Will Fayetteville have a white Christmas? Here's what we know.

When it comes to snow in the Cape Fear region, the Grinch has a far better track record than Santa.

Ahhh, but this year maybe — just maybe — the wishes of Snowhounds across the Cape Fear region might be answered.

It's still a long shot, of course. Officially, the National Weather Service traditionally gives the region a 1% chance of a white Christmas. You have to go back to 1989 to find snow on the ground in Fayetteville on Christmas morning.

There have been plenty of Christmases where it's been cold enough for snow, and a few wet, dreary Christmas mornings. But the magical blend of cold and moisture in just the right amounts remains as elusive as spotting Santa's sleigh over Stedman or Rudolph in Raeford.

So, why talk about it at all? The answer lies in an atmospheric alphabet soup that spells the first real chance this region has seen for Christmas snow in more than a decade. And that event, a walloping storm in 2010, didn't arrive until Dec. 26.

Let's be clear at the outset: No one is predicting snow for Christmas. But the chance is there — and that's more than we can usually say.

What's needed for snow

For snow in our neck of the woods, you need three things: 1. Cold locked in place. 2. Moisture that isn't too warm and 3. As un-meteorological as it sounds, a little bit of luck.

There's little question we'll have cold air in the Carolinas. An upper-air pattern well to our west is funneling Arctic air into the South next week. At the same time, ridging over northern Canada and Greenland should help hold this cold in place. The cold needs to stay in place as moisture arrives.

Not just moisture, but moisture that isn't so warm it overcomes the cold in the snow-making areas aloft. This is the dreaded "warm nose," the heartless melter of Snowhound dreams in the Sandhills since time began.

This is where luck comes in. The moisture expected next week will either arrive with low pressure climbing the Carolina coast (known as a Miller A storm) or crossing to our south (known as a "Carolina Slider"). If the low pressure is too close, the moisture is inevitably too warm, melting on the way down. If the low is too far away, or suppressed, there's not enough moisture to work with in the cold dry air. It evaporates before reaching the ground.

FROM THE ARCHIVES: Snow in the Fayetteville area over the years

When is the last time Fayetteville had a white Christmas?

But when everything works, as it did in 1989, the result is Christmas magic. In that event, cold air was locked in place as a low-pressure system formed off the coast. The low was far enough offshore to keep warm air out to sea, but dumped prolific moisture over the southern Cape Fear region.

Fayetteville officially picked up 4 inches of snow, plus some early sleet, and Lumberton had 6 inches. Areas to the south and east were walloped. Clinton and Elizabethtown reported 10 inches of snow, with up to 20 inches in southern Columbus County.

So yes, Virginia — we can see Christmas snow in the Cape Fear region. But will we? If someone is promising white stuff, Santa brought them a better Magic 8 Ball than I got.

Stay tuned!

Got a weather question? Chick Jacobs can be reached at ncweatherhound@gmail.com or NCWeatherhound on Twitter. And he's digging his daughter's old sled out of the attic — just in case.

This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: Will it snow in Fayetteville on Christmas Day?