Is the Farmer’s Almanac’s winter forecast accurate? Here’s how it did in Boise last year

Every summer, the Farmers’ Almanac releases a winter prediction forecast. The longtime weather forecasting website and publication claims an 80-85% accuracy rate regarding whether certain regions will receive above or below-average temperatures and rainfall.

The Idaho Statesman publishes Farmers’ Almanac’s forecast each summer, including the forecast for winter 2023.

But how accurate are the forecasts for Boise?

How does the Farmers’ Almanac predict the weather?

The Farmers’ Almanac remains somewhat secretive about its methods of predicting the weather, going as far as to keep its leading weather prognosticator hidden under the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee.

But the Farmers’ Almanac does reveal a few secrets, and even then, they’re pretty obscure. The publication writes that for many years, it has used factors such as sunspot cycles, solar activity, tidal forces and past weather patterns to make predictions.

The Farmers’ Almanac also recently added the moon as an essential factor in its predictions, describing our celestial partner as a “meteorological swizzle stick” that stirs up atmospheric disturbances.

How accurate was Boise’s 2022 prediction?

In the sweltering summer of 2022, the Farmers’ Almanac forecast a fairly average to slightly colder than normal winter for the Gem State and other Pacific Northwest states.

The prediction also called for about-normal precipitation in the form of rain and snow.

So, were those predictions accurate?

From the start of December 2022 to the end of February 2023 — meteorological winter — here’s how Boise stacked up temperature-wise compared to the norm:

December 2022: 29.2 degrees (Normal is 32.1 degrees)

January 2023: 33.5 degrees (Normal is 32.2 degrees)

February 2023: 35.1 degrees (Normal is 37.5 degrees)

Season average temperature: 32.6 degrees (Normal is 33.9 degrees)

So, the Farmers’ Almanac’s prediction of a slightly colder-than-average winter was spot on. Here’s how Boise fared on precipitation, which was predicted to be around average. Precipitation totals include rain and snow:

December 2022: 2 inches (Normal is 1.54 inches)

January 2023: 0.71 inches (Normal is 1.41 inches)

February 2023: 0.49 inches (Normal is 1 inch)

Season precipitation totals: 3.2 inches (Normal is 3.95 inches)

Boise leaned more on the side of a lower-than-average season of rainfall despite the Farmers’ Almanac’s prediction. A strong start to the season — which included a seven-day span that saw 6.9 inches of snow drop on Boise — was followed by a pretty dry end to winter.

That winter saw an active Pacific jet stream drawing warm and humid subtropical moisture from the southwest United States toward Boise, keeping temperatures warmer and drier than usual.

What is Boise’s 2023 winter forecast?

This year’s Farmers’ Almanac forecast for the Pacific Northwest, which includes Idaho, Oregon and Washington, calls for seasonably cold and wet weather.

A strong El Niño has kept Boise unseasonably warm and dry throughout November, but snow is finally in the forecast for the City of Trees, starting on Thursday night and into Friday.

The Farmers’ Almanac also forecasts that Boise is in for a good chance of having a white Christmas this year, making it the third straight year with snow on the ground on Christmas Day.