Farmer's Almanac predicts a more intense winter for NJ, but how accurate is that forecast?
Will the "BRRR" be back in New Jersey and the Northeast this upcoming winter? It will be according to the Farmer's Almanac, but it's a prediction that should not necessarily be treated as fact.
The periodical has come out with its annual winter prediction for the 2023 to 2024 season and let's just say the forecast is rather frigid.
The forecast begins with blizzard conditions across northern New England, the North Central States, and areas of New Mexico, Oklahoma and Arkansas. The Almanac credits this to a predicted El Niño later in the year. El Niño is when the water temperature to the west of South America is unusually high, which has been recorded to align with increased winter conditions in north America.
When discussing the extended forecast, the Almanac refers to its "mathematical and astronomical" formula and predicts below-average temperatures and even more stormy conditions.
"For those of you living along the I-95 corridor from Washington to Boston, who saw a lack of wintry precipitation last winter, you should experience quite the opposite, with lots of rain/sleet and snowstorms to contend with," said the Farmer's Almanac website.
However, despite the Almanac's longstanding reputation it is not always the most reliable resource. Just last winter, they predicted an equally stormy and freezing season. We all know it was anything but.
In a review of its 2022 to 2023 winter season prediction, the Almanac made the effort to point out what it got correct, claiming that North America had its coolest December since 2013. However, that is pretty much where the accuracy ends. New Jersey would go on to have its warmest January to date, according to the review.
Reasoning provided by the Almanac for its failed forecast includes the unexpected end to La Niña − when the water temperature to the west of South America is unusually low.
"Typically, La Niña brings frigidly cold weather across the Northern Plains and dry conditions over southern California," the Almanac said. "As we entered the winter of 2022-23, we anticipated it would continue for a 'three-peat.'"
Contrastingly, the Almanac was fairly accurate for its prediction of the 2021 to 2022 winter season. They successfully predicted the winter's warm start, which would soon plummet to freezing temperatures later on. They even were able to successfully predict some of the season's nor'easters.
It is clear that weather patterns can often have a mind of their own, and that it is beginning to seem that whether or not the Farmer's Almanac is an accurate source of information is up in the air.
Regardless, the resource has been an American staple since 1818 and will most likely will not being going away any time soon. With that in mind, we can at least plan to take a look at the yearly predictions − albeit with a grain of salt.
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Farmer's Almanac winter forecast for New Jersey predicts frigid season
