen to you.

A fantasy football “bust” is just the opposite of a sleeper. These walking disappointments will woefully under perform compared to their ADP. Here’s a list of “do not pick” busts for your upcoming fantasy draft.

BUSTS

• Jimmy Garoppolo, Raiders QB: There’s a black hole in Vegas, and Jimmy G is at the bottom of it looking up. No Darren Waller, no Josh Jacobs (for now), there’s no way smart money drafts Garoppolo. I always discount injuries, (as I did when recommending keeping the faith with Christian McCaffrey last year), but Jimmy G is just too fragile. He’s never played more than 10 games in a year. Even if he gives you a few good outings throwing to Davante Adams, why waste a draft pick on him knowing full well you’ll be scouring the waiver wire by Week 11?

• Odell Beckham Jr., Ravens WR: He’s baaaaaaack! When we last saw Odell, he was streaking across the field in the 2021 Super Bowl, only to tear his ACL in a freak non-contact injury. He hasn’t played since. Odell has been remarkably average since 2020, totaling 67 receptions, 856 yards and eight TDs with the Browns and Rams. That’s a far cry from his 2014-16 Giants glory days (288 receptions, 4,122 yards and 35 TDs). Owners will draft Odell with visions of his one-handed backwards touchdown catch against Dallas. Sorry folks, that was nine long years ago. You’re better off remembering his lost Super Bowl and passing on him.
  
  

• Kadarius Toney, Chiefs WR: Faster than a speeding bullet, able to leap tall linebackers in a single bound, but I wouldn’t draft Toney 2 with the last pick in any draft. The man is made of papier-mâché, and I’m tired of watching him break apart. Even as I write this, he’s out for all of training camp after a “minor” knee surgery. He’s missed 15 games in two seasons and been limited to less than 40% of offensive snaps in 11 others. That’s 26 out of 33 games he’s been hurt. Go ahead and draft him if you’re a masochist. It’s far too painful for me.
  
  

• Kyle Pitts, Falcons TE: There was no bigger fan of Pitts 3 last year than yours truly. I had him in every league I was in, even if I had to draft him by round three. Yes sir, the bandwagon was full. But Falcon’s coach Arthur Smith apparently hates bandwagons, because he made sure Pitts was the most ignored first-round talent in NFL history. Pitts averaged 2.8 catches a game last season, with only two TDs. The Falcons just want to run, as proven by the fact they passed the ball the second fewest times in the NFL last year. This approach keeps Pitts at about TE 15. Someday Smith will wake up. You can’t keep your Lamborghini in the garage forever. Keep an eye on the preseason games. If Smith decides to let Pitts loose, the Falcon TE catapults to “sleeper” status.
  
  

• Hayden Hurst, Panthers TE: Hurst is a fine player, who was a security blanket for Joe Burrow in Cincinnati. But don’t expect him to be the only TE check-down for rookie QB Bryce Young. Veteran Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble (2021 third rounder out of Notre Dame) are quite talented. Coach Frank Reich rotates his TEs. his top three with the Colts last year had 31, 25, and 19 receptions. Sharing TE targets limits any volume Hurst might accrue and jettisons him out of the top 20 TEs.
  
  

SUPER BUST

• Calvin Ridley, Jaguars WR: If you want a little action, you can always bet on Ridley. Scratched for two years straight, he’s back on track for 2023. But will this young colt beat the odds and supplant the trifecta of Zay Jones (82/823/5), Christian Kirk (84/1,100/8) and Evan Engram (73/766/4)? It’s a longshot.
  
  

Next week: Draft Day Tips

Bill Reinhard is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.