Fantasy plays: Players to start and sit for NFL Week 15

For the select few of you who still need start/sit advice this late into the season — congratulations.

You made it to the fantasy football playoffs.

This is where hard work (or luck) truly shines.

That being said, while making the postseason is nice, nobody gets a trophy for qualifying for the playoffs.

No, we’re in the business of winning fantasy leagues. But how do you do that?

Simple: make savvy waiver wire additions when needed and nail your start/sit decisions. This piece should cover the latter.

Every week I list out every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers with the higher-tiered players deemed more start-worthy. For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to numberFire ’s projection model.

These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback — though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats.

Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.

All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

QUARTERBACKS

Tier 1: Lineup locks

— Josh Allen (BUF)

— Lamar Jackson (BAL)

— Dak Prescott (DAL)

— Jalen Hurts (PHI)

— Brock Purdy (SF)

— Patrick Mahomes (KC)

Tier 2: Probable starters

Matthew Stafford (LAR). He has scored between 23 and 25 fantasy points in three consecutive games. He’s thrown 10 passing touchdowns over that span after totaling just nine in his previous nine games combined. Stafford is clicking at the perfect time to face a Commanders D allowing the most adjusted fantasy points per drop-back to opposing quarterbacks. He’s an easy QB1 with LA having the second-highest implied team total (27.5) of the week.

Jordan Love (GB). He took a step back last week, finishing with his fewest fantasy points (9.9) and second-fewest yards (218) since their Week 6 bye. Although he snapped a four-game streak of top-12 finishes, there’s room for optimism in Week 15. Not only has Tampa Bay given up the third-highest EPA per drop-back and fourth-most yards per attempt on the season, but it just let Desmond Ridder finish with 347 yards and 26.4 fantasy points. Continue to start him with confidence.

Sam Howell (WSH). He has finished as a top-12 quarterback in eight of his past nine games. Although the Rams have a formidable secondary, Washington’s third-ranked pass rate over expectation should give Howell a ton of volume considering the Commanders 6.5-point underdogs. Bear in mind, however, that he’s rushed for four touchdowns in his past three games. Still, this game has the second-highest total (49.5) of the week, so Howell remains a quality start.

Trevor Lawrence (JAX). Despite having the second-lowest yards per attempt and throwing three interceptions last week, Trevor Lawrence managed to extend his streak of 20-plus fantasy points to four games while playing on a sprained ankle against one of the best defenses in the NFL. The matchup doesn’t get any easier this week. Baltimore is second in adjusted fantasy points per drop-back, Lawrence's upside is still too high to leave on your bench.

Russell Wilson (DEN). A model of consistency, Russell Wilson has averaged 17.0 fantasy points per game since their Week 9 bye. Playing at the NFL’s second-lowest adjusted pace caps his upside, but there could be more volume headed his way this week as a 4.5-point underdog in Detroit. The Lions are bottom-five in adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), adjusted fantasy points per drop-back, and EPA per drop-back allowed to QBs. He has a stellar floor/ceiling combination this week.

Tier 3: On the fence

Justin Fields (CHI). He has had at least 12 rush attempts in all three games since returning from injury after failing to do so once prior. He’s turned in a pair of top-10 finishes over that span and is fresh off a 24.7-point effort. That said, we have to downgrade him this week given the matchup. A road game against Cleveland’s second-ranked pass defense doesn’t bode well for his arm, but his rekindled rushing prowess at least gives him a nice floor.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA). I’m not excited about Tua Tagovailoa this week. He’s finished with fewer than 13 fantasy points in three of his past five games — one of which came against his opponent this week, the Jets. New York has given up the fewest adjusted fantasy points per drop-back to QBs, and it doesn’t help that Tyreek Hill got injured last week. Tagovailoa has only one home game with fewer than 18 fantasy points this season, but it came last week in a (seemingly) soft matchup.

Jared Goff (DET). I get that Jared Goff is coming off his worst fantasy performance of the season and has finished as a top-12 QB just twice in the past five weeks, but he’s not a bad streaming candidate. He’s at home, where he averages 19.8 fantasy points per game against a Broncos defense that’s given up the third-most adjusted fantasy points per drop-back. They’ve been better of late, but Detroit’s 26-point implied team total gives him a nice floor.

Tier 4: Sit if possible

Kyler Murray (ARI) He has completed just 60.8% of his passes since debuting and is coming off a season-low 11.8 fantasy points. Murray’s legs help his floor, and there’s some garbage-time potential here, but the matchup is brutal. The 49ers have given up the third-fewest adjusted fantasy points per drop-back to QBs. Consequently, numberFire projects Murray for just 13.6 fantasy points, 20th among quarterbacks. I’d avoid him if possible.

C.J. Stroud (HOU). It remains to be seen whether C.J. Stroud even plays this week after entering concussion protocol, but it’s difficult to get excited about him either way. Stroud has lost his top two pass catchers the past two weeks and now has to face a Titans defense that just locked up a potent Miami offense. There’s too much risk to start him with your season on the line.

Desmond Ridder (ATL). Please don’t chase Desmond Ridder’s season-best performance last week. It came at home against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. This week, Ridder takes on a Panthers defense that’s been decent against the pass but ranks last in numberFire’s scheduled-adjusted rush defense metrics. Considering Atlanta’s league-worst pass rate over expectation, Ridder may not attempt 25 passes. He’s an easy sit.

RUNNING BACKS

Tier 1: Lineup locks

— Christian McCaffrey (SF)

— Kyren Williams (LAR)

— Bijan Robinson (ATL)

— Alvin Kamara (NO)

— Saquon Barkley (NYG)

— Austin Ekeler (LAC)

— Tony Pollard (DAL)

— Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)

— Travis Etienne (JAX)

— Rachaad White (TB)

— Raheem Mostert (MIA)

— Derrick Henry (TEN)

— David Montgomery (DET)

— Breece Hall (NYJ)

— De’Von Achane (MIA)

— James Cook (BUF)

— Joe Mixon (CIN)

— Javonte Williams (DEN)

— Zack Moss (IND)

— James Conner (ARI)

Tier 2: Probable starters

D’Andre Swift (PHI). It’s been a rough few weeks for D’Andre Swift. After finishing as a top 25 running back for nine consecutive weeks, Swift has now finished outside the top 25 in three straight games. Backup Kenneth Gainwell has out-snapped Swift the past two weeks, but Swift still averaged 14.5 adjusted opportunities over that stretch — enough volume to warrant starting him against a Seahawks D that’s allowed the third-most adjusted fantasy points per carry to opposing running backs.

Ezekiel Elliott (NE). Ezekiel Elliott turned back the clock last week, finishing as the weekly RB1 for the first time since early 2021. He earned 38 adjusted opportunities in doing so, pacing the Patriots with a 30.8% target share. That kind of volume simply has to be in your starting lineup, especially against a Chiefs defense that ranks 28th in numberFire’s schedule-adjusted rush defense. Even if they fall behind early, Elliott's receiving work is too strong to sit.

Jerome Ford (CLE). He hasn’t offered much of a ceiling, but Ford’s scored at least 9.9 fantasy points in eight of his past nine games. While Chicago ranks second in scheduled-adjusted rush D, the Bears are middle of the pack in adjusted fantasy points allowed. He’s had nine targets in Joe Flacco’s two starts and should offer low-end RB2 value yet again in Week 15.

Chuba Hubbard (CAR). Over his past three games, Hubbard has averaged 25.3 adjusted opportunities, 97.3 scrimmage yards, and 3.3 red zone rush attempts per game. He’s the RB8 in half-PPR over that span. Atlanta is a tough matchup —the Falcons allow the fewest adjusted fantasy points per carry — but Hubbard’s role is strong enough to warrant another start.

Devin Singletary (HOU). The Texans went back to Devin Singletary last week, giving him 19 adjusted opportunities and 56% of snaps. His touchdown upside likely takes a hit with all of Houston’s passing game injuries, but he’ll likely approach with 20 opportunities regardless of who’s under center. Although Tennessee ranks sixth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs, the Titans allow double-digit fantasy points to opposing backs in five of their past seven games, so his floor is solid.

Josh Jacobs (LV). His status is up in the air after leaving last week’s game. If he manages to suit up, he deserves to be in lineups. The Chargers are middle of the pack against the run, and, before last week, Jacobs had finished as a top 24 RB in eight of his previous 10 games. Backup Zamir White would be a decent pivot if Jacobs can’t go, but he has only 20 carries on the season.

Najee Harris (PIT). He struggled last week, totaling just 6.3 fantasy points against New England’s rush defense. He’s now been held to single-digit points in three of his past four games, but there’s reason for optimism in Week 15. Indianapolis has allowed the fourth-most adjusted fantasy points per carry, and the Colts just gave up a pair of RB1 performances to Cincinnati’s Joe Mixon and Chase Brown. Harris profiles as a quality flex or low-end RB2.

Jaylen Warren (PIT). Since Pittsburgh fired Matt Canada, Jaylen Warren has yet to eclipse 6.0 fantasy points, so I understand the hesitation with starting him. That said, he’s still averaged 17 adjusted opportunities and had an 11.7% target share over the past three games. The Bengals’ running backs totaled 126 receiving yards last week, and Indy ranks 26th in adjusted fantasy points per target to running backs on the season, paving the way for a bounce-back effort for Warren.

Ty Chandler (MIN). If Alexander Mattison is unable to go, Ty Chandler would be an intriguing start. Chandler played a season-high 56.3% of snaps and had 18 adjusted opportunities last week, but managed just 5.7 fantasy points. The matchup is better this week, however, as the Bengals rank 31st in schedule-adjusted rush defense. You’ll have to wait on Mattison’s status, but Chandler profiles as a solid flex if he’s the starter.

Tier 3: On the fence

A.J. Dillon (GB). There’s a chance Aaron Jones returns, but even if A.J. Dillon is the starter, it’s difficult to get too excited about him fantasy-wise. Despite getting 20.8 adjusted opportunities per game over the past four weeks, Dillon has been held to single-digit fantasy points. Granted, he’s provided a stable floor of 8.1-9.6 fantasy points, but a 34.4% success rate and 3.2 yards per carry have capped his upside. Tampa is fourth in schedule-adjusted rush defense, so Dillon is nothing more than a desperation flex in Week 15.

Tyjae Spears (TEN). Although he’s coming off his second-best fantasy performance of the season, this week’s game script doesn’t appear to bode well for Tyjae Spears. The rookie got most of his production through the air last week, getting six of eight targets (22.2% share) for 89 receiving yards in a comeback effort. Tennessee is a 2.5-point home favorite this week, so there’s a degree of risk in starting him given the projected positive game script.

D’Onta Foreman (CHI). He led the way with a 56.1% snap share and 17 adjusted opportunities last week, so he appears to be the top back in Chicago. That said, I’m not sure there’s much upside with him against a Cleveland front that’s seventh in schedule-adjusted rush defense. The Bears have a 17-point implied team total, so it’s best to leave Foreman on the bench unless you’re desperate.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC). He had 19 adjusted opportunities last week, but managed just 68 scrimmage yards and failed to capitalize on his lone red zone rush attempt. While there’s some upside if Isiah Pacheco is unable to go considering KC is a 9.5-point favorite, the Patriots are numberFire’s top-ranked rush defense, and they’ve given up the second-fewest adjusted fantasy points per carry.

Jerick McKinnon (KC). He also has a brutal matchup this week. However, McKinnon is the RB I’d want to start from this backfield. He dominated down the stretch last season and played just two fewer snaps than Edwards-Helaire after missing the previous two weeks. Although he had only three targets, he ran more routes than Edwards-Helaire and scored on his red zone rush attempt.

Chase Brown (CIN). He has really flashed the past two weeks, racking up 166 total yards off 20 opportunities. Still, while his snap share doubled last week (from 15.3% to 29.8%), he isn’t on the field enough to trust him in starting lineups against a Vikings defense giving up the fourth-fewest adjusted fantasy points per carry.

Antonio Gibson (WSH). With Brian Robinson banged up, Antonio Gibson is interesting given his receiving work in a potentially negative game script. Gibson tied for a team-high 22.7% target share the previous time Washington took the field, and the Commanders are 6.5-point road underdogs this week. The Rams have given up the sixth-fewest adjusted fantasy points per target to opposing RBs, so he’s at best a low-end RB2 if Robinson misses again.

Keaton Mitchell (BAL). He has led the Baltimore backfield in snap rate (39%), adjusted opportunities (12), and yards per game (64) over the past three weeks. He’s proven capable of delivering in fantasy on limited opportunities, but Baltimore’s committee approach limits him to a dart-throw flex option in Week 15.

Tier 4: Sit if possible

Kenneth Walker (SEA). He managed 7.4 fantasy points in his return last week, but it’s clear that Zach Charbonnet isn’t going away anytime soon. Although it was encouraging to see him lead the way with a 58.2% snap rate and five targets, Philly ranks fifth in adjusted fantasy points per carry and first in adjusted fantasy points per RB target. He has some touchdown upside, but the line hints at a pass-heavy approach for the Seahawks.

Gus Edwards (BAL). He may be the most touchdown-dependent fantasy option in the league. Edwards hasn’t eclipsed 6.0 fantasy points in any game he hasn’t scored — a bad omen for someone who hasn’t gotten a red zone rush attempt since Week 11. With his snap rate dwindling to 26% in the past two games, Edwards shouldn’t be in starting lineups until further notice.

Kareem Hunt (CLE). While a touchdown salvaged his game last week, Hunt hasn’t eclipsed double-digit points since Week 8, and he continues to play fewer than 40% of snaps. The Bears have been one of the better defenses in the league, limiting his touchdown upside and relegating Hunt to the bench.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Tier 1: Lineup locks

— Tyreek Hill (MIA)

— CeeDee Lamb (DAL)

— A.J. Brown (PHI)

— Deebo Samuel (SF)

— Cooper Kupp (LAR)

— Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)

— D.K. Metcalf (SEA)

— Mike Evans (TB)

— Stefon Diggs (BUF)

— D.J. Moore (CHI)

— Puka Nacua (LAR)

— Michael Pittman Jr. (IND)

— Justin Jefferson (MIN)

— Chris Olave (NO)

— Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)

— Davante Adams (LV)

— Brandon Aiyuk (SF)

— DeVonta Smith (PHI)

— Garrett Wilson (NYJ)

— Courtland Sutton (DEN)

— DeAndre Hopkins (TEN)

— Jaylen Waddle (MIA)

— Rashee Rice (KC)

— Zay Flowers (BAL)

Tier 2: Probable starters

Jayden Reed (GB). Since Week 10, Reed has been the WR12 overall. He’s turned in three WR1 performances over that span and just had a 26.3% target share last week in addition to his work on the ground. Tampa Bay has given up the fourth-highest WR target rate and fifth-most yards per route run (YPRR) over the past four games, so Reed is a strong flex or WR3 this week.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA). He doesn’t have the fantasy production to show for it, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba has led the Seahawks with a 26.1% target share in the past two weeks. Perhaps this is the week Smith-Njigba truly breaks out. Over the past seven weeks, the Eagles have given up the most touchdowns and second-most raw fantasy points per target to opposing WRs. His upside is too high to leave on benches in a game with a 47.5-point total.

Tyler Lockett (SEA). He has had at least an 18% target share in every game since Week 1 and ranks second on the team with a 21.3% red zone target share over that span. He broke out of a mini-slump with 11.9 fantasy points last week, so we can feel safe deploying Lockett regardless of who’s under center for Seattle.

Calvin Ridley (JAX). With Christian Kirk out, Calvin Ridley has garnered 21 targets in the past two games. That’s led to only eight receptions and two finishes outside the top 40 WRs, but it’s only a matter of time before that volume leads to fantasy production. While Baltimore has a strong secondary, it just gave up three top 24 finishes to the Rams’ receivers.

Odell Beckham Jr. (BAL). He has eclipsed 10 fantasy points in four of his past five games, and he just dropped 17.7 fantasy points and had a 25% target share. Jacksonville has given up the fifth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to WRs on the season and the third-most YPRR over the past five weeks. He’s one of my favorite starts of the week.

Adam Thielen (CAR). He bounced back with 9.9 fantasy points after a pair of quiet weeks. Although he’s just the WR42 since Carolina’s Week 7 bye, the matchup is strong enough to warrant a start this week. Atlanta features strong outside corners but has been vulnerable to the slot, most recently ceding 11 targets to Chris Godwin. Thielen is a quality flex based on volume alone.

Diontae Johnson (PIT). Johnson delivered with Mitch Trubisky at the helm last week, getting a 20% target share and catching a touchdown en route to 13.2 fantasy points. Indianapolis has given up the eighth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to WRs this season, so Johnson’s steady volume settles him in flex territory for Week 15.

Noah Brown (HOU). I don’t want anything to do with Houston’s receivers if C.J. Stroud is out, but Noah Brown has upside if Stroud is cleared. Brown leads all Texans WRs with an 80.2% route rate, and he’s run a route on at least 70% of drop-backs in all seven of his healthy games. The Titans have let up the second-most adjusted fantasy points per target to the position, so he’s a strong flex if Stroud plays.

Tier 3: On the fence

Amari Cooper (CLE). Joe Flacco peppered Amari Cooper with 14 targets last week. Although he managed to haul in only seven of those, his 77 yards were his most since Deshaun Watson’s last start. That target volume has Cooper under flex consideration, but the matchup is tough. The Bears have held WRs to the eighth-lowest target rate on the season, and they just held Amon-Ra St. Brown to just 3.6 fantasy points.

Terry McLaurin (WSH). He continues to run a route on nearly 90% of drop-backs, but his fantasy production has dried up of late. He hasn’t eclipsed 10 fantasy points since Week 8 and was held without a catch in the Washington's most recent outing. While there’s room for optimism that McLaurin gets an uptick coming out of Washington’s bye, the Rams rank fifth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to receivers.

Drake London (ATL). He has been an inconsistent fantasy player of late. While he is coming off a season-best 24.2 fantasy points, London had been held to single digits in four of his previous five games. Carolina is a run-funnel defense, and Atlanta has by far the lowest pass rate over expectation this season, so London is a true dart throw on the road.

Zay Jones (JAX). He has had a ton of targets over the past two weeks — 22, to be exact. That resulted in only 15.7 combined fantasy points, however, so his volume isn’t guaranteed to lead to fantasy production. Still, approaching with double-digit targets warrants a start in itself, even in a tough matchup.

Brandin Cooks (DAL). He has five touchdowns on the season, and he’s averaging 16.6 fantasy points in those games. However, he’s running a 13.1% target share, so there’s not much margin for error when he doesn’t score. Dallas has a 24-point implied team total this week, and the Bills allow the ninth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to WRs, but Cooks’ inconsistent volume doesn’t offer much of a floor.

Jakobi Meyers (LV). He had a 20.7% target share last week, but it resulted in just 5.0 fantasy points. Aidan O’Connell hasn’t proven very capable of supporting both Meyers and Davante Adams in the same week, so it’s hard to trust the former even against the Chargers secondary.

Romeo Doubs (GB). He had an 18.4% target share and a pair of red zone targets last week but managed just 5.2 fantasy points. That was without Christian Watson. If Watson suits up this week, he’d be the preferred play of the two in a good matchup. Tampa has been struggled against outside receivers, but there are a lot of options in Green Bay.

Curtis Samuel (WSH). He paced the Washington receiving group with a 25.8% target share in the two games before the bye, so there’s an argument he’s the best start of the bunch. While the Rams have a strong secondary, Washington passes at the third-highest rate over expectation, and the Commanders are 6.5-point underdogs indoors. He has upside, for sure, but there’s a degree of risk involved with someone who’s been held under 5.0 fantasy points in four of his past six games.

Tier 4: Sit if possible

Tee Higgins (CIN). He has finished with 5.1 and 8.2 fantasy points in two games with Jake Browning under center despite eclipsing a 70% snap rate in both outings. He’s tied for fourth on the team in target share (11.3%) over that span, making him difficult to trust against a Vikings defense that’s given up the third-fewest raw fantasy points per target to WRs since Week 6.

Marquise Brown (ARI). He has a tough matchup this week. Per NextGenStats, San Francisco plays zone at the ninth-highest rate and Brown has been held under 4.0 fantasy points in three of Kyler Murray’s first four starts. There just isn’t enough upside to justify his low floor this week.

Chris Godwin (TB). He had a season-high 37.9% target share last week, but he still extended his streak of single-digit fantasy outings to six games. Although Green Bay’s secondary is average at best, Godwin is unlikely to get that many targets again — and even if he does, he hasn’t proved capable of consistently delivering.

Jordan Addison (MIN). He hasn’t finished as a top-30 WR since Week 8 and is now on his fourth starting quarterback of the season. With Justin Jefferson trending up, Addison is at best the third option for a career-backup QB on the road. He’s an easy sit.

TIGHT END

Tier 1: Lineup locks

— Travis Kelce (KC)

— George Kittle (SF)

— T.J. Hockenson (MIN)

— Trey McBride (ARI)

— Evan Engram (JAX)

— Sam LaPorta (DET)

— Dalton Kincaid (BUF)

— Isaiah Likely (BAL)

— Jake Ferguson (DAL)

— David Njoku (CLE)

Tier 2: Probable starters

Cole Kmet (CHI). He finished as a TE1 for the fifth time in Justin Fields’ eight full games last week. In those eight games, Kmet is averaging 9.1 fantasy points and 45.1 yards per game while getting the second-highest target share (20.8%) on the team. For as good of a defense as the Browns have, they’ve given up the second-most adjusted fantasy points per target to tight ends. Continue to start him with confidence.

Dallas Goedert (PHI). He was on the field for 82.4% of snaps and had a 14.8% target share in his first game since Week 9. While Philly’s offense has struggled of late, Goedert has as much touchdown upside as anyone given the 25.75 implied team total. Seattle’s middle-of-the-pack against TEs, but it has let up the eighth-most yards per route run (YPRR) to the position.

Tier 3: On the fence

Kyle Pitts (ATL). He has run a route on 86.3% of drop-backs with a 21.9% target share over the past two weeks. Although he’s finished as the TE13 and TE6 over that span, I’m not totally sold this week. Carolina is top-10 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends, and Desmond Ridder has only eclipsed 201 passing yards once in six road starts.

Pat Freiermuth (PIT). He leads Pittsburgh with a 24.5% target share over the past three weeks. That hasn’t translated to consistent fantasy production, however, as he’s finished as the TE2, TE23, and TE23. Indy has let up the fourth-highest tight end target rate this season, but Freiermuth hasn’t been reliable enough to start with much confidence.

Logan Thomas (WSH). His snap rate dipped below 70% in Washington’s past two games, and his target share evaporated with it. Still, Washington is among the most pass-happy teams in the NFL, and this is a good matchup for tight ends. The Rams have given up by far the most adjusted fantasy points per target to the position, which at least gives Thomas some streaming appeal.

Tier 4: Sit if possible

Gerald Everett (LAC). He only has three top-12 finishes on the year, and that was with Justin Herbert. With Herbert out, there’s little reason to confidently play the Chargers tight end against a Raiders defense that held T.J. Hockenson in check last week.

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