How far will Kentucky go in the NCAA Tournament? Experts give us their predictions.
It’s been eight years since Kentucky last made it to a Final Four and 11 years since the Wildcats won the lone national championship of the John Calipari era.
Will this be the NCAA Tournament that supplies UK with another banner for the Rupp Arena rafters?
Back in the fall, it sure looked like this bunch of Wildcats might be the group to end Kentucky’s drought. UK started the season ranked No. 4 in the AP Top 25 poll, but the Cats’ national stock dropped rather quickly as the losses mounted and injury issues piled up and lingered.
Calipari’s team righted the ship enough to move from the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble a month ago to a 6 seed in the March Madness bracket, but the Wildcats are still a long shot to make a deep run. The latest odds from Caesars’ sportsbook have Kentucky as a 40-1 shot to win it all and a 9-1 bet to make the Final Four.
UK begins play at 7:10 p.m. Friday on CBS against 11-seeded Providence, and the Wildcats are a four-point favorite in that game.
What do the experts think about Kentucky’s chances?
The Herald-Leader asked more than 30 reporters — both in Kentucky and nationally — for their Final Four predictions this week. In addition to those picks, a second (optional) question: How far will the Wildcats go in the NCAA Tournament?
There were a total of 30 responses — 18 from those who cover UK regularly, six who cover college basketball nationally and six who cover another team in the tournament — on the Kentucky question.
Starting with the bad vibes for the Wildcats: Four respondents think UK will be upset by Providence in the first round of the tournament. Somewhat notably, only one of the 12 who don’t cover Kentucky picked the Cats to get beat by the Friars. That was UConn beat writer David Borges, who obviously knows the Big East well and foresees a “Bryce Hopkins revenge game” on Friday night. (Hopkins played at UK last season before transferring to Providence and becoming a star in his first year with the team.)
Some who have covered Kentucky closely this season noted that Providence has a highly efficient offense — No. 16 in the KenPom ratings — and such teams have given UK problems this season. A recipe for a first-round upset.
A total of nine respondents have Kentucky losing in the second round of the tournament, where the Cats would most likely meet 3-seeded Kansas State, which has 14-seeded Montana State in the first round. Five of those who picked UK to lose in the round of 32 are from outside the state.
The most popular answer: Kentucky wins two games in Greensboro, N.C., this week and makes it to Madison Square Garden in New York, where the East Regional will be played.
In all, 17 of the 30 respondents have the Cats making it to MSG. But 14 have them losing their first game there. Nearly all of those mentioned 2-seeded Marquette — the most likely opponent in a Sweet 16 game — as the team that will oust Kentucky from the NCAA Tournament.
Several noted UK’s ongoing injury problems as a hindrance to a sustained run in March Madness, and Marquette’s offensive style — heavy on ball screens, among other potential matchup issues for the Cats — was also mentioned multiple times.
The Sporting News’ Mike DeCourcy was among those who put UK in a Sweet 16 game with Marquette — pending the health of freshman point guard Cason Wallace — but he sees the run ending there.
“I could not see them coping well with Marquette’s elite ball-screen offense in a potential Sweet 16 game,” DeCourcy said. “Tyler Kolek is the best guard in the nation in that scenario, and Oso Ighodaro reads, moves and makes decisions like a big man with a point guard’s brain.”
Marquette (28-6) won the Big East by two games and then beat highly touted UConn and Xavier in back-to-back games to take the league tournament last week.
A UK loss to Marquette was the most common tournament prediction, by a pretty good margin.
Three respondents, however, think the Wildcats will go further in the bracket. Darrell Bird of the Cats’ Pause, Ryan Black of the Courier Journal and Mitch Brown of Fox 56 all have Kentucky advancing to the Elite Eight. Though none of that trio — all on the UK beat this season — has the Wildcats making the Final Four. (Memphis, Purdue and Duke were their picks, respectively, to come out of the East Regional.)
“How sweet would it be to see Kentucky and Duke paired up in the Elite Eight exactly 25 years after the epic battle in 1998?” Bird said. “But I suspect Memphis’ speed and athleticism are too much for both blue bloods. The 8-seeded Tigers appear to be this year’s North Carolina — catching fire at the perfect time. But taking down Providence, K-State and Marquette would be quite a feat for this UK team.”
Quite a feat, indeed, especially given where Kentucky’s season was just a few weeks ago.
But, unless all 30 of our respondents are wrong, the Cats won’t be hanging another banner in 2023.
Kentucky predictions
Lose in first round: David Borges (New Haven Register), Cameron Drummond (Herald-Leader), Cole Parke (Kentucky Kernel), Hunter Shelton (SI Now).
Lose in round of 32: John Clay (Herald-Leader), Luke DeCock (Raleigh News & Observer), Aaron Gershon (Cats’ Pause), Bob Holt (Arkansas Democrat-Gazette), Matt Jones (Kentucky Sports Radio), Blair Kerkhoff (Kansas City Star), Jim Meehan (Spokesman-Review), Matt Stahl (Columbia Daily Tribune), Larry Vaught (Vaught’s Views).
Lose in Sweet 16: Nicole Auerbach (The Athletic), Jeff Borzello (ESPN), Mike DeCourcy (Sporting News), Jeff Drummond (Cats Illustrated), Lee K. Howard (WKYT-27), Mark Mathis (Owensboro Messenger-Inquirer), Matt Norlander (CBS Sports), Krysten Peek (Yahoo Sports), Jeff Piecoro (WTVQ-36), Ben Roberts (Herald-Leader), Mark Story (Herald-Leader), Tyler Thompson (Kentucky Sports Radio), Kyle Tucker (The Athletic), Adam Zagoria (ZagsBlog).
Lose in Elite Eight: Darrell Bird (Cats’ Pause), Ryan Black (Courier Journal), Mitch Brown (Fox 56).
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