Farmers' Almanac on winter 2023-2024: 'Brrr' with more snow, cold temperatures across US

Mike Snider, USA TODAY
·6 min read
20

After last winter’s unusual weather, the upcoming winter season should be more conventional with cold temperatures, snow and damp conditions, according to the Farmers' Almanac.

In its 207th edition, out now, the Farmers' Almanac is forecasting "The 'brrr' is back" with "more snow and low temperatures nationwide,” wrote editor Pete Geiger in a statement accompanying the extended forecast.

“After a weird and warm winter season last year, this winter should make cold weather fans rejoice – especially those in the Great Lakes, Midwest, and northern New England areas," he said.

Blizzards will usher in an early winter in December, according to the Almanac's forecast, with northern New England, the North Central states, and northern and central areas of New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Arkansas all likely encountering blizzard conditions.

The Farmers' Almanac 2024 forecasts a winter with traditional cool temperatures and snowy weather conditions for the United States.
The Farmers' Almanac 2024 forecasts a winter with traditional cool temperatures and snowy weather conditions for the United States.

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Did the Farmers' Almanac get its winter prediction right last year?

Not exactly, although we could cut the outlet some slack because of the wild weather across the nation. Last year, the Almanac predicted a cold snowy winter for the East and dry conditions for the West.

But California had nine atmospheric rivers. Tornadoes were sighted in Illinois and Iowa in January, while during that month the Northeast had record warm temps. And despite a balmy February forecast for the East, Mount Washington, New Hampshire, recorded the nation's coldest wind chill ever.

The end of La Niña, a weather phenomenon that increases cold and snow in the Northwest and dry conditions in the South, "is one of the reasons we believe winter last year turned out warmer than normal," wrote the Almanac's managing editor Sandi Duncan in a statement.

The Almanac had expected a third La Niña winter, but "by February, it had virtually collapsed. The West turned wet, and the contiguous US ended up with its 17th-warmest winter on record," the Farmers' Almanac said.

The Farmers' Almanac, which originated in 1818, says its longtime fans claim the publication's weather predictions are accurate approximately 80-85% of the time. It uses "a top-secret mathematical and astronomical formula, taking sunspot activity, tidal action, the position of the planet, and many other factors into consideration," the Almanac states.

For winter 2023-2024, the Almanac takes into account the strengthening of El Niño, which should result in more moisture and storms in the southern U.S., its editors said.

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Should you trust the Farmers' Almanac? Well ...

Weather forecasters annually prepare for media requests about the accuracy of almanacs, including The Old Farmer's Almanac, which was founded in 1792 and plans to release its winter forecast on August 29.

"They attract attention and get people talking about it. But a lot of times what they do is use general phrases that are true most any year," Russ Schumacher, a professor and climatologist at Colorado State University, told the Coloradoan last year.

"What does 'glacial and snow-filled' for our area mean? Is that we get a few days of really cold weather and some snow? That happens pretty much every winter.''

A University of Illinois study from 2010, cited by Popular Mechanics in an October 2022 story, found The Old Farmer's Almanac only about 52% accurate over the years, "which is essentially random chance," the news site wrote.

That doesn't make The Farmer's Almanac any less interesting. Here's a closer look at its regional winter forecasts.

The Farmers' Almanac forecast for the Northeast and New England

  • Forecast for Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington D.C.: Those living along the East Coast "who saw a lack of wintry precipitation last winter … should experience quite the opposite, with lots of rain/sleet and snowstorms to contend with," the Almanac forecasts. In January, the second week "will be stormy, snowy, and wet for both the Pacific Coast and the Eastern States," it forecasts. Then, during the second week of February, "an East Coast storm affecting the Northeast and New England states will bring snowfall, cold rain and then frigid temperatures." The first week of March, the Almanac forecasts, "another East Coast storm will bring a wintry mess to this area." Come spring, during the third week of April, a "possible late-season snowfall" is expected "over the high terrain of New England."

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Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwest

  • Forecast for Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin: January and February should bring lower than average temperatures and lots of "snowstorms, sleet, ice (and) rain" around the Great Lakes and Midwest, the Almanac forecasts.

Southeast

  • Forecast for Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia: Florida and the rest of the Southeast "will see a wetter-than-normal winter, with average winter temperatures overall, but a few frosts may send many shivers to snowbirds trying to avoid the cold and snow back home," the Almanac forecasts. In mid-February, the Southeast will experience "unseasonably cold temperatures," and during the first week of March "another East Coast storm will bring a wintry mess to this area."

North Central

  • Forecast for Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming: This winter, the Great Plains and Rockies can expect "plenty of cold temperatures and occasional bouts of storminess, bringing widespread rains and snows," the Almanac forecasts. During the first week of March, "potential blizzards … will remind folks in the North Central states that winter isn’t over yet," it forecasts.

South Central

  • Forecast for Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas: During the middle of January, South Central states can expect "lots of cold temperatures and some storms," the Almanac forecasts. Texas can expect "unseasonably cold weather" during January and February, "with a possible major winter storm in mid-January."

Northwest

  • Forecast for Idaho, Oregon and Washington: "An unusually snowy and wet winter" is forecast for the area, according to the Almanac. Heavy mountain snows are expected the first week of February in the West, including the mountains on the Pacific Coast.

Southwest

  • Forecast for Arizona, California, Nevada and Utah: An El Niño could lead to "copious amounts of rain and snow across the entire Southwest," the Almanac forecasts. The Pacific Coast can expect a "stormy, snowy, and wet" second week of January followed, in the first week of February, by "heavy mountain snows" that will cover the western U.S., it forecasts.

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2024 Farmers' Almanac: Winter with 'more snow and low temperatures'