Fantasy football: Revisiting our 21 predictions for the 2021 season

There were a ton of big questions heading into the 2021 fantasy football season. With so much up in the air, we took a shot at making 21 predictions for the 2021 season.

Last year we nailed 11 of 20 preseason predictions. This year: we were right on 11 of 21.

NFL odds: Matchups, spreads and over/unders

1. Dak Prescott will finish as a top-five quarterback.

This one started off hot as Prescott passed for over 400 yards and three touchdowns in the season opener against the Buccaneers. After a dud against the Chargers in Week 2, Prescott had 13 TDs and just two interceptions over the next four games. He then missed a game against Minnesota with a calf strain in Week 8. That and four dud games down the stretch left him at QB9 for the year. Fantasy managers were probably happy with his overall performance, however, as he had a pair of strong games during the fantasy playoffs.

2. Speaking of the Cowboys, CeeDee Lamb will be Dallas' top fantasy wideout.

This wasn't that bold of a prediction, but with Amari Cooper still on the team and a talented Michael Gallup and Prescott both returning from injury, there was a bit of a question. Lamb finished as the WR14, 14 spots better than Cooper.

3. Nick Chubb will be a top-five running back in half-PPR leagues.

This is a miss as Chubb finished as the No. 10 running back. He caught 20 passes, which matched his second-best output in that department. Chubb rushed for at least 83 yards in each of his first five games and topped 100 rushing yards in four games. He would have had a shot at making this prediction correct had he not missed three full games.

4. Derrick Henry will top 1,500 rushing yards and 10 total touchdowns.

We get half credit on this one. Here's another situation where we would have been correct had injury not been a factor. In just half a season, Henry rushed for 937 yards and 10 TDs. If he had played eight more games, there's no doubt he would have hit our lofty projections.

5. Darren Waller will be at least the second-best tight end.

We're sensing a theme here. Waller missed six games, which kept him from performing as a TE1 overall. He finished as the TE17, catching 55 passes for 665 yards and two scores. In terms of average scoring, Waller was in the top five.

6. Kyle Pitts will be a top-six tight end.

OK, back in the correct column. Pitts finished as the TE5 in his rookie year. He wasn't a season winner for fantasy managers, but having any kind of an effect on fantasy as a rookie tight end is rare. His 1,000-yard season was marred only by low touchdown production (one).

7. Rondale Moore will be the Cardinals' second-highest scoring wide receiver.

A little too bold here, probably due to believing the hype around the versatile and tough wideout. He definitely flashed at points in the season, but he finished as the fourth-best Arizona wideout in fantasy scoring. He had a 100-yard game in his second outing. He caught a career-high 11 passes before the bye but fell off significantly after the week off and missed the last two games of the fantasy season.

8. Brandon Aiyuk: 1,000 yards and at least eight touchdowns.

Week 1 hit us like a ton of bricks when Aiyuk was shut out. We were fully expecting him to take the ball and run with it in his second year. Deebo Samuel turned out to be the best wideout for the 49ers. Aiyuk ended up with 719 receiving yards and five touchdowns through Week 17.

9. Ja'Marr Chase will just barely edge out Tee Higgins as the Bengals' highest-scoring receiver.

We were right about Chase, but he had a little more breathing room over Higgins than predicted. Chase finished as the WR4, preseason reports out of camp be damned. Higgins was the WR18 but would have been closer had he played in more than 14 games.

10. Corey Davis will be the Jets' top receiver in his first 1,000-yard season.

While he was second on the team in terms of fantasy points per game for wideouts, he played in just nine games. He finished with 492 yards and four scores while rookie Elijah Moore led the receiving corps.

11. Melvin Gordon will be Denver's top running back in fantasy points.

This one stings because Gordon missed a game and Williams didn't. That provided the difference in their numbers. Williams finished as the RB17 while Gordon ended up the RB21. Gordon had nine total TDs while Williams accounted for seven. Williams edged out Gordon in rushing and receiving yards while making 41 receptions to Gordon's 27 through Week 17. It was close, but Williams gets the nod in half-PPR scoring.

12. Kenny Golladay won't finish as a WR2 or better.

He did lead the position for the Giants, but he finished as a WR81 on that pitiful offense. Golladay had 34 receptions for 499 yards and failed to score a TD.

13. Najee Harris will finish as an RB1.

Not only did the rookie finish as an RB1, he was in the top four. Harris played in all 16 games of the fantasy season and was never threatened by any teammates for touches. He had fewer than 10 rushing attempts just once and possibly won championships for fantasy managers with his 188 yards and a score in Week 17.

14. DeVonta Smith will be a value pick, finishing as a top-35 WR.

If you had him on your team, there were definitely weeks when he helped you win as either a WR2 or a flex player. He finished as the WR31, catching 61 passes for 875 yards and five TDs through Week 17.

15. Antonio Gibson won't be an RB1 in half-PPR leagues.

We just missed out on getting this one right. Gibson finished as the RB12, less than a point better than RB13 Damien Harris. Gibson gained 891 rushing yards, caught 41 passes for 289 yards and scored nine TDs.

16. Logan Thomas will finish as a top-eight tight end.

Thomas is another player whose season was ruined by injury. He finished as the TE40 after playing in only five games.

17. Joe Mixon will be an RB1.

Mixon, who played in just six games last season, finished as the RB3 in a great bounceback season, rushing for 1,205 yards, catching 42 passes for 314 yards and scoring 16 touchdowns.

18. Jalen Hurts will end the season as a QB1.

We nailed this one as Hurts utilized a great ability to run the ball on his way to recording a QB8 season. He threw for modest numbers — 3,144 yards and 16 TDs — but he also rushed for 784 yards and 10 more scores.

19. Trevor Lawrence won't be the top-scoring rookie quarterback.

When Kyle Shanahan and Matt Nagy both held back their rookie QBs, this prediction was threatened. Mac Jones saved us, though. The rookie finished as the QB17 while Lawrence suffered under Urban Meyer for most of the season to sit at QB23.

20. Trey Sermon will have more fantasy points than Raheem Mostert.

It doesn't seem right to take credit for this one, but it's technically correct. While we missed on predicting Elijah Mitchell as the best back on the 49ers, we correctly predicted a rookie would be better than the oft-injured Mostert. Sermon was the RB89 while Mostert was the RB141.

21. COVID-19 will once again affect the fantasy season.

In addition to the NFL moving three games during Week 15, players such as Amari Cooper, Tyreek Hill and Carson Wentz were all affected. Cooper missed two games, against the Chiefs and Raiders, after catching the virus. Hill was able to play after going through protocols in Week 16, but he was a shadow of himself, catching two passes for 19 yards. Wentz didn't practice all week but took advantage of new protocols to suit up for Week 17 against the Raiders and proceeded to throw for just 148 yards.

Note: Position rankings are based on FantasyPros' half-PPR scoring.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Fantasy football: Grading our 21 predictions for the 2021 season