Week 7 Fantasy Usage Model: Gronk Emerged

Hayden Winks
·16 min read



“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you scroll down, you’ll see raw air yards, team share data, and RB touches while leading/trailing. This is basically all of the data I use to make my sit/start decisions. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks).

Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 7

1. Tyler Boyd (vs. CLE)

2. Cooper Kupp (vs. CHI)

3. Chris Godwin (@ LV)

4. Jerry Jeudy (vs. KC)

5. T.J. Hockenson (@ ATL)

Fantasy Usage Model - WRs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 3-6. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player

Fantasy Usage

PPR Per Game

Context

Allen Robinson

WR1 (20.0)

WR9 (20.2)

12 targets P/G (1st) in last 4 weeks.

Julio Jones

WR2 (19.4)

WR1 (33.7)

Removed Wks 2-5. Balled in Wk 6.

Amari Cooper

WR3 (18.3)

WR13 (18.5)

WR1 usage with Andy but volatile now.

Keenan Allen

WR4 (18.1)

WR12 (19.1)

WR1 usage when back is healthy.

Jamison Crowder

WR5 (17.4)

WR15 (18.3)

11 targets, 33% share in last 4 weeks.

D.J. Chark

WR6 (17.2)

WR27 (15.2)

113 air yards P/G (5th) in last 4 weeks.

Terry McLaurin

WR7 (16.9)

WR34 (13.6)

10.3 targets P/G in last 4. Volatile WR2.

DK Metcalf

WR8 (16.6)

WR7 (21.0)

Air yards leader in last 4 weeks. WR1.

Emmanuel Sanders

WR9 (16.6)

WR14 (18.4)

Emerged, but MT back. No-floor WR4.

Adam Thielen

WR10 (16.3)

WR8 (20.5)

31% target share in last 4. WR1/2.

Stefon Diggs

WR11 (15.9)

WR17 (17.4)

Talent + 9.3 targets P/G = WR1/2.

Calvin Ridley

WR12 (15.6)

WR32 (14.3)

Top-5 WR days over? Still a WR1/2.

Travis Fulgham

WR13 (15.5)

WR6 (21.5)

'X WR' for PHI. WR2/3 if no DJ, AJ, JR.

A.J. Brown

WR14 (15.3)

WR4 (21.9)

Odd games led to WR1/2 usage. WR2.

CeeDee Lamb

WR15 (15.2)

WR16 (17.7)

At least 10.3 xFPs in all. WR2 from slot.

Tyler Boyd

WR16 (14.7)

WR28 (15.0)

21% target share on pass-heavy team.

Breshad Perriman

WR17 (14.5)

WR58 (10.2)

Removed Wks 2-5. WR2 usage Wk 6.

Tee Higgins

WR18 (14.5)

WR23 (15.7)

112 air yards P/G (7th) in last 4 weeks.

DeAndre Hopkins

WR19 (14.4)

WR18 (17.3)

xFPs P/G: pre-ankle (19.8), post (12.4).

Robby Anderson

WR20 (14.3)

WR29 (14.9)

Last 4 wks targets: RA (8.5), DJM (6.5).

Davante Adams

WR21 (14.3)

WR42 (12.1)

32.1 & 14.3 xFPs in two healthy games.

Will Fuller

WR22 (14.2)

WR11 (19.6)

113 air yards P/G (6th) in last 4 weeks.

Cooper Kupp

WR23 (13.9)

WR30 (14.9)

WR2/3 usage. Career-low 8.3 YPT.

Chase Claypool

WR24 (13.8)

WR5 (21.7)

Best PIT WR on WR2/3 usage. DJ back?

Sammy Watkins

WR25 (13.7)

WR54 (10.8)

Removed Wks 5-6. Sammy > Mecole.

Kenny Golladay

WR26 (13.7)

WR21 (16.1)

WR2/3 usage in up-and-down offense.

Tyler Lockett

WR27 (13.7)

WR20 (17.1)

23% target share in last 4. Upside WR2.

Odell Beckham

WR28 (13.6)

WR22 (15.9)

Inconsistent but strong WR3 usage.

Marquise Brown

WR29 (13.4)

WR49 (11.4)

Boom-bust WR3. 3rd in air yards last 4.

Darius Slayton

WR30 (13.2)

WR41 (12.2)

WR3 usage, but Shepard back? Sell.

Mike Williams

WR31 (12.9)

WR2 (26.4)

18.1 aDOT. Herbert can throw deep.

Chris Godwin

WR32 (12.6)

WR35 (13.6)

Week 6 targets: CG (8), ME (2). WR2.

Robert Woods

WR33 (12.4)

WR24 (15.6)

WR3 usage on 24% target share.

Brandin Cooks

WR34 (12.0)

WR31 (14.3)

WR3 usage in last 4 after slow start.

Justin Jefferson

WR35 (11.9)

WR3 (21.9)

Baller (14.9 YPT) on WR3 usage.

Adam Humphries

WR36 (11.9)

WR37 (13.3)

WR4 usage but now Davis returns.

Brandon Aiyuk

WR37 (11.6)

WR39 (12.8)

9.8 & 7.0 xFPs with Deebo back. WR5.

A.J. Green

WR38 (11.4)

WR65 (9.2)

Iffy WR on WR3/4 usage. 14% targets.

Mike Evans

WR39 (11.4)

WR33 (14.1)

Playing injured. Fewer targets. WR2/3.

Tim Patrick

WR40 (11.3)

WR19 (17.2)

16.5 aDOT. Deep-threat WR5. Fant?

Laviska Shenault

WR41 (11.3)

WR56 (10.4)

WR4 usage in gadget role. Bench hold.

Deebo Samuel

WR42 (11.2)

WR51 (11.1)

12.5 & 10.0 xFPs in two healthy games.

Greg Ward

WR43 (11.1)

WR50 (11.2)

Forgettable low-aDOT (5.5) slot. WR5.

Keelan Cole

WR44 (11.0)

WR44 (12.0)

Outlier 184 air yards in Week 6. WR5.

Jerry Jeudy

WR45 (10.9)

WR59 (9.9)

17% target share in last 4. Slot WR4.

D.J. Moore

WR46 (10.8)

WR40 (12.8)

Team-high 12.6 aDOT as a WR3.

Michael Gallup

WR47 (10.8)

WR47 (11.6)

12% target share in last 4. Big-play WR4.

Cole Beasley

WR48 (10.6)

WR36 (13.5)

WR4/5 usage. Low-aDOT (8.0) WR.

DeVante Parker

WR49 (10.4)

WR38 (13.1)

20% target share in last 4. Upside WR3.

Tyreek Hill

WR50 (10.2)

WR26 (15.4)

Defenses playing differently vs. KC.

Zach Pascal

WR51 (10.2)

WR73 (8.3)

5.3 high value targets P/G in last 4.

Hunter Renfrow

WR52 (10.1)

WR43 (12.1)

Likely No. 3 target with Ruggs back.

Julian Edelman

WR53 (10.0)

WR104 (4.5)

14.0 xFPs P/G with Cam but unhealthy.

Jeff Smith

WR54 (9.9)

WR90 (5.6)

Had 6.3 xFPs with Perriman back.

James Washington

WR55 (9.8)

WR57 (10.3)

Goes to bench when Diontae returns.

Curtis Samuel

WR56 (9.6)

WR60 (9.5)

13% target share as a gadget project.

Jarvis Landry

WR57 (9.6)

WR62 (9.3)

Clearly injured. 22% targets on run team.

T.Y. Hilton

WR58 (9.4)

WR77 (7.3)

Only 11% of targets are 20+ air yards.

Cedrick Wilson

WR59 (9.4)

WR52 (10.8)

Targets P/G in last 4: MG (6), CW (5).

Christian Kirk

WR60 (9.1)

WR25 (15.4)

Deep-threat WR4 on 15% target share.

Darnell Mooney

WR61 (8.9)

WR86 (6.0)

Plays like a rookie on WR6 usage.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR62 (8.9)

WR93 (5.4)

18.7 aDOT means boom-bust. WR6.

Corey Davis

WR63 (8.8)

WR45 (11.9)

WR5 usage but now AJB is healthy.

N'Keal Harry

WR64 (8.6)

WR89 (5.6)

11% target share. Slow feet don't eat.

Randall Cobb

WR65 (8.6)

WR46 (11.6)

6.9 aDOT as slot receiver. WR6.

Damiere Byrd

WR66 (8.4)

WR70 (8.5)

Cam's deep threat on WR6 usage.

Olamide Zaccheaus

WR67 (8.3)

WR80 (6.8)

Benched with Julio healthy.

KJ Hamler

WR68 (8.0)

WR88 (5.8)

Removed Weeks 3-6. Big-play WR6.

Josh Reynolds

WR69 (7.9)

WR68 (8.7)

Rams' deep threat (13.1 aDOT). WR6.

Tre'Quan Smith

WR70 (7.9)

WR53 (10.8)

12% target share in last 4 w/o MT.

Kendrick Bourne

WR71 (7.7)

WR71 (8.5)

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR72 (7.5)

WR76 (7.9)

PIT rushing more + career-low aDOT.

Chris Conley

WR73 (7.4)

WR87 (5.8)

Anthony Miller

WR74 (7.4)

WR64 (9.2)

Usage still trending down. Droppable.

Russell Gage

WR75 (7.3)

WR85 (6.0)

PPR WR6. Needs wacky game script.

Isaiah Wright

WR76 (7.3)

WR91 (5.5)

John Brown

WR77 (7.3)

WR110 (4.1)

Sub-10.0 xFPs in 3 unhealthy games.

Golden Tate

WR78 (7.1)

WR81 (6.7)

14% target share without Shepard.

Marcus Johnson

WR79 (6.9)

WR63 (9.3)

Team-high 148 air yards Week 6. WR5.

Gabriel Davis

WR80 (6.8)

WR69 (8.6)

Brown backup & No. 4 WR in BUF.

Dontrelle Inman

WR81 (6.8)

WR66 (9.0)

Preston Williams

WR82 (6.8)

WR55 (10.4)

15.0 aDOT as low-volume deep threat.

Larry Fitzgerald

WR83 (6.7)

WR111 (4.0)

Laughable 5.6 aDOT in slot. Just bad.

John Hightower

WR84 (6.6)

WR106 (4.5)

Tyler Johnson

WR85 (6.3)

WR67 (8.9)

Isaiah Ford

WR86 (6.1)

WR109 (4.1)

8.1 aDOT as slot man. Off radar.

DeSean Jackson

WR87 (5.9)

WR117 (3.1)

Chris Hogan

WR88 (5.8)

WR120 (2.8)

Lawrence Cager

WR89 (5.8)

WR122 (2.8)

Scotty Miller

WR90 (5.7)

WR74 (8.1)

Marvin Jones

WR91 (5.6)

WR108 (4.3)

Air yards in last 4: Jones (39), Hall (44).

Andy Isabella

WR92 (5.5)

WR78 (6.9)

16.7 aDOT as situational deep target.

Nelson Agholor

WR93 (5.5)

WR48 (11.4)

Mecole Hardman

WR94 (5.5)

WR61 (9.5)

Not a true NFL WR yet. Gadget only.

Marquez Callaway

WR95 (5.4)

WR99 (5.0)

Kalif Raymond

WR96 (5.3)

WR72 (8.4)

Collin Johnson

WR97 (5.2)

WR107 (4.4)

Zay Jones

WR98 (5.2)

WR101 (4.9)

Danny Amendola

WR99 (5.1)

WR95 (5.2)

Braxton Berrios

WR100 (5.1)

WR97 (5.1)

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Fantasy Usage Model - TEs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 3-6. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player

Fantasy Usage

PPR Per Game

Context

George Kittle

TE1 (18.1)

TE1 (24.1)

Value as a top-10 fantasy asset.

Travis Kelce

TE2 (14.7)

TE3 (18.3)

Value as a top-10 fantasy asset.

Darren Waller

TE3 (14.7)

TE6 (12.2)

22% target share. Faced tough sched.

Jonnu Smith

TE4 (14.0)

TE4 (16.1)

Removed Wk 6. TE1 usage if healthy.

Jimmy Graham

TE5 (13.1)

TE5 (13.0)

1.7 red zone targets P/G means TE1/2.

Zach Ertz

TE6 (13.1)

TE26 (7.0)

Injured reserve. Pick up Goedert.

T.J. Hockenson

TE7 (12.8)

TE15 (9.3)

5.3 targets P/G in last 4 are 2nd in DET.

Noah Fant

TE8 (12.5)

TE16 (9.1)

Elite prospect + TE1 usage if healthy.

Rob Gronkowski

TE9 (11.6)

TE9 (10.4)

TE1/2 usage since no OJH. Still slow.

Mark Andrews

TE10 (11.0)

TE7 (11.9)

Last 4 target share: MB 28%, MA 22%.

Austin Hooper

TE11 (10.9)

TE10 (10.2)

Tied with Odell for targets in last 4.

Trey Burton

TE12 (10.1)

TE8 (11.3)

TE1 usage without MAC. TE1/2 option.

Eric Ebron

TE13 (9.6)

TE13 (9.5)

TE1/2 usage as PIT red zone option.

Robert Tonyan

TE14 (9.2)

TE2 (18.4)

TD threat, but TE2 usage with Adams.

Hunter Henry

TE15 (9.2)

TE14 (9.4)

TE1/2 usage with Herbert. 18% targets.

Greg Olsen

TE16 (8.9)

TE21 (7.5)

Old but TE2 usage in elite offense.

Dalton Schultz

TE17 (8.9)

TE17 (8.8)

Doubt Andy supports the No. 5 target.

Anthony Firkser

TE18 (8.8)

TE11 (10.1)

Season-high usage w/o Jonnu leaving.

Evan Engram

TE19 (8.5)

TE23 (7.3)

5.0 targets P/G in last 4. NYG wasting.

Hayden Hurst

TE20 (8.1)

TE18 (8.7)

Top-5 in routes but 13% target share.

Logan Thomas

TE21 (7.9)

TE31 (5.9)

TE2 usage on top-3 TE routes. Iffy TE2.

Tyler Eifert

TE22 (7.5)

TE57 (3.0)

Doing nothing with TE2/3 usage.

Mike Gesicki

TE23 (7.4)

TE27 (6.6)

TE2 usage recently. Upside TE1/2 still.

Jesse James

TE24 (6.0)

TE33 (5.7)

Jared Cook

TE25 (6.0)

TE19 (8.7)

Removed Week 4. Needs TDs. MT back.

Darren Fells

TE26 (5.9)

TE12 (9.6)

xFPs P/G: With Akins (8.1), w/out (4.4).

Dawson Knox

TE27 (5.5)

TE56 (3.1)

4.0 to 7.0 xFPs in healthy games. TE3.

Tyler Kroft

TE28 (5.5)

TE36 (5.6)

Knox backup as forgettable TE3.

Irv Smith

TE29 (5.3)

TE38 (5.0)

xFPs: Weeks 1-4 (2.5), Wks 5-6 (9.4).

Mo Alie-Cox

TE30 (5.2)

TE22 (7.4)

Kyle Rudolph

TE31 (5.1)

TE32 (5.9)

Week 6 routes: KR (26), Irv (34).

Drew Sample

TE32 (4.7)

TE52 (3.3)

Gerald Everett

TE33 (4.7)

TE20 (8.1)

Week 6 routes: GE (18), Higbee (18).

Tyler Higbee

TE34 (4.6)

TE34 (5.7)

TE3 usage while LAR goes run-heavy.

Jordan Akins

TE35 (4.5)

TE29 (6.2)

Removed Weeks 5-6. "Starter" in HOU.

Fantasy Usage Model - RBs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 3-6. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player

Fantasy Usage

PPR Per Game

Context

Mike Davis

RB1 (24.5)

RB4 (22.2)

Bellcow in all game scripts. Strong RB1.

Alvin Kamara

RB2 (23.0)

RB2 (28.5)

The No. 1 overall fantasy asset.

Ezekiel Elliott

RB3 (22.7)

RB6 (19.5)

Fumbles, OL are problems. Still top-4.

Derrick Henry

RB4 (22.5)

RB1 (28.9)

Boom-bust RB1. Not playing 3rd downs.

Joe Mixon

RB5 (21.6)

RB5 (20.0)

Passing down usage still up. Top-8 RB.

Myles Gaskin

RB6 (21.1)

RB17 (15.1)

RB1 usage. Howard not even playing.

Ronald Jones

RB7 (20.4)

RB11 (17.4)

All 25 touches on 1st/2nd down. RB2.

Aaron Jones

RB8 (19.6)

RB10 (17.6)

Mid-range RB1 with Adams back.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB9 (19.2)

RB15 (15.6)

RB1 usage before Bell. RB2 with?

Dalvin Cook

RB10 (18.5)

RB3 (25.5)

Due back Week 8 after the bye.

David Montgomery

RB11 (18.5)

RB28 (12.2)

xFPs: With Cohen (11.4), without (18.5).

James Conner

RB12 (17.3)

RB7 (19.1)

RB1 usage as PIT bellcow.

David Johnson

RB13 (16.9)

RB26 (12.5)

More Wk 6 routes (32) than expected.

Josh Jacobs

RB14 (16.7)

RB19 (14.7)

Touch share: Trailing (21%), leading (50%).

Melvin Gordon

RB15 (16.6)

RB13 (16.8)

RB2 usage, but Lindsay is back. RB3.

Chris Carson

RB16 (16.5)

RB8 (18.5)

RB1/2 usage on career-high receiving.

James Robinson

RB17 (16.1)

RB9 (18.2)

Touch share: Trailing (24%), leading (40%).

Darrell Henderson

RB18 (16.0)

RB23 (13.6)

All 14 touches on 1st/2nd down. RB2/3.

Todd Gurley

RB19 (15.3)

RB12 (17.3)

RB2 usage. ATL offense improving.

James White

RB20 (15.2)

RB21 (14.1)

Handled all 3rd-down RB touches. RB3.

Kareem Hunt

RB21 (15.1)

RB18 (14.9)

3-down RB. Tough Week 6 matchup.

Miles Sanders

RB22 (15.0)

RB14 (16.6)

19.2 xFPs P/G in last 4 healthy games.

Devonta Freeman

RB23 (15.0)

RB31 (11.4)

20 Week 6 touches as bellcow. RB2/3.

Kenyan Drake

RB24 (14.9)

RB24 (13.5)

Big Week 6 but only 1 target P/G. RB2.

Antonio Gibson

RB25 (14.4)

RB20 (14.4)

All 14 touches on 1st/2nd down. RB2/3.

Phillip Lindsay

RB26 (14.3)

RB37 (10.1)

All 23 touches on 1st/2nd down. RB3.

Devin Singletary

RB27 (13.1)

RB33 (11.1)

RB3 who needs positive game scripts.

Rex Burkhead

RB28 (13.0)

RB22 (14.1)

Splitting 1st/2nd-down role with Harris.

Jonathan Taylor

RB29 (12.9)

RB25 (13.3)

Pass Situation Targets: JT (2), NH (4).

Adrian Peterson

RB30 (12.5)

RB36 (10.6)

Doubt AP holds RB3 value with Swift.

Jerick McKinnon

RB31 (12.0)

RB30 (11.7)

16.2 & 18.0 xFPs without Mostert. RB2.

Raheem Mostert

RB32 (11.9)

RB27 (12.3)

Sadly placed on injured reserve.

J.D. McKissic

RB33 (11.5)

RB32 (11.3)

Pass Situation Targets: JM (5), AG (1).

D'Andre Swift

RB34 (11.3)

RB16 (15.1)

Pass-down RB w bellcow upside. RB2/3.

Nyheim Hines

RB35 (11.1)

RB45 (7.3)

Even passing splits with JT. PPR RB3.

Justin Jackson

RB36 (10.2)

RB38 (9.3)

Started, ran more Week 5 routes. RB3.

Alexander Mattison

RB37 (10.0)

RB43 (7.8)

Chase Edmonds

RB38 (9.9)

RB34 (11.1)

4.0 targets P/G, but insurance only.

Jamaal Williams

RB39 (9.9)

RB41 (8.2)

Season-low 3.4 xFPs with Adams back.

Frank Gore

RB40 (9.3)

RB48 (6.5)

Please don't.

Malcolm Brown

RB41 (9.3)

RB55 (5.3)

Passing-down back. Slow RB4.

Latavius Murray

RB42 (8.9)

RB29 (12.2)

High-end insurance RB only.

Le'Veon Bell

RB43 (8.6)

RB44 (7.7)

Not signed to start. Maybe goal line?

Leonard Fournette

RB44 (8.1)

RB63 (4.2)

Ankle injury should be improving now.

Jalen Richard

RB45 (8.0)

RB56 (5.3)

PPR RB5 as LV passing-down back.

Brian Hill

RB46 (7.9)

RB42 (8.0)

The insurance to Gurley.

Joshua Kelley

RB47 (7.9)

RB50 (6.1)

No. 2 as short-yardage grinder. RB4.

Jeff Wilson

RB48 (7.8)

RB39 (9.2)

Jeremy McNichols

RB49 (7.1)

RB60 (4.6)

TEN third-down RB with Evans hurt.

J.K. Dobbins

RB50 (7.1)

RB49 (6.1)

Passing down RB. Maybe more w/o MI.

Mark Ingram

RB57 (6.2)

RB54 (5.4)

Likely missing time with ankle injury.

Ke'Shawn Vaughn

RB51 (6.6)

RB52 (5.8)

100% Week 6 touches in garbage time.

Duke Johnson

RB52 (6.5)

RB64 (4.2)

Week 6 routes: David (32), Duke (11).

Kalen Ballage

RB53 (6.5)

RB47 (6.7)

Benny Snell

RB54 (6.5)

RB66 (4.0)

86% Week 6 touches in garbage time.

Tony Pollard

RB55 (6.4)

RB53 (5.6)

Gus Edwards

RB56 (6.3)

RB59 (4.7)

Pure runner. RB3 appeal if Ingram out.

Damien Harris

RB58 (6.1)

RB46 (7.2)

Splitting 1st/2nd-down role with Rex.

Chris Thompson

RB59 (5.9)

RB57 (5.1)

Darrel Williams

RB60 (5.8)

RB35 (11.1)

The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 7

Part 1: High Value RB Touches & Game Script (Monday)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks