Fantasy plays: Players to start and sit for NFL Week 13

The mega bye week is back.

Hopefully you didn’t get too comfortable having all 32 teams in action, because are six teams are off this week. That includes the Bills, Bears, Raiders, Vikings, Giants and Ravens.

Aside from New York (hang in there, Saquon Barkley), all of those teams have multiple players we’d typically lock into starting lineups.

Woof.

But don’t sweat. There are plenty of names to fill out those fantasy lineups as we hit the home stretch. You just have to know where to look.

That’s where this piece comes in.

Every week I list out every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers with the higher-tiered players deemed more start-worthy. For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to numberFire ’s projection model.

These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback — though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats.

Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.

All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

QUARTERBACKS

Tier 1: Lineup locks

— Jalen Hurts (PHI)

— Dak Prescott (DAL)

— Patrick Mahomes (KC)

— Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)

— C.J. Stroud (HOU)

— Justin Herbert (LAC)

— Brock Purdy (SF)

— Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

Tier 2: Probable starters

Kyler Murray (ARI). Through three starts, Kyler Murray has averaged just 11.6 passing fantasy points per game and had an EPA per drop-back (-0.24) on par with Bryce Young. That’s not great, but the rushing is glorious. He was limited to 2 yards last week, but had 33 and 51 rushing yards over the previous two outings and has scored in all three. The Steelers’ blitz-happy defense should aid Murray’s scrambling and keep him on the QB1 radar.

Sam Howell (WSH). Is Sam Howell matchup-proof? Howell finished with 18.3 points against Dallas’ vaunted defense, and he’s now gone under 16 fantasy points just twice in 12 games. That puts him in the starting conversation even against an improving Miami defense. Washington is a 9.5-point home underdog and the Commanders rank third in pass rate over expectation, so expect more volume in a potentially negative game script.

Jared Goff (DET). While Jared Goff has not looked great the past two weeks, he continues to rack up garbage-time numbers. With 18.2 fantasy points on Thanksgiving, Goff’s 17 passing fantasy points per game is tied with Justin Herbert for seventh in the NFL. His home/road splits are still concerning, but those should be mitigated playing on turf in New Orleans. The Saints are in the bottom half in adjusted fantasy points allowed per drop-back, so continue to ride this fantasy-friendly offense.

Russell Wilson (DEN). Another week, another sub-200-yard passing day for Russell Wilson. However, he still finished as the QB12 in fantasy because of 34 rushing yards and a rushing score. That marked the fifth time in seven games Wilson has eclipsed 30 yards on the ground. In addition to Wilson’s rushing, I expect his arm to be on full display in Week 13. Their matchup with Houston has the second-highest total (47.5) of the week, while the Texans are bottom 10 in success rate and adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Tier 3: On the fence

Derek Carr (NO). Even with New Orleans’ injuries piling up, Derek Carr is a capable quarterback streamer in a friendly home matchup. The Lions have allowed at least 21 fantasy points to four of their past five opposing QBs (and at least 26 to three of them). They’ve allowed the seventh-highest passing success rate and the seventh-most adjusted fantasy points per drop-back. Plus, Carr is a home underdog in a game with a moderately high (45.5) total. The floor should be there.

Jordan Love (GB). The Jordan Love experience is a rollercoaster, but there’s no denying its upward trajectory of late. Love is fresh off the best fantasy game of his career and has seven top-12 finishes in 11 weeks. That would make returning home to Lambeau a lot more appealing if it weren’t to face the Chiefs. KC has yet to give up a 20-point game to a quarterback, and they rank third in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position. There just isn’t much of a ceiling this week.

Baker Mayfield (TB). Baker Mayfield is just fine. He’s got enough upside to approach with 20 fantasy points and has displayed a solid enough floor where he won’t hurt you. The way to attack Carolina is on the ground, but Mayfield’s tossed multiple scores in four of his past five and has developed a nice red zone rapport with Mike Evans. With six quarterbacks on bye, Baker can be streamed in a pinch.

Gardner Minshew (IND). Speaking of streaming in a pinch, hello, Gardner Minshew. He survived Indy’s gauntlet of a first-half schedule and looked sharp coming out of the bye. Despite failing to throw a touchdown, he scored on the ground and managed 251 passing yards off 41 attempts. Indy flipped the script and ran all over Tennessee in an earlier matchup, but expect the Colts to put a bigger emphasis on the air attack against numberFire’s 27th-ranked adjusted pass defense.

Kenny Pickett (PIT). All it took was Matt Canada getting fired for me to talk about Kenny Pickett as a start-able fantasy QB. Pickett set season-best marks for passing yards (278) and completion rate (73%) last week — though he’s still thrown just one touchdown since Week 5. That limits his upside, but the floor is decent against a Cardinals defense that’s 31st in adjusted pass defense and has allowed the second-most adjusted fantasy points per drop-back.

Tier 4: Sit if possible

Matthew Stafford (LAR). Rejoice! Last week, Matthew Stafford threw for multiple scores for just the second time this season, yet none of his four found Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua. Funneling touchdowns to Tyler Higbee and running backs doesn’t instill a ton of confidence that Stafford’s touchdown woes are over, especially with Cleveland’s top-ranked pass defense coming to town. Only three QBs have cleared 16 fantasy points against the Browns, so I’d rather swing for upside elsewhere.

Geno Smith (SEA). Geno Smith struggled to 8.3 fantasy points in a home matchup with San Francisco, a game where he was sacked six times, so I can’t say I’m bullish on him in Dallas. Playing indoors should help, but this Seattle passing attack hasn’t shown the kind of juice where I see them keeping pace with Dallas. Per NextGenStats, the Cowboys are second in sack rate and third in EPA per drop-back, so I’m anticipating another difficult game for Smith.

RUNNING BACKS

Tier 1: Lineup locks

— Christian McCaffrey (SF)

— Alvin Kamara (NO)

— Tony Pollard (DAL)

— Travis Etienne (JAX)

— Kyren Williams (LAR)

— Bijan Robinson (ATL)

— Raheem Mostert (MIA)

— Austin Ekeler (LAC)

— Rachaad White (TB)

— Isiah Pacheco (KC)

— Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)

— David Montgomery (DET)

— Derrick Henry (TEN)

— D’Andre Swift (PHI)

— Javonte Williams (DEN)

— Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)

— Breece Hall (NYJ)

— Brian Robinson (WSH)

— Joe Mixon (CIN)

— Devin Singletary (HOU)

Tier 2: Probable starters

Zack Moss (IND). With Jonathan Taylor out, Zack Moss becomes a borderline must-start. From Weeks 2-8, Moss was the RB4 (16.7 points per game) while playing 66.7% of snaps, and he still ranks in the top 10 for rushing yards on the season. The matchup isn’t ideal — the Titans rank fifth in numberFire’s adjusted rush defense — but Indy’s 22.0-point implied team total gives Moss a nice ceiling to go along with his RB2 floor.

Jerome Ford (CLE). You can’t knock Jerome Ford’s consistency. In full-PPR leagues, Ford has had exactly 11.9 points in three straight weeks. In half-PPR, he’s been between 9.9 and 11.4 in four games in a row. Although his workload continues to fluctuate, Ford actually had his highest snap share (70%) of the season in Week 12. Averaging 20.6 adjusted opportunities in an expanding role, Ford is a high-floor RB2 against a middle-of-the-pack Rams run defense.

Jaylen Warren (PIT). The post-Matt Canada breakout didn’t come for Jaylen Warren last week. I’m not ready to jump ship. Warren had a near-50% snap share, three red zone rush attempts and 19 adjusted opportunities. There are a lot of options in Pittsburgh, but Warren is still the Steeler you want to start. Expect him to bounce back against a Cardinals front allowing the 13th-most adjusted fantasy points per carry and fourth-most per target to opposing RBs.

Najee Harris (PIT). Najee Harris is the RB11 since Pittsburgh’s Week 6 bye. He’s averaged 19.3 adjusted opportunities and two red zone rush attempts per game over that stretch. Harris benefits from the same soft matchup as Warren, albeit with a little less upside than his counterpart.

De’Von Achane/Jeff Wilson Jr. (MIA). Jeff Wilson proved to be fantasy-relevant with De’Von Achane out last week, and I think we’ll get more of the same this week. Miami has a week-high 29.5-point implied team total against a Commanders defense that’s allowed the sixth-most adjusted fantasy points per carry and the third-most per RB target, so you want a piece of this Miami backfield. Just pay attention to Achane’s status.

Tier 3: On the fence

Zach Charbonnet (SEA). Zach Charbonnet had 22 adjusted opportunities while playing 87% of snaps last week in the absence of Kenneth Walker III. Although he totaled just 7.8 points, that kind of workhorse role will usually lead to bigger games. That gives me some confidence going forward, but the matchup is tough enough that Charbonnet is not a must-start. Dallas is top 10 in fewest adjusted fantasy points allowed per carry, so starting him comes with tempered expectations.

AJ Dillon (GB). It’s pretty clear that A.J. Dillon doesn’t have a particularly high ceiling. The utilization is there, though. He had 20 adjusted opportunities last week and 22 the week prior. Although he totaled just 17.7 points across those two outings and despite the fact KC has been worse against the run than the pass, Dillon remains a respectable floor play.

Chuba Hubbard (CAR). Chuba Hubbard has hit double-digit fantasy points just twice this season — both the games he’s scored in. Relying on touchdowns to be fantasy-relevant makes him tough to trust on a struggling Carolina offense, especially against a Bucs defense that’s third in adjusted rush D. Still, he’s averaged 18.8 adjusted opportunities since Week 4, so there’s a decent floor if needed.

Antonio Gibson (WSH). I’m pretty bullish on Antonio Gibson this week. Gibson battled through injury on a short week to tie Brian Robinson with a 45.3% snap share on Thanksgiving. Gibson has run a route on 44.2% of drop-backs and had a 10.1% target share since Week 5 and with Washington continuing to throw more than 40 times per game, he’s got some sneaky value in a game where they’re nearly 10-point underdogs.

Tyjae Spears (TEN). After out-snapping Derrick Henry in Weeks 9 and 10, Tyjae Spears has reverted to his backup role in the past two games. Most concerning is his route rate, which is down to 37.5% in the past two weeks (compared to Henry’s 43.8%). Spears had his best game of the season against Indy in Week 5, but remains a dart-throw even with the Colts allowing the third-most adjusted fantasy points per carry.

Samaje Perine (DEN). Samaje Perine’s snap share dipped last week, but he found the end zone and now has double-digit fantasy points in consecutive weeks. There’s value in his pass-catching role against a Houston defense allowing the eighth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to RBs.

Tier 4: Sit if possible

James Conner (ARI). It’s been tough sledding for James Conner since he returned from IR, and now he has another running back to worry about. Conner out-snapped Michael Carter by just one snap last week, and Carter actually ran more routes. I’m not sure what that means going forward. I won’t be surprised if Arizona begins to move away from the 28-year-old down the stretch. I’m good to sit Conner against a Steelers defense that ranks fifth in RB rush success rate allowed.

Tyler Allgeier (ATL). Arthur Smith is finally leaning into Bijan Robinson, and that’s cratered Tyler Allgeier’s fantasy value. Allgier is still a good bet for double-digit carries, but if the red zone role is gone, I’m not sure where the fantasy production comes from.

Dameon Pierce (HOU). Dameon Pierce was out-snapped 47-11 by Devin Singletary in his return to action last week. Singletary has thrived as Houston’s lead back, leaving Pierce on fantasy benches until further notice.

Miles Sanders (CAR). Miles Sanders faces the same obstacles as Hubbard (struggling offense/bad matchup), but doesn’t get as much work as Hubbard does. He has just three red zone rush attempts since Week 5, so there’s no upside here.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Tier 1: Lineup locks

— Tyreek Hill (MIA)

— A.J. Brown (PHI)

— CeeDee Lamb (DAL)

— Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)

— Keenan Allen (LAC)

— Mike Evans (TB)

— Jaylen Waddle (MIA)

— Michael Pittman Jr. (IND)

— Brandon Aiyuk (SF)

— DeVonta Smith (PHI)

— Tank Dell (HOU)

— Chris Olave (NO) (injury)

— Nico Collins (HOU)

— Calvin Ridley (JAX)

— Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)

— Deebo Samuel (SF)

— Christian Kirk (JAX)

— Terry McLaurin (WSH)

— Cooper Kupp (LAR)

— D.K. Metcalf (SEA)

Tier 2: Probable starters

Puka Nacua (LAR). Has the Puka Nacua magic run its course? Perhaps, but the utilization is still stellar. Although Nacua has eclipsed double-digit points just once in his past four games, he’s had a team-leading 88.3% route rate and 24.4% target share over that span. The matchup is downright brutal this week — Cleveland is fifth in adjusted fantasy points allowed per target to WRs, but the usage suggests a bounce-back is imminent. He’s a floor play this week.

DeAndre Hopkins (TEN). DeAndre Hopkins has been quiet since his three-touchdown game in Week 8. He’s still getting a 25.2% target share over his past four games. Hopkins dominated Indy for eight receptions and 140 yards back in Week 5, and the Colts allow the eighth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to receivers, so I like him to rebound at home.

Courtland Sutton (DEN). Though he failed to catch a touchdown for just the third time this season, Courtland Sutton impressed with 61 yards against the Browns last week. He leads the Broncos with a 23.2% target share, 38% air yard share, and 55% end zone target share. With how efficiently Russell Wilson is playing, it’d be hard for me to leave Sutton out of lineups against a Texans defense that’s 25th in scheduled-adjusted pass defense.

Diontae Johnson (PIT). Another receiver with nice utilization, but a lack of fantasy production of late, Diontae Johnson is in a nice bounce-back spot against the Cardinals. Arizona is 31st in scheduled-adjusted pass defense and has let up the fourth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to WRs. Johnson’s had at least a 25% target share in five of his past six games, so he should remain a part of fantasy lineups in an improving Pittsburgh offense.

Marquise Brown (ARI). Marquise Brown had his first good game with Kyler Murray back, getting 6 of 12 targets (27.3% share) for 88 yards and an eye-popping 180.4 air yards. His arrow is firmly pointed up this week against the Steelers secondary that’s allowed the sixth-most yards per route run (YPRR) to opposing wideouts.

Josh Downs (IND). Josh Downs had 13 targets (32.5% share) in Indy’s first game off its bye. That included three red zone targets, and while he didn’t score, Downs will have better weeks ahead if this role holds. Tennessee is one of the best fantasy matchups for WRs — it ranks fourth in YPRR, third in target rate, and second in adjusted fantasy points per target — so Downs almost has to be in lineups.

Rashee Rice (KC). If I knew for sure that Rashee Rice was going to play close to 70% of snaps, I’d be all-in. He enjoyed a nice breakout last week, getting 20.7 points thanks to a staggering 31.3% target share. Anyone getting that kind of target share from Mahomes is well worth starting, but Justin Watson had a 28% share the week prior so I want to see it again before I’m fully sold on Rice as a weekly starter. He’s a high-upside WR3 in a heavy bye week.

Tier 3: On the fence

Garrett Wilson (NYJ). Same stuff, different quarterback. Garrett Wilson had a 27.8% target share in his first game with Tim Boyle, securing seven of 10 targets for 44 yards, a score, and 13.9 fantasy points. There’s always risk with Wilson given the QB play, and that’s especially true this week against Atlanta’s talented outside corners. The volume is there to warrant starting him — you have to live with a wide degree of variance.

Adam Thielen (CAR). After last week’s 0.7-point dud, Adam Thielen has finished outside the top 36 WRs three of the past four weeks. He’s down at WR44 since their bye, so there’s a chance that early season magic fizzled out. While this matchup is great — Tampa is 27th in adjusted pass defense — there’s a lot of uncertainty in a bad Panthers offense that just fired their head coach.

George Pickens (PIT). George Pickens caught just three passes last week, but his 58 yards were his most since Week 7. There are a options in Pittsburgh, and the offense still isn’t great. With that said, there’s enough big-play potential against the Arizona secondary to warrant starting Pickens. Just bear in mind his 16.9% target share over the past five games leaves his floor pretty low.

Demario Douglas (NE). If you’re in a full PPR league, Demario Douglas is a borderline must-start if he’s healthy enough to play this week. Douglas has caught at least five passes in four straight games, a span during which he’s had a 24.2% target share. A poor 5.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT) over that span has limited his upside, but the matchup is appealing this week. The Chargers have allowed the seventh-most adjusted fantasy points per target to WRs, so Douglas has a nice ceiling.

Curtis Samuel (WSH). Curtis Samuel had nine receptions and 100 yards last week, posting a season-best single-game target share of 27.3% in the process. There’s tons of garbage-time potential for Washington this week, and Samuel should be one of the main beneficiaries considering Miami’s strength is on the outside, not in the slot (where Samuel lines up 72% of the time, per PFF).

Chris Godwin (TB). It’s been a quiet month for Chris Godwin. He hasn’t eclipsed 7.5 fantasy points since Week 8 and still has just one touchdown this season. Still, he’s running essentially the same number of routes as Mike Evans over that span, but a 19.7% target share and 15.4% red zone share have really capped his upside. Carolina’s secondary has been decent, but the utilization still makes Godwin a defendable start.

Tyler Lockett (SEA). The production varies, but Tyler Lockett continues to enjoy superb utilization. He’s had at least 18% of Seattle’s targets in every game since Week 2 and just had a season-high 97% route rate. Dallas is a tough matchup for receivers, though there’s a good chance the Seahawks (as nine-point underdogs) get down early and have to live through the air. Lockett has upside.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA). On one hand, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been held under six fantasy points in each of the past two weeks. On the other hand, Smith-Njigba just had the best route rate (90.9%) of his career. The rookie is a big play waiting to happen and — like Lockett — has garbage-time upside in a game Seattle is expected to lose by nearly double digits.

Christian Watson (GB). Christian Watson had 94 yards and a touchdown against Detroit, finishing as the WR10 with a season-best 17.9 points. That performance gives me a bit more confidence in throwing Watson out there. With that said, it’s hard to get too excited this week considering the Chiefs rank fifth in scheduled-adjusted pass defense and third in adjusted fantasy points allowed per target to WRs.

Jayden Reed (GB). Jayden Reed continues to flash a ton of fantasy upside, eclipsing double-digit points last week for the fourth time in five games. Reed led Green Bay with a 26.7% target share in that one and has totaled 83 rushing yards across his past four games. He’s one of our top waiver wire targets for a reason. If you’re in a pinch, Reed is serviceable this week despite the tough matchup.

Brandin Cooks (DAL). Brandin Cooks has really enjoyed Dak Prescott’s elite play and has had at least 12 points in four of six games. His target share fluctuates, but there’s upside this week against a Seahawks defense that’s given up the 13th-most adjusted fantasy points per target to opposing wideouts.

Jahan Dotson (WSH). There’s a ton of variance with Jahan Dotson. He has a pair of top-10 finishes on the year to go with a pair of zero-point outings. That makes him hard to trust, but there’s upside in what could be the highest-scoring game of the week. He’s the definition of a dart throw.

Tier 4: Sit if possible

Drake London (ATL). Drake London faces the Jets — the league leaders in fewest adjusted fantasy points per target allowed to WRs — on the road, where he’s averaged just 7.2 points per game. Desmond Ridder has struggled away from home. His EPA per drop-back on the road is lower than Zach Wilson’s, PJ Walker’s and Tommy DeVito’s season-long marks. You’re better off streaming someone from the waiver wire.

Amari Cooper (CLE). It was hard to get excited about Amari Cooper with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, and that was before Thompson-Robinson and Cooper left Week 12 with injuries. Even if both are cleared for Sunday, I don’t see much upside on the road against a Rams secondary allowing the sixth-fewest adjusted fantasy points per target to opposing WRs, especially given the nagging tendencies of rib injuries.

Tee Higgins (CIN). Assuming Tee Higgins (hamstring) is even active on Sunday, there’s still too much risk to start him this week. Although Jake Browning was serviceable in his first start, I find it hard to believe he can support two fantasy-relevant WRs given Higgins’ prior inconsistencies with Joe Burrow. Jacksonville isn’t a daunting matchup, but they’ve given up the seventh-lowest target rate to receivers. That’s a tough sell given the number of pass catchers in Cincy’s offense.

Jerry Jeudy (DEN). Where is the upside with Jerry Jeudy? Jeudy has just two games with double-digit points and hasn’t finished with more than 60 yards just once since Week 3. The Texans have let the sixth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to WRs, but they’re allowing the fourth-lowest target rate to the position since Week 8. Denver’s averaged the second-fewest plays per game and had the fifth-lowest pass rate over expectation. I don’t see the path to fantasy relevance.

TIGHT END

Tier 1: Lineup locks

— Travis Kelce (KC)

— Sam LaPorta (DET)

— Trey McBride (ARI)

— George Kittle (SF)

— Evan Engram (JAX)

— Dalton Schultz (HOU)

— Jake Ferguson (DAL)

— David Njoku (CLE)

Tier 2: Probable starters

Pat Freiermuth (PIT). In his second game off injured reserve, Pat Freiermuth flashed what made him such a high fantasy pick before the season. He turned a career-high 34.4% target share into nine receptions and 120 yards, 47 of which came after the catch. That kind of volume doesn't happen every game, so Freiermuth almost has to be started with a number of tight ends on bye.

Taysom Hill (NO). There’s a chance Taysom Hill and Juwan Johnson are New Orleans’ top two pass catchers this week with Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Michael Thomas all banged up. That would hurt Hill’s chances of scoring given the overall downgrade to the offense, but I wouldn’t be shocked to have his snap share creep over 50% for the first time since Week 7. Hill has immense upside against a flailing Detroit defense.

Juwan Johnson (NO). It’s easier to project Juwan Johnson’s role in this offense than Hill’s. He had an 18.9% target share last week and has hovered around a 75% snap share for three straight games. With a potentially big workload this week, Johnson is a top tight end streamer and someone you can plug and play with confidence.

Dallas Goedert (PHI). Dallas Goedert has a chance to play, and if he does, it’ll be hard not to start him. San Francisco is by far the most difficult tight end matchup by adjusted fantasy points per target, but Goedert was hovering around a 20% target share before he went out. Give me a proven commodity on a top offense, even if he’s limited.

Tier 3: On the fence

Logan Thomas (WSH). Logan Thomas failed to notch 30 yards for just the third time all season last week. Despite that, he remains in the starting conversation ahead of Washington’s bout with Miami. The Dolphins are an average matchup for tight ends and Thomas has averaged 11.6 points per game at home this season. He’s a fine play.

Gerald Everett (LAC). It was encouraging to see Gerald Everett play 63.6% of snaps last week after missing the game prior. Everett had a 9.8% target share, but he caught all four targets for 43 yards and a score. New England has actually done a great job against tight ends, but the Chargers are desperate for playmakers, making Everett a decent fill-in.

Tucker Kraft (GB). Tucker Kraft scored in his first game as the starter. He had only two targets. He did, however, run a ton of routes (81.3% route rate) and almost never left the field (96.3% snap rate). Still, he’s nothing more than a dart throw against KC’s elite defense.

Tier 4: Sit if possible

Tyler Higbee (LAR). I’d advise against chasing Tyler Higbee’s two-touchdown game. Even with him finishing as the TE1 last week, Higbee still had just a 16.1% target share and had scored more than three points only once in the previous six games. Cleveland’s daunting pass defense is up next. While the Browns have been vulnerable to opposing tight ends, the utilization doesn’t support starting him.

Kyle Pitts (ATL). Kyle Pitts hasn’t surpassed double-digit points since Week 6, and his route participation hit a season-low (57.1%) last week. No one knows what coach Arthur Smith is doing with his pass catchers, so there’s no reason to start Pitts on the road against a stellar Jets secondary.

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